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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!!
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. Im not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
·
13h
Replying to
@DrEricDing
2/ We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...
Link to tweet
?fbclid=IwAR1HVWO-rzMo_FLpZE319rwFVetdb9k4_zpST3Ak1gzLwcE8kgJZ6fmpcv0
jimfields33
(16,050 posts)Trump loves this. What easier way to close the borders completely. Stop all immigration. I bet next week he does this.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)and if done correctly and with right intentions
China has stopped all public transportation between provinces...
But Carrie Lam refuses to close the Hong Kong border... Hong Kongers are furious !!!!
If this guy and his colleagues are right.... whoa....
maryellen99
(3,790 posts)I dont think stopping immigration will make a difference.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)They really dont know how many are infected, its China, so all estimates are iffy
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)(1 person, spreads to 14 people). This quickly could turn into a disaster, we are not prepared for.
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)bdamomma
(63,941 posts)Last edited Sun Jan 26, 2020, 02:27 PM - Edit history (1)
this is tRumps way to start his own master race.greytdemocrat
(3,299 posts)Just trying to make DU look stupid???
bdamomma
(63,941 posts)with Miller and his Zero tolerance I wouldn't put anything pass them.
Didn't you hear they don't want pregnant mothers from other countries to have their babies inside of the US, because their children will become US citizens. Countries that were mentioned Russia and China.
Amishman
(5,559 posts)Assuming this thing really is an R value if 3.8 and a fatality rate around 3-5% (and that is a big if). Twice as communicable as influenza, several times deadlier, with no vaccinations or existing immunities. The 1918 flu pandemic had an R value of about 2 and a fatality rate of 2.5%. annual modern flu outbreaks (with our vaccination efforts) have an R value of less than 2 and a fatality rate of 0.1%
It would explain why China reacted immediately with the extreme action of quarantine of the entire city.
I had hoped and assumed this was just another scare, but it might really be extremely legitimately scary
NRaleighLiberal
(60,028 posts)(Stephen King - The Stand)
silverweb
(16,402 posts)Sugar Smack
(18,748 posts)I'm a geek like that.
Snackshack
(2,541 posts)I will never forget the line...
He left her a dollar tip crawling with death...
rusty fender
(3,428 posts)Bats transmit 60+ diseases to humans. SARS? Yup, it was the consumption of fruit bats. Ebola? Yup. Marburg viruses? Yup.
Have the humans who eat bats learned nothing? Yup.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)in my 5-6 trips to China-- all over.. I never ran into anybody eating bats. :> ) Of course that's rather anecdotal..
MFM008
(19,826 posts)They have identified this as coming from a type of snake. 🐍🐍🐍🐍
joeaddison
(17 posts)I don't think a bat can win the election.
Liberalhammer
(576 posts)Who eat bats.
Arthur_Frain
(1,868 posts)The result was, of course, predictable, and entirely the libtards fault.
WhiskeyGrinder
(22,475 posts)sarge43
(28,946 posts)WhiskeyGrinder
(22,475 posts)Arthur_Frain
(1,868 posts)But I am. Really dont think its necessary to put the sarcasm icon on there when its that far out there.
WhiskeyGrinder
(22,475 posts)dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)Liberalhammer
(576 posts)The penis is bad, the gun is good.
Arthur_Frain
(1,868 posts)I mean this is some really serious shit, this level of communicability. I hate that my first thought, after that, was how is the orange turd going to try and spin this.
Liberalhammer
(576 posts)Trump knows more about virology than anyone.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Ms. Toad
(34,119 posts)It probably came from eating snake meat.
Although it appears that, in this case, the snake may have eaten the bat.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/22/health/snakes-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-conversation-partner/index.html
rusty fender
(3,428 posts)Dont eat rodents, bats, and reptiles
defacto7
(13,485 posts)pangaia
(24,324 posts)Baclava
(12,047 posts)....thats when the shit really hits the fan
Anybody seeing Mother Abigail?
spinbaby
(15,092 posts)Do you really think you can quarantine a Chinese city of 11 million during the New Year holiday and not have a few people get out?
Liberalhammer
(576 posts)Its going world wide.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)irisblue
(33,041 posts)His Twitter bio... "DrEricDing
Public health scientist👨🏻?🔬/ Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Science advocacy / Taught for 15 years at Harvard / NYT-featured pharma whistleblower
Virginia & Washington DCscholar.harvard.edu/ericdingJoined January 2009
This tweet, just past 1pm,eastern time, today
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) Tweeted:
UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread: https://t.co/Gg2vyIevL4
Link to tweet
raccoon
(31,130 posts)chowder66
(9,093 posts)If it goes up it's way more catastrophic.
On edit: it's at 2.5, the 3.8 was an initial estimate. Like an earthquake, it can first be estimated to be a 6.5 but actually was a 6.3 or less.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)spinbaby
(15,092 posts)Maybe a coincidence, maybe not. The news media seems bent on blaming the outbreak on Chinese people eating weird shit.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)brainwashed sheep when its time to eat.
"hey yoooo.. come ooon girls....come on girls....yeeey yoooo.."
That was my call when I took care of about 200 sheep....
really dumb animals..
But, that is their function in the world...
Baclava
(12,047 posts)But its the Chinese, and I have heard reports it can be passed on through eye contact, so masks dont even help
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)I missed that..
not funny but... fuunny...
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Masks aren't enough, sprayed in the face from infected cough, you get it on your hands, rub your eyes, etc
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)sensor.
My Pet Orangutan
(9,343 posts)Over the top alarmist language in response to an emerging, if urgent public health situation is irresponsible, and a blot on Dr Feigl-Ding's reputation.
The current R_0 estimate is 2.5. The R_0 of cited 3.8 was amongst the earliest (highly speculative) estimates. An R_0 of 2.5, is in line with the common flu.
Language like "themonuclear pandemic level bad" has no place in a public health discussion. He will be rightly be censured by his colleagues.
pbmus
(12,422 posts)herding cats
(19,569 posts)With an uncertainty range of uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5.
Summary Report 3
Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. It is likely, based on the experience of SARS and MERS-CoV, that the number of secondary cases caused by a case of 2019-nCoV is highly variable with many cases causing no secondary infections, and a few causing many. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China and the extent to which the populations of affected areas have adopted risk-reducing behaviours. In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China; uncertainties include the severity spectrum of the disease caused by this virus and whether cases with relatively mild symptoms are able to transmit the virus efficiently. Identification and testing of potential cases need to be as extensive as is permitted by healthcare and diagnostic testing capacity including the identification, testing and isolation of suspected cases with only mild to moderate disease (e.g. influenza-like illness), when logistically feasible.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
Link to tweet
If you're interested in following the epidemiology, The Lancet has made all their content on this virus free currently.
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
https://twitter.com/TheLancet
My Pet Orangutan
(9,343 posts)Reprehensible.
herding cats
(19,569 posts)it was extremely unprofessional.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)I'm glad several people here have responded with more info...
I have 2 friends in Wuhan one of whom is in the USA now and debating whether to go back. He plays in the Wuhan Philharmonic...
herding cats
(19,569 posts)There is currently a travel ban in place.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)herding cats
(19,569 posts)They've only just tightened it down even more. Just suggest to your friend to stay safe at this point.
Unless I were working in a capacity as to have an extradition team, I'd not enter Wuhan currently.
It's not good there at this moment.
Scotch-Irish
(464 posts)So, it's already here.
mahina
(17,726 posts)The original article and then the informed discussion we find below. Thank you DU.
benld74
(9,911 posts)peggysue2
(10,846 posts)The infection quotient has been reduced from what I understand, from the initial, alarming 3.8 to 2.6. Still worrisome, enough that we can't completely dismiss the danger.
Strange, too, that the other night I rewatched the movie Contagion with Gwyneth Paltrow (limited appearance since she turns out to be one of the first infected) and Matt Damon playing her husband. The movie provides a credible scenario of how one of these nasty viruses, once turning into pandemic strength, would be handled by the world's medical community, the political leadership and the public at large. Panic is the last thing you want to encourage, particularly early on although panic is what you're ultimately going to get if any communicable disease becomes widespread.
I wonder if the doctor's reaction is tied to the admitted apprehension in the medical community that a worldwide pandemic is not a question of if but when. Netflix is running a documentary now--Pandemic--expressing just that because of the incredible amount of traveling we do around the world. It makes containment really difficult and is why scientists are involved in world-wide monitoring, an attempt to identify unusual viral strains before they infect large populations.
In any case, I think it's wise to keep up on the developing stories. One tidbit I read indicated that infected individuals can show no viral symptoms for up to 3 weeks. This could be nasty.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)What could possibly go wrong...?
peggysue2
(10,846 posts)Trump is the worst sort of person to have in leadership in a true crisis. That being said, even if this is a false alarm, I could easily see Trump and his cronies closing down all our borders, using the virus as an excuse.
Without a doubt, he would capitalize on any ensuing panic and fear. Because it's what wanna-be dictators do.
He's as bad if not worse than the damn virus!
bdamomma
(63,941 posts)than the virus. I believe that.
alphafemale
(18,497 posts)The quarter annual apocalypse.
I have not an ounce of panic left to give.
Snackshack
(2,541 posts)What the R0 value represents that is very alarming. Over the span of half a day yesterday of reading the reports on this this virus went from the quarantine of the one city in one region of China to encompass some 50million people in several countries. That is a pretty rapid progression.
OAITW r.2.0
(24,695 posts)villages inside rural china. 100's of millions were on the move the past few days. This could be a nuclear level epidemic. Will China re-open transportation back to the factories in Guangdong Province and Shenzen? The social chaos could be staggering.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)I think China has stopped public transportation between provinces...
which, of course, doesn;t stop people from traveling from Guangzhou or Shenzhen, for example, to anywhere else in Guangdong..
OAITW r.2.0
(24,695 posts)I think CNY was today, so now it's about the implications of returning. This will be a bigger story this week, I am sure.
lapfog_1
(29,234 posts)if 1 billion people catch the virus around the planet... 40 Million may die.
And 1 billion isn't out of the question.
This is a huge pandemic possibility.
102 years after the Spanish Flu pandemic that infected 500M (1/3 of the world population) and killed at least 50M.
Ms. Toad
(34,119 posts)56 out of 2019.
k2qb3
(374 posts)Not enough cases are resolved.
The death rate vs. documented recoveries is way higher than that, even if all the numbers we're getting from China were accurate.
Ms. Toad
(34,119 posts)That makes the death likely higher than 2.77 (since the more recent infections have not yet had time to die).
But yes - as there are more infections we will get a more accurate death rate.
lapfog_1
(29,234 posts)40 people died.
I suspect the reduced rate is due to early detection and treatment (to sustain the victim through the infection)
Ms. Toad
(34,119 posts)have not yet had time to die.
The death rate on the first 1000 (presumably now post-infection) is likely more accurate.
Initech
(100,118 posts)The_jackalope
(1,660 posts)But it hasn't happened yet. Maybe the next one will do it.
The planet can only handle 10 million or so humans, so something will eventually come along and restore order.
DesertRat
(27,995 posts)I_UndergroundPanther
(12,480 posts)Gets it and infects the whole gop
one can hope.
bdamomma
(63,941 posts)only hope, he did say "he's the chosen one".
pansypoo53219
(21,005 posts)contagion? was very good.
pansypoo53219
(21,005 posts)did not mention live markets.
LiberalLoner
(9,762 posts)Ilsa
(61,709 posts)The pandemic yet to come, perhaps very soon.
Between people consuming animals carrying pathogens, and permafrost melting releasing pathogens that we've never encountered before, I think we might be fucked.
pansypoo53219
(21,005 posts)Ilsa
(61,709 posts)NickB79
(19,277 posts)Excellent read.
greytdemocrat
(3,299 posts)Admit to, it's probably a lot worse.