GREAT site for projections of hospital resource use, time to peak, and deaths

[pat_k]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Check it out. Use the drop down for state-specific estimates.

Current overall projection of deaths is about 80,000 (range 40,000 to 160,000)

----------------
Reddit thread explaining some background:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleWA/comments/fpkg9v/ihme_in_seattle_whom_i_work_for_just_released_our/


------------------
On edit:
Also check out data visualizations here: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19_data/

[Squinch]

1. That's a ridiculously low death estimate. I think BEST case

scenario is at least 10 times that. Probably much worse.

For the US alone.

[pat_k]

2. I'm not so sure. Check out the background (added link to reddit thread about it)

40,000 to 160,000 is still an appalling number.

I am wary of too many "worse case" projections on very limited data floating around.

When (hopefully) the worst case doesn't materialize because we maintain precautions, vastly expand testing, and then, based on the data, implement more targeted containment efforts, the Republican noise machine will be crowing about how we were all just a bunch of fear mongers.

[Squinch]

3. I'm sure. And I don't care what reddit says.

[pat_k]

4. It's the background and expertise of study source...

... not some random reddit discussion.

[Squinch]

5. I dont see anything that says expertise in those links. And 80,000 deaths is

ridiculous.

[pat_k]

6. Did you happen to see "The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures"

[pat_k]

7. It's from IHME -- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. Says "The projections assume continuation of strong social distancing measures & other protective

Right at the top:

The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.

[GeorgeGist]

9. Thanks. Good resource.

[pat_k]

10. In case you missed it, here's another resource for testing and other data by state.

https://covidtracking.com/

It's a project spearheaded by the Atlantic.

It provides testing numbers -- positive, negative, pending, along with hospitalized, and deaths for each state. It grades the quality of the data, which is wonderful.

It also provides links to numbers over time so you can see the changes, as well as links to best sources of information for each state.

And you can download as a spreadsheet, so you can easily add data, like pop, and calculations. (Wish they included figures per capita, but can't have everything.)

[Hermit-The-Prog]

11. Thanks! Good link.

[pat_k]

12. Interesting data visualizations here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19_data/