UK election: What are the chances the exit polls are wrong?

[Tiggeroshii]

Last edited Thu Dec 12, 2019, 11:07 PM - Edit history (10)

I get it, they haven't been off by more than 5 seats since they were put in use. But the turnout was unprecedented at historic proportions. Could that effect the accuracy of the exit polls, assuming the formulas were based on previous election turnout?

Holding out hope with a hopeless outcome.

edit: A good link summarizing just how bad it all is: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50765773

[mahina]

1. Same hope here

[Tiggeroshii]

2. It feels a little bit like it did for us in 2016:

The candidate that wasnt supposed to win was winning from the very beginning. Hope that holds out the end!

[octoberlib]

3. From what I'm seeing on Twitter, it's worse.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Are the seats being called for Tory, ones that shouldn't have??

[octoberlib]

6. Yep. A journalist got a text from a Labour

politician saying they’d lost a traditional Labor stronghold by the name of Redcar. Labor supporters in the North flipped to the Brexit Party.

[Tiggeroshii]

8. Well that's not good.

[StevieM]

5. Somewhere around zero, at least if you are talking about the possibility that Corbyn won.

Even if the exit polls are off a little, they wouldn't be so far off that Labour won the election, or even came close to winning.

The election was a landslide defeat for Labour, their biggest loss in at least 40 years, probably 80. In other words, if the exit polls are wrong, and Labour did better than indicated, then that means that they have only suffered their worst defeat in the last 40 years.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. Right now I just mean hung parliament.

But yeah. You're probably right either way. :/

[marlakay]

9. Just talked to my friend in Belfast

She said the people in England are too stupid to be allowed to vote. I said sounds like a bunch in my country.

[Tiggeroshii]

11. Really, really disappointing.

[marlakay]

14. I know I met two older ladies

From hour north of London this summer. They said they felt lied to and wanted to change vote. I had hoped others would to.

[mvd]

10. Usually not wrong to that magnitude

So we likely won’t get a good result - but hope for better than expected. A shame if those in the north put Brexit as their one issue.

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Agreed

Fingers crossed!

[abqtommy]

13. What are the chances that the vote wasn't tampered with? asking for a friend

[Amishman]

15. looking to be much worse than predicted

An acquaintance in England is giving me occasional updates. Their media is stunned and calling a conservative landslide. He mentioned Darlington as a traditional Labour stronghold that appears to be flipping and thought of as previously unthinkable.

He is saying that their odd first past the post system is resulting in seats disproportionate to the Tories actual percentage of support from the overall populace. He also said that Corbyn is extremely unpopular personally and proposed too much nationalization at a time which things that are already nationalized do not work well. Also that those who have mixed feelings towards brexit (which is apparently fairly common) are skewing hard for the conservatives as they believe the government should honor the brexit vote from a few years ago.

Sounds like a combination of bad issues specific to their political situation

[mvd]

17. Wow I hope not

While Corbyn is unpopular, one poll also had Johnson at 36% satisfaction. Corbyn made some mistakes about not addressing Brexit and personal accusations better. But people in the UK still have disbelief when they see our health system. It is lack of funding from the conservatives that threatens it and likely other services. And now I worry Johnson and co. will sell it off to Trump.

[Amishman]

19. It's bad

Wrexham looks to flip, has been held by Labour since 1935.

They are losing seats they've held for generations.

Some gains though around London, but not nearly enough to offset.

First past the post seems like a really dangerous election model

[mia]

16. Does Putin pee in the UK plains?

Elections everywhere can be compromised.

[brooklynite]

18. Actual vote tallies: Conservative +2%; Labour -10%

Reality sucks, but fantasy conspiracy theories are worse...

[Tiggeroshii]

20. What conspiracy theories?

Labour's getting their asses handed to them as projected.