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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOMG...The UK Elections Are Not A Predictor Of What Will Happen Here
It was unexpected so that means the Betrayer will win, it is a caution of going too far left, BS could've won that election, must stay right in the middle, the Dems are depressed, the Cons see hope. OMG...
So much hand-wringing a year away from election!
We're not the UK, we have a deeply unpopular president who hasn't grown his base beyond the cultish 30-40%, and we don't even know who his challenger will be. Calm the fuck down!
lapfog_1
(29,199 posts)Please do not, do NOT, count on Trump being unpopular as a key to getting your favorite candidate into office.
mopinko
(70,092 posts)tho corbyn was bernie's guy, the way people see him, feel about him, is more like hillary.
my first thought was that a lot of those people are accidental leaders who will be jettisoned in the next election.
labour will come up w a better candidate next time, and many will swing back. esp after the shit shower they are about to get.
Me.
(35,454 posts)where Corbyn didn't
comradebillyboy
(10,144 posts)Proud Liberal Dem
(24,412 posts)H2O Man
(73,537 posts)Labour lost because Corbyn is a terrible person, not because he is too far left. Luckily, none of our candidates is as hateful an individual as Corbyn.
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)Don't come at voters with 800 pages of policy changes because #1 : it confuses them #2 they think you're full of shit. Corbyn couldn't explain how he was going to pay for anything.
H2O Man
(73,537 posts)The Guardian. However, in this instance, I think that Corbyn's personality was the #1 reason. Thus, it follows that people didn't trust him. I base my opinion in large part upon communications with family and friends there who would have voted for Labour if anyone else was running. It had zero to do with Corbyn's being "too far left." It was entirely based upon his being a shithead.
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)complained about the length of the manifesto. Even Momentum leader Jon Lansman said this was a problem.
Manifesto
There was an incredible amount on offer in Labours 2019 manifesto Its Time for Real Change. From free care for the elderly, free university tuition fees, reducing the voting age to 16 and payouts for Waspi women, the party attempted to speak to every sector of society. Some candidates reported that they had so much to rattle through on the doorstep that when new policy ideas dropped halfway through the campaign such as slashed rail fares they shied away from discussing them so as not to overload people with commitments. A Labour source said: It wasnt that people didnt like the policies, people thought there was too many of them. The free broadband was really unpopular. We hadnt spent two years making the case for it and we just dumped it on them
so people thought this is a weird luxury, why on earth are we being offered this? Jon Lansman, leader of the Corbyn campaign group, Momentum, said: The manifesto was too detailed and too long. It was a programme for 10 years, not for government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/five-reasons-why-labour-lost-the-election
In other words, focus on a couple issues and ram them home.
H2O Man
(73,537 posts)Very valid points. I agree with that completely. Yet eben the most focused and realistic platform will fall flat if the candidate on top is known to be a petty, hateful turd.
Me.
(35,454 posts)Backs up the point the Dems made for lomiting the articles of Impeachment
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)I think keep it simple is a good strategy.
H2O Man
(73,537 posts)have preferred a slightly different approach, I support the current Articles 100%. For I recognize that I am a spectator as well as a citizen, and that I have not participated in the discussions that led to the decisions made. And I trust those who were to pick the very best approach.
Plus I remember that Malcolm X often said, "Make it plain."
Make it plain
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Ignore that at our peril. I attend lots of golf tournaments and college football games and other events where white America dominates, especially older generations. It is incredible how simplistic they are. I was in Naples attending an LPGA golf tournament a few weeks ago. This was during the impeachment hearings. It is an older white area. I was stuck in a large shuttle bus back and forth to the event for 4 days, listening to people discuss the hearings and politics in general. It was nauseating but at the same time enlightening. Every time I'm in that setting the standout aspect is that details and policy mean nothing to them. They form a quick unbreakable position, based on a handful of variables at most.
There was a Democratic debate smack in the middle of that golf tournament. I heard it discussed in the shuttle bus the following day. To my surprise and relief, they didn't automatically reject the entire field. Some among the talkers seemed willing to consider a Democrat above Trump as long as the few variables cooperated. The term being thrown around was "too far out there." It meant too liberal. Biden seemed to have greatest acceptance. "That's what he has going for him, he's not too far out there." The most vocal guy said that. Then a woman seated across immediately agreed. "Oh definitely. The rest of them are just too far out there." Then a third guy piped up, "But not Bloomberg. The only two I'd consider are Biden and Bloomberg." A handful of voices instantly agreed. That surprised me. I hadn't been thinking about Bloomberg as viable. Then the original guy summarized, "Biden is in his 70s but he can sound older than that. He gets confused. Not Bloomberg. He is 70s but still sharp." That summary gained unanimous agreement. Granted, we're talking about 8-10 people but I don't discount that type of thing. We have to rescue from white America, not continue to forfeit.
Trump won the debates against Hillary in 2016. That makes no sense point to point or how they were viewed at the time. But the exit polling indicated that voters who chose based on the debates preferred Trump. Whenever I'm in that white America setting I never have to ask why. Trump in all three debates quickly seized upon the jobs loss aspect in states like Ohio. Hillary was rambling about policies and directing people to visit her website. Our primary debates always spotlight issues. That's what our more sophisticated audience wants to hear. It does not translate well to a general election. We can't have someone rambling about the Dingell-Norwood bill while the other side has a BS artist up there emphasizing that I'll keep you safe and lower your taxes and bring back your jobs.
It is not a Rachel Maddow world. Nobody likes it when I rip her and emphasize that, but I'll continue. I am never surprised by results like the British election because I don't get suckered by Rachel Maddow types, ones who focus on day to day policy debate -- those 800 pages -- while completely whiffing the big picture. Side by side weeks from an election and BS is enormous benefit, unless our candidate is extra special and doesn't forfeit vital points via demographic and ideology alone. Female is forfeiting points, whether we like it or not. Overly liberal is forfeiting points. There was a reason I instantly spotlighted those election night 2018 exit polls with Andrew Gillum rejected by 44% (later amended to 46%) as too liberal for the state, and likewise Stacey Abrams rejected by 42% for the same reason. There is always a hint 2 years earlier toward how the electorate is thinking.
Also, we are already being outworked. As a Miamian it is evident to me every cycle. I am a lifetime registered Democrat and have never voted for a single Republican for any office. I have been contacted 3 times by a political party in the past 2 months, twice by mailing and once by phone. All 3 times it has been by Republicans. That has never happened previously. Since I am a white baby boomer male I have a feeling they are targeting people like me because I fit the profile of someone who would ordinarily support their side.
They are throwing out specifics like my registration realities, while applying simplistic generalities. I wish Democrats would get the hint and do the same. That's why I proposed the campaign slogan, "Remarkable You."
Steal a few percent instead of throwing away a few percent
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)Brexit passing in early 2016 despite the polls saying a narrow loss was similar to Trump - the polls had a narrow loss for Trump, but he "won" the election.
Johnny2X2X
(19,060 posts)It's Russia!!!! Russia made these UK results happen! And they're going to try their best to make it happen here too. And it's more than Russia, it's propaganda at a level we weren't ready to combat in 2016.
Unless we also have a high tech Social Media campaign to push our own propaganda to combat The GOP and Russia's we will not win!
People should relax. Remember when the concern trolls were afraid that Clinton could lose Wisconsin and Michigan. Boy, those trolls sure got a keyboard lashing on DU. Best to just . . . relax.
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)Boris isn't loved there. People just hated Corbyn more. If Labour would have run a better candidate , they probably would have won.
treestar
(82,383 posts)in 2016, when DU had posters claiming that the Brexit vote meant Dotard could win. I could not see how that could necessarily follow - this is a different country. So maybe it was a coincidence. I think the idea was that America and Britain are having similar tracks going on when it comes to white Deplorables. They too had a rural vote that promoted the more right-wing views on race, and it wasn't even a different race, but they felt too many other Europeans were in the UK due to the EU - it was Poles that bothered them!
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)Andy823
(11,495 posts)here on DU. It happens every election cycle, and sadly many here fall for their bullshit. It's all about divide and conquer.
If we get out the vote, we will win, and the trolls know that.
Big Blue Marble
(5,075 posts)I wish it were. We are at a precipice and many feel the extreme danger that awaits if we fall off.
There are many forces at play; most of them corrupt.
Seeing what happened in Britain, should give us pause. People are being manipulated to vote against
the best interests of their countries and themselves. And that should concern you and anyone who supports
democratic government.
We are living with the nightmare of Trump now and horrified to know how close he is to winning a second term.
Andy823
(11,495 posts)We can't give up, we must do everything we can to get rid of trump. We can't do that will "doom and gloom". If Democrats get out and vote we win.
Initech
(100,068 posts)The right wing can be beaten, we just need to show up in order to make that happen. Too often the right wing wins because too many people just don't care enough to vote. That's exactly what happened in the UK, and we need to be vigilant out there.
Andy823
(11,495 posts)millions did not vote in 2016, and I think a lot of them won't make the same mistake this time. I think way to many people simply figured it was in the bag for Hillary, they were wrong. I don't think they will make that mistake again.
I also think a lot of those who voted for Obama before, but switched to trump last election won't be voting for him this time. They may not vote for a Democrat , but they won't vote for trump either.
The main thing is getting people out to vote. Too many people fall for the troll tactics here, and on other sites, like facebook. They buy into the BS that is spewed about both sides are the same, so why vote, and that has to be countered by and aggressive ad campaign by Democrats to remind them both sides are NOT the same.
Initech
(100,068 posts)The ones that threw away their vote are the ones who pissed me off the most. I have a relative (who shall remain nameless) who was joking about throwing away his vote because he wouldn't vote for Hillary or Trump and at least he could vote for whatever his write in vote was - which was something ridiculously stupid. When he told me that, I had that look on my face like I had seen a ghost.
And that's *EXACTLY* how these things happen. If you don't vote, or throw away your vote, the bad guys win. And Trump is a bad guy, it doesn't take an ivy league political science major to figure that one out. He's the worst of the worst. And look at his supporters - they're bad guys too. Devin Nunes is a bad guy. Steve Scalise is a bad guy. Jim Jordan is a bad guy. Mitch McConnell is a bad guy. Matt Gaetz is a bad guy. I could go on and on. There's plenty of reasons not to vote for Trump, and getting a liberal SCOTUS and getting the religious right out of our government is definitely one of them, among many other things.
Response to Me. (Original post)
tenderfoot This message was self-deleted by its author.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)Except...
Russian interference. Check. (Boris Johnson even tried to suppress a report about Russian interference.)
A sizeable portion of the population believing "facts" that aren't true or ignoring facts they don't like.
A sizeable portion of the population rallying around a leader who the world mocks.
Rallying around a leader who threatened to flout court orders and law (though he pulled back).
A sizeable portion of the population voting against their own financial interests and it's not clear why.
THe fomenting of division so great it has torn families apart.
Some of this has to do with disdain for immigrants and familiar populist tropes.
Did some liberals simply get exhausted by Brexit? This morning even the experts are disagreeing about what happened. I say we should listen to them and figure out for ourselves whether we need to pay attention to this or not. It's very hard to predict voter behavior right now, or entirely understand what motivates it. So I say we shouldn't completely dismiss what happened last night. We do so at our own peril. How many of thought Trump couldn't even win a first term, right up to the week he won?
EDIT: From the BBC last night. More "lower class voters" (their words) than middle class voters voted for Conservatives in this election and that's never happened before (according to BBC). They couldn't explain it.
DavidDvorkin
(19,475 posts)comradebillyboy
(10,144 posts)personal approval has been underwater for a long time. And Labour's Brexit stance was wishy washy at best. The exodus of Jewish MPs out of Labour didn't help either.
Initech
(100,068 posts)The Tories won in so many counties because of a low turnout. People have been burnt out by all the shit that's been going on and they simply didn't show up at the polls to vote. I could easily see that happening here. Too often that's what happens, and if you saw elections like in Alabama last year, the Dems won that election by very *NARROW* margins. Simply put - if we show up to vote, we win. If we don't show up to vote, they win. That's really all there is to it.