General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIn what scenario does Covid-19 NOT break out in U.S.?
I simply cannot come up with any way this does not arrive here in force, sooner or later.
We are whistling past the graveyard by not preparing aggressively to mitigate the damage.
It could not occur under a *worse*, least-equipped administration than the current one.
Someone want to try to talk me down? Assure me that this won't be a massive public health shit-show?
The only real question is how soon it arrives.
unblock
(52,441 posts)KewlKat
(5,624 posts)they will be starting human trials shortly.
USA and WSJ had articles if you care to google.
unblock
(52,441 posts)DUgosh
(3,059 posts)I had a frank discussion with my adult daughter yesterday - she has three kids at home. She said Mom your scaring me
jpljr77
(1,004 posts)Then they should be OK, even if they do contract it. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but their chances are good without underlying health (specifically, lung issues).
Don't project your fear of the disease due to your age onto her.
Coventina
(27,223 posts)Stop lecturing others.
jpljr77
(1,004 posts)Here's my link, you care to share yours? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
As with most respiratory illnesses, this is one that impacts older people and people with pre-existing lung conditions.
Coventina
(27,223 posts)Fewer, yes, but not none.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Coventina
(27,223 posts)jberryhill
(62,444 posts)...will make you weep
You'll cry and cry, and try to sleep
But sleep won't come, the whole night through
Your lecturing heart will tell on you
When tears come down like falling rain
You'll toss around, and call my name
You'll walk the floor, the way I do
Your lecturing heart will tell on you
Coventina
(27,223 posts)AllyCat
(16,259 posts)The Chinese doctor that raised the alarm about the disease at the end of last year? Healthy. Dead. This is NOT just a disease of the old and infirm. Lets plan since our government isn't going to.
bronxiteforever
(9,287 posts)Tipperary
(6,930 posts)What did you say to her?
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Tipperary
(6,930 posts)DUgosh
(3,059 posts)Has disabilities and low immunity. Among other things I asked her to consider the possibility of an extended quarantine in late spring or summer, stocking extra supplies required for his condition, planting a bigger garden, and adding new chickens to her coop. And no - someone suggested I was projecting my fears of catching the disease myself and asked me to stop scaring her - to that person I say nothing except read the Center of Disease Control latest advisory. My main concern was for this precious child.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,452 posts)I have less faith in this (mis-)Administration than President Obama's but everybody's a**es are on the line here and we have the Democrats in the House, so we have to just hope (I guess) that everything turns out ok and do what we can do, individually. Nobody knows how this is going to play out or how bad it's going to be. There have been some other stuff in previous years that seemed scary but petered out fairly quickly (remember Ebola?)
defacto7
(13,485 posts)It's extremly deadly but considerably less contagious.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,452 posts)I understand the differences that we're dealing with here.
Eko
(7,403 posts)empedocles
(15,751 posts)nitpicker
(7,153 posts)AllyCat
(16,259 posts)after someone posted it here. It really shows how few people are recovering from this disease. Of the cases in the US (more than doubled due to the Diamond Princess cases), only FIVE have recovered. And I've been using this tracker for weeks. That is an indication of how long many of these people are sick. Can you imagine missing 2-4 weeks of work?? In our culture??
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,544 posts)meadowlander
(4,412 posts)The best response is to eat your veggies, get enough sleep, stay home if you are sick and seek medical help immediately if you start to develop symptoms of pneumonia.
On its best day theres not much the CDC can do to improve outcomes of a pandemic compared with what individuals can do to build up their immune system, prevent the spread and take reasonable precautions.
Skittles
(153,261 posts)because they don't get sick pay
meadowlander
(4,412 posts)that put them at risk of death if they are infected. Would you rather miss a few hundred bucks pay or be partially responsible for someones death or lifelomg pulmonary issues?
Sounds like a good time to start talking to your company about its sick leave policy. They lose a lot more money when one employee infects thirty others than they do just paying the first person to stay home.
Coventina
(27,223 posts)Sorry, but I've been there.
I'm not going to starve in virtuous isolation because we live in an oligarchy.
(that is not where I am NOW, thank goodness, but having been there and having to work when sick, I don't judge those who do).
meadowlander
(4,412 posts)But it is still a choice.
I'm going to have severe asthma for the rest of my life because of a bout of pneumonia I went through last year after I picked up the flu from a coworker. That's hundreds of dollars a month I have to pay out of pocket for inhalers (and chose whether I get to eat or not) for something I had no choice at all in. And I count myself lucky I didn't die. I spent a few weeks where that was looking like a pretty good option.
There are very few jobs that are so life and death that there are no better options than making sick people come to work. There's a lot of office jobs people can do at home for a few days. Or you could offer to make up the time picking up extra shifts once you're better. You can sell shit or let the power bill slide or get a payday advance loan. There are other solutions. Your health and the health and lives of the people you come into contact with is more important than any temporary financial problem.
You can advocate for yourself and your coworkers to your boss and put the business case to them that their current sick leave policy is actually costing them money. Now's a great time to do it.
It's not about judgment but it's not about sitting on your hands saying "oh well, what can you do?" either. The people most at risk are children and the elderly. Standing up for yourself is standing up for them as well.
Coventina
(27,223 posts)When I was in that position, I worked at an answering service.
(Something that really doesn't exist anymore).
There was no doing it from home, and there was no working "extra" shifts to make up for lost time. (There were four workstations only).
Sell shit? What shit exactly do poor people working paycheck to paycheck have to sell?
And take a loan from predatory lenders? Why? So they can get even more in debt and make their financial situation even worse?
From your post, it sounds like you have no idea what it's like to be barely making it.
Like I said, I'm not in that place anymore, but the lessons I learned from being there make me a lot more sympathetic to the working poor than you apparently are.
meadowlander
(4,412 posts)I was unemployed for about four years thanks to the Global Financial Crisis.
But the reality is that it's better to miss three days pay and go into debt than land yourself in the hospital with complications because you tried to work through a serious illness and then spend the rest of your life paying for medications. Putting someone else in that situation isn't much better.
That's a shit choice but that's the choice people are being given by short-sighted sick leave policies. And the only solution is for people to advocate for themselves and to work together to get those policies changed.
Rail at me all you like but that doesn't change how illness works.
Coventina
(27,223 posts)Yes, I think sick leave should be mandatory for all businesses.
But it's not, and so poor people will work when sick rather than go hungry, become homeless, etc.
Nature Man
(869 posts)don't get to "advocate" for themselves.
That's called insubordination or "talking back."
What? are you going to say they should "pick themselves up by their bootstraps" or "go to college" so they can get a better job?
meadowlander
(4,412 posts)Believe it or not there are 20 countries in the world with mandatory paid sick leave. There are 10 states that mandate paid sick leave (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington). Is yours one of them? No? Call your Congressperson and ask why not.
71 percent of employers offer paid sick leave. If your employer isn't one of them, ask them why when all of the science shows it costs their business money.
Not having sick leave is not an inevitable human condition that follows on from poverty. It is a systemic failure. And we all have the power to effect change if we speak up together, even when we are poor. Thinking otherwise is just learned helplessness.
Why do we have weekends or 40 hour work weeks or a minimum wage or disability pay? Because people were insubordinate and talked back and took risks and made sacrifices. That's how change happens.
All of those rights are slipping now in part because people are too afraid to do what their grandparents and great-grandparents did to win them those rights in the first place.
Coventina
(27,223 posts)Nature Man
(869 posts)selling you your stuff at the store, and cleaning up the messes usually MUST go to work when they are sick.
The "help" doesn't get to talk back.
You seem like a person who has never been voiceless or powerless.
You say, "sell shit:" lots of people only have cheap chinese junk - pawn shop will give you $50 MAX for any tv
You say, "let the power bill slide:" although electric utilities can work with you, once you're behind the 8 ball, it's hard to get out. And don't have trouble paying your payment agreement - then the whole thing becomes due all at once.
You say, "get a payday advance loan:" get for-fucking-real. Predatory, harmful 900% interest loans HELP NO ONE.
The voiceless, powerless folks with the shittiest jobs that have maximum public contact will be the ones going to work when they are sick.
LiberalArkie
(15,733 posts)it
Ex Lurker
(3,816 posts)1. The virus mutates into a less dangerous strain. No guarantees but it could happen.
2. The arrival of summer stalls the spread. There is some indication that the virus doesn't like hot, humid conditions. It is not spreading nearly as fast in countries where the weather is currently warm.
3. Discovery of a quick, inexpensive treatment. I'm hoping the chloraquine trials pan out.
roamer65
(36,748 posts)The 1918-1920 flu pandemic continued into summers.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)roamer65
(36,748 posts)It slowed, but it did not stop.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)Very different virus though.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)That was already determind.
Ms. Toad
(34,124 posts)that seasons do not affect it.
The characteristic that makes flu and colds seasonal is that its transission method lends itself to broader distribution in the winter when peole are confined inside with sick people. Since COVID19 transmission works the same way as with colds and the flu, I would expect it to be the same.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)It's similar to the rhinovirus and not a flu virus. One of the worries about transmission was that it is not affected by cold weather and stays infectious on surfaces for long periods. I've read we need to prepare for a virus that will not dissipate seasonally. Let me know if I'm wrong.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)I ask myself "what can I do about it?"
in this case next to nothing so I'm just not going to worry about it. other than the precautions you'd take with any other kind of flu virus what can you do?
defacto7
(13,485 posts)Cardio exercise. It won't hurt either way.
Skittles
(153,261 posts)so once it takes hold here it will spread quickly
Coventina
(27,223 posts)abqtommy
(14,118 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)My biggest concern is that Trump will try to cancel the election or pull some other dirty trick using the virus as an excuse.
intrepidity
(7,346 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)Still not that worried
intrepidity
(7,346 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)really start to worry. But I am pretty much set for about 2 weeks at least. Also, I might get really bored due to this company imposed quarantine. We'll see.
Baitball Blogger
(46,775 posts)They are going to be the next big trend.
Beartracks
(12,827 posts)... it occurs to me that someone will have handled each of my pick-up items, and I have no idea where their hands have been.
==========
Baitball Blogger
(46,775 posts)My husband said that when he flew up for business he saw two types of people wearing masks. Chinese passengers and food restaurant servers.
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)substitutions.(I wish they would contact me.) We just started using it last week.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Last edited Sun Mar 15, 2020, 10:26 AM - Edit history (1)
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)My DIL placed the first order.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)and a 12 pack Pelligrino.
Usually, whatever you dont get, they give you double of the substitute!
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)3 family sizes, so that worked out.
Very convenient, I don't know what took me so long to use this service.
DarthDem
(5,257 posts)It's good to hear some positive stories amid all of the others. Thanks.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Make sure you do the survey afterwards and remember the associates name.
I always give them high marks; they do a great job!
denem
(11,045 posts)JCMach1
(27,585 posts)If it hits Dubai, London, Netherlands, Germany, Paris we are getting it...
roamer65
(36,748 posts)It will come here.
The 1918-1920 flu pandemic came during that time in about 3 waves which varied by location.
One of the waves was in the US and it killed about 675,000.
No telling if it will have a similar outcome. WWI exasperated it and medical care was primitive comparatively. 50 to 100 million deaths worldwide.
metalbot
(1,058 posts)I don't think this is going to be a health crisis in the US, but I think the reaction to the potential health crisis is going to be a financial crisis.
If the US were getting to the point of having what we suspected were thousands of carriers out in public, you'd see massive closures in the US. Factories would shut down. Sporting events would shut down. Schools would close. Government offices would close. Essential services would need to remain open, but you'd see far fewer people deciding to go out to eat and sit in a room with strangers. Those measures, along with a massive effort to disinfect everything in public places, will likely prevent a massive spread of the virus. Unfortunately, you might have to keep these measures in place for an extended period of time.
Don't fall for a 24/7 news cycle that literally has every incentive to make you worried so that you watch the news.
The economic impact that a shut down as described above might have would be enormous. Most Americans don't have the savings to weather through several weeks without a paycheck if their employer shuts down, and many employers couldn't make payroll even if they wanted to keep people on. When employers stop paying, people stop spending, leading to further cutbacks by employers, leading to more people off of work. For many middle-class Americans, a sudden interruption in income now means that they can't pay their mortgages, and we'll see a spike in defaults. That spike in defaults will drive down the housing market, making defaults more likely since people can't even sell their homes for what they owe.
intrepidity
(7,346 posts)metalbot
(1,058 posts)My Feb 28 post: If the US were getting to the point of having what we suspected were thousands of carriers out in public, you'd see massive closures in the US. Factories would shut down. Sporting events would shut down. Schools would close. Government offices would close. Essential services would need to remain open, but you'd see far fewer people deciding to go out to eat and sit in a room with strangers. Those measures, along with a massive effort to disinfect everything in public places, will likely prevent a massive spread of the virus. Unfortunately, you might have to keep these measures in place for an extended period of time.
I think it's playing out pretty much exactly as described - we're averting the health crisis by taking drastic measures that impact the economy, and those efforts, in conjunction with greatly ramped up testing, are going to let us control the spike to manageable levels. More importantly, we're going to be leaving these measures in place for a long time.
I think it comes down to what you consider to be a "massive public health shit show" as referred to in the OP. The Trump administration's handling of this has been a total shit-show, but leadership at the local and state level has been far more coherent (on the whole).
I'll be surprised if COVID-19 is one of the leading causes of death in the US this year for any age group. That isn't to minimize the severity - this is NOT "just the flu", but the actions we're taking to control the spread are completely unprecedented. Also, surviving the illness may have long term health effects that impact both quality of life and longevity. On the plus side, everything that we do to prevent COVID also works for the flu, so we might also see a reduction in flu related fatalities.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Seriously folks.
intrepidity
(7,346 posts)Still rolling your eyes?
cwydro
(51,308 posts)So yes.
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)have been to China therefore they don't add to the numbers.