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Me.

(35,454 posts)
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:17 PM Dec 2019

OMG...The UK Elections Are Not A Predictor Of What Will Happen Here

It was unexpected so that means the Betrayer will win, it is a caution of going too far left, BS could've won that election, must stay right in the middle, the Dems are depressed, the Cons see hope. OMG...

38 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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OMG...The UK Elections Are Not A Predictor Of What Will Happen Here (Original Post) Me. Dec 2019 OP
Right?! eissa Dec 2019 #1
And Boris is really popular in the UK? lapfog_1 Dec 2019 #27
i dont think it's irrelevant, tho. i do think we are one cycle further in the process. mopinko Dec 2019 #2
And Yet There Is An Opinion Piece In The Guardian Saying BS Could've Won Me. Dec 2019 #3
The Guardian says a lot of silly things... comradebillyboy Dec 2019 #23
Yes rainy Dec 2019 #5
Bingo. nt KPN Dec 2019 #28
I saw that on CNN and was slapping my forehead Proud Liberal Dem Dec 2019 #4
Recommended. H2O Man Dec 2019 #6
The Guardian said simplicity was definitely a factor in Johnson's win. octoberlib Dec 2019 #13
I generally like H2O Man Dec 2019 #17
Corbyn himself was the #1 reason, but Labour members who were out canvassing octoberlib Dec 2019 #18
Good points. H2O Man Dec 2019 #19
... Me. Dec 2019 #25
INteresting... Me. Dec 2019 #24
There's a lot of people that just aren't that into policy and politics. octoberlib Dec 2019 #26
While I would H2O Man Dec 2019 #30
This Me. Dec 2019 #31
Simplicity is an enormous factor right now Awsi Dooger Dec 2019 #34
Thanks for your post. Very interesting. octoberlib Dec 2019 #38
Thank you. KPN Dec 2019 #29
It's not irrelevant, though NewJeffCT Dec 2019 #7
WAKE UP! Johnny2X2X Dec 2019 #8
Exactly! OneBro Dec 2019 #9
Actually we predicted what happened in the UK, lol. But not really. octoberlib Dec 2019 #10
I remember scoffing at the idea Dotard could win treestar Dec 2019 #11
Polish plumbers, specifically, lol I kept seeing Brexiters complain about them on Twitter. octoberlib Dec 2019 #14
The doom and gloom nay sayers are out in force Andy823 Dec 2019 #12
It really is not that simple. Big Blue Marble Dec 2019 #21
It's not that hard either. Andy823 Dec 2019 #36
I at least had some optimism in my post yesterday. Initech Dec 2019 #33
I agree with you Andy823 Dec 2019 #35
Oh I had relatives that either didn't vote or threw away their vote. Initech Dec 2019 #37
This message was self-deleted by its author tenderfoot Dec 2019 #15
Hopefully you're right. Mike 03 Dec 2019 #16
It's not a predictor, but it is a warning DavidDvorkin Dec 2019 #20
I don't think Corbyn and Labour's crushing loss was unexpected at all. Corbyn's comradebillyboy Dec 2019 #22
What happened in the UK can be boiled down to one word: DISINTEREST. Initech Dec 2019 #32

eissa

(4,238 posts)
1. Right?!
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:21 PM
Dec 2019

So much hand-wringing a year away from election!

We're not the UK, we have a deeply unpopular president who hasn't grown his base beyond the cultish 30-40%, and we don't even know who his challenger will be. Calm the fuck down!

lapfog_1

(29,199 posts)
27. And Boris is really popular in the UK?
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:35 PM
Dec 2019

Please do not, do NOT, count on Trump being unpopular as a key to getting your favorite candidate into office.

mopinko

(70,092 posts)
2. i dont think it's irrelevant, tho. i do think we are one cycle further in the process.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:23 PM
Dec 2019

tho corbyn was bernie's guy, the way people see him, feel about him, is more like hillary.

my first thought was that a lot of those people are accidental leaders who will be jettisoned in the next election.
labour will come up w a better candidate next time, and many will swing back. esp after the shit shower they are about to get.

H2O Man

(73,537 posts)
6. Recommended.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:33 PM
Dec 2019

Labour lost because Corbyn is a terrible person, not because he is too far left. Luckily, none of our candidates is as hateful an individual as Corbyn.

octoberlib

(14,971 posts)
13. The Guardian said simplicity was definitely a factor in Johnson's win.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:44 PM
Dec 2019

Don't come at voters with 800 pages of policy changes because #1 : it confuses them #2 they think you're full of shit. Corbyn couldn't explain how he was going to pay for anything.

H2O Man

(73,537 posts)
17. I generally like
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:49 PM
Dec 2019

The Guardian. However, in this instance, I think that Corbyn's personality was the #1 reason. Thus, it follows that people didn't trust him. I base my opinion in large part upon communications with family and friends there who would have voted for Labour if anyone else was running. It had zero to do with Corbyn's being "too far left." It was entirely based upon his being a shithead.

octoberlib

(14,971 posts)
18. Corbyn himself was the #1 reason, but Labour members who were out canvassing
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:59 PM
Dec 2019

complained about the length of the manifesto. Even Momentum leader Jon Lansman said this was a problem.

Manifesto

There was an incredible amount on offer in Labour’s 2019 manifesto It’s Time for Real Change. From free care for the elderly, free university tuition fees, reducing the voting age to 16 and payouts for Waspi women, the party attempted to speak to every sector of society. Some candidates reported that they had so much to rattle through on the doorstep that when new policy ideas dropped halfway through the campaign – such as slashed rail fares – they shied away from discussing them so as not to overload people with commitments. A Labour source said: “It wasn’t that people didn’t like the policies, people thought there was too many of them. The free broadband was really unpopular. We hadn’t spent two years making the case for it and we just dumped it on them … so people thought ‘this is a weird luxury, why on earth are we being offered this?” Jon Lansman, leader of the Corbyn campaign group, Momentum, said: “The manifesto was too detailed and too long. It was a programme for 10 years, not for government.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/five-reasons-why-labour-lost-the-election


In other words, focus on a couple issues and ram them home.

H2O Man

(73,537 posts)
19. Good points.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:05 PM
Dec 2019

Very valid points. I agree with that completely. Yet eben the most focused and realistic platform will fall flat if the candidate on top is known to be a petty, hateful turd.

octoberlib

(14,971 posts)
26. There's a lot of people that just aren't that into policy and politics.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:30 PM
Dec 2019

I think keep it simple is a good strategy.

H2O Man

(73,537 posts)
30. While I would
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:37 PM
Dec 2019

have preferred a slightly different approach, I support the current Articles 100%. For I recognize that I am a spectator as well as a citizen, and that I have not participated in the discussions that led to the decisions made. And I trust those who were to pick the very best approach.

Plus I remember that Malcolm X often said, "Make it plain."

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
34. Simplicity is an enormous factor right now
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 04:06 PM
Dec 2019

Ignore that at our peril. I attend lots of golf tournaments and college football games and other events where white America dominates, especially older generations. It is incredible how simplistic they are. I was in Naples attending an LPGA golf tournament a few weeks ago. This was during the impeachment hearings. It is an older white area. I was stuck in a large shuttle bus back and forth to the event for 4 days, listening to people discuss the hearings and politics in general. It was nauseating but at the same time enlightening. Every time I'm in that setting the standout aspect is that details and policy mean nothing to them. They form a quick unbreakable position, based on a handful of variables at most.

There was a Democratic debate smack in the middle of that golf tournament. I heard it discussed in the shuttle bus the following day. To my surprise and relief, they didn't automatically reject the entire field. Some among the talkers seemed willing to consider a Democrat above Trump as long as the few variables cooperated. The term being thrown around was "too far out there." It meant too liberal. Biden seemed to have greatest acceptance. "That's what he has going for him, he's not too far out there." The most vocal guy said that. Then a woman seated across immediately agreed. "Oh definitely. The rest of them are just too far out there." Then a third guy piped up, "But not Bloomberg. The only two I'd consider are Biden and Bloomberg." A handful of voices instantly agreed. That surprised me. I hadn't been thinking about Bloomberg as viable. Then the original guy summarized, "Biden is in his 70s but he can sound older than that. He gets confused. Not Bloomberg. He is 70s but still sharp." That summary gained unanimous agreement. Granted, we're talking about 8-10 people but I don't discount that type of thing. We have to rescue from white America, not continue to forfeit.

Trump won the debates against Hillary in 2016. That makes no sense point to point or how they were viewed at the time. But the exit polling indicated that voters who chose based on the debates preferred Trump. Whenever I'm in that white America setting I never have to ask why. Trump in all three debates quickly seized upon the jobs loss aspect in states like Ohio. Hillary was rambling about policies and directing people to visit her website. Our primary debates always spotlight issues. That's what our more sophisticated audience wants to hear. It does not translate well to a general election. We can't have someone rambling about the Dingell-Norwood bill while the other side has a BS artist up there emphasizing that I'll keep you safe and lower your taxes and bring back your jobs.

It is not a Rachel Maddow world. Nobody likes it when I rip her and emphasize that, but I'll continue. I am never surprised by results like the British election because I don't get suckered by Rachel Maddow types, ones who focus on day to day policy debate -- those 800 pages -- while completely whiffing the big picture. Side by side weeks from an election and BS is enormous benefit, unless our candidate is extra special and doesn't forfeit vital points via demographic and ideology alone. Female is forfeiting points, whether we like it or not. Overly liberal is forfeiting points. There was a reason I instantly spotlighted those election night 2018 exit polls with Andrew Gillum rejected by 44% (later amended to 46%) as too liberal for the state, and likewise Stacey Abrams rejected by 42% for the same reason. There is always a hint 2 years earlier toward how the electorate is thinking.

Also, we are already being outworked. As a Miamian it is evident to me every cycle. I am a lifetime registered Democrat and have never voted for a single Republican for any office. I have been contacted 3 times by a political party in the past 2 months, twice by mailing and once by phone. All 3 times it has been by Republicans. That has never happened previously. Since I am a white baby boomer male I have a feeling they are targeting people like me because I fit the profile of someone who would ordinarily support their side.

They are throwing out specifics like my registration realities, while applying simplistic generalities. I wish Democrats would get the hint and do the same. That's why I proposed the campaign slogan, "Remarkable You."

Steal a few percent instead of throwing away a few percent

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)
7. It's not irrelevant, though
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:34 PM
Dec 2019

Brexit passing in early 2016 despite the polls saying a narrow loss was similar to Trump - the polls had a narrow loss for Trump, but he "won" the election.

Johnny2X2X

(19,060 posts)
8. WAKE UP!
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:35 PM
Dec 2019

It's Russia!!!! Russia made these UK results happen! And they're going to try their best to make it happen here too. And it's more than Russia, it's propaganda at a level we weren't ready to combat in 2016.

Unless we also have a high tech Social Media campaign to push our own propaganda to combat The GOP and Russia's we will not win!

OneBro

(1,159 posts)
9. Exactly!
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:36 PM
Dec 2019

People should relax. Remember when the concern trolls were afraid that Clinton could lose Wisconsin and Michigan. Boy, those trolls sure got a keyboard lashing on DU. Best to just . . . relax.

octoberlib

(14,971 posts)
10. Actually we predicted what happened in the UK, lol. But not really.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:38 PM
Dec 2019

Boris isn't loved there. People just hated Corbyn more. If Labour would have run a better candidate , they probably would have won.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
11. I remember scoffing at the idea Dotard could win
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:43 PM
Dec 2019

in 2016, when DU had posters claiming that the Brexit vote meant Dotard could win. I could not see how that could necessarily follow - this is a different country. So maybe it was a coincidence. I think the idea was that America and Britain are having similar tracks going on when it comes to white Deplorables. They too had a rural vote that promoted the more right-wing views on race, and it wasn't even a different race, but they felt too many other Europeans were in the UK due to the EU - it was Poles that bothered them!





Andy823

(11,495 posts)
12. The doom and gloom nay sayers are out in force
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:44 PM
Dec 2019

here on DU. It happens every election cycle, and sadly many here fall for their bullshit. It's all about divide and conquer.

If we get out the vote, we will win, and the trolls know that.

Big Blue Marble

(5,075 posts)
21. It really is not that simple.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:11 PM
Dec 2019

I wish it were. We are at a precipice and many feel the extreme danger that awaits if we fall off.
There are many forces at play; most of them corrupt.

Seeing what happened in Britain, should give us pause. People are being manipulated to vote against
the best interests of their countries and themselves. And that should concern you and anyone who supports
democratic government.

We are living with the nightmare of Trump now and horrified to know how close he is to winning a second term.

Andy823

(11,495 posts)
36. It's not that hard either.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 04:49 PM
Dec 2019

We can't give up, we must do everything we can to get rid of trump. We can't do that will "doom and gloom". If Democrats get out and vote we win.

Initech

(100,068 posts)
33. I at least had some optimism in my post yesterday.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:56 PM
Dec 2019

The right wing can be beaten, we just need to show up in order to make that happen. Too often the right wing wins because too many people just don't care enough to vote. That's exactly what happened in the UK, and we need to be vigilant out there.

Andy823

(11,495 posts)
35. I agree with you
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 04:47 PM
Dec 2019

millions did not vote in 2016, and I think a lot of them won't make the same mistake this time. I think way to many people simply figured it was in the bag for Hillary, they were wrong. I don't think they will make that mistake again.

I also think a lot of those who voted for Obama before, but switched to trump last election won't be voting for him this time. They may not vote for a Democrat , but they won't vote for trump either.

The main thing is getting people out to vote. Too many people fall for the troll tactics here, and on other sites, like facebook. They buy into the BS that is spewed about both sides are the same, so why vote, and that has to be countered by and aggressive ad campaign by Democrats to remind them both sides are NOT the same.

Initech

(100,068 posts)
37. Oh I had relatives that either didn't vote or threw away their vote.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 05:18 PM
Dec 2019

The ones that threw away their vote are the ones who pissed me off the most. I have a relative (who shall remain nameless) who was joking about throwing away his vote because he wouldn't vote for Hillary or Trump and at least he could vote for whatever his write in vote was - which was something ridiculously stupid. When he told me that, I had that look on my face like I had seen a ghost.

And that's *EXACTLY* how these things happen. If you don't vote, or throw away your vote, the bad guys win. And Trump is a bad guy, it doesn't take an ivy league political science major to figure that one out. He's the worst of the worst. And look at his supporters - they're bad guys too. Devin Nunes is a bad guy. Steve Scalise is a bad guy. Jim Jordan is a bad guy. Mitch McConnell is a bad guy. Matt Gaetz is a bad guy. I could go on and on. There's plenty of reasons not to vote for Trump, and getting a liberal SCOTUS and getting the religious right out of our government is definitely one of them, among many other things.

Response to Me. (Original post)

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)
16. Hopefully you're right.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 02:48 PM
Dec 2019

Except...

Russian interference. Check. (Boris Johnson even tried to suppress a report about Russian interference.)
A sizeable portion of the population believing "facts" that aren't true or ignoring facts they don't like.
A sizeable portion of the population rallying around a leader who the world mocks.
Rallying around a leader who threatened to flout court orders and law (though he pulled back).
A sizeable portion of the population voting against their own financial interests and it's not clear why.
THe fomenting of division so great it has torn families apart.
Some of this has to do with disdain for immigrants and familiar populist tropes.

Did some liberals simply get exhausted by Brexit? This morning even the experts are disagreeing about what happened. I say we should listen to them and figure out for ourselves whether we need to pay attention to this or not. It's very hard to predict voter behavior right now, or entirely understand what motivates it. So I say we shouldn't completely dismiss what happened last night. We do so at our own peril. How many of thought Trump couldn't even win a first term, right up to the week he won?

EDIT: From the BBC last night. More "lower class voters" (their words) than middle class voters voted for Conservatives in this election and that's never happened before (according to BBC). They couldn't explain it.

comradebillyboy

(10,144 posts)
22. I don't think Corbyn and Labour's crushing loss was unexpected at all. Corbyn's
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:24 PM
Dec 2019

personal approval has been underwater for a long time. And Labour's Brexit stance was wishy washy at best. The exodus of Jewish MPs out of Labour didn't help either.

Initech

(100,068 posts)
32. What happened in the UK can be boiled down to one word: DISINTEREST.
Fri Dec 13, 2019, 03:53 PM
Dec 2019

The Tories won in so many counties because of a low turnout. People have been burnt out by all the shit that's been going on and they simply didn't show up at the polls to vote. I could easily see that happening here. Too often that's what happens, and if you saw elections like in Alabama last year, the Dems won that election by very *NARROW* margins. Simply put - if we show up to vote, we win. If we don't show up to vote, they win. That's really all there is to it.

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