MI-03: Amash's Departure From the GOP Moves Seat From Solid Republican to Toss Up
Amash's situation is unique because he's virtually guaranteed to have both a Democratic and Republican opponent in 2020. The question is how big of a market there will be for a pro-life, pro-impeachment outcast in the western Michigan electorate next year.
Michigan's 3rd CD — once represented by Gerald Ford — has long been Republican seat, but in recent years it's grown more professional and competitive. In 2016, Trump took just 52 percent there, a hair under Mitt Romney's 53 percent. In 2018, Amash defeated under-funded Democratic educator Cathy Albro 54 percent to 43 percent, cobbling together a coalition of GOP base voters and a few anti-Trump independents.
Even without Amash in the mix, the GOP field is very crowded more than a year away from next August's primary. Lower, who is attempting a leap from the state House to Congress at the age of 30 (ironically, like Amash in 2010), served as an Ionia County Commissioner and was the first in against the incumbent. But he was quickly joined by state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis and Afghan/Iraq war veteran Peter Meijer.
Meijer possesses the best-known last name in the GOP race. He's the 31-year-old grandson of grocery chain magnate Frederik Meijer and an heir to a family fortune worth billions. In 2018, he helped found With Honor Action, a PAC that spent $14 million seeking to elect "principled next-generation veterans" of all parties. But the PAC's contributions to Democrats could come under attack from his primary opponents.
Democrats had trouble recruiting here in 2018 against an anti-Trump Republican. But now they're excited about the possibility Amash and a GOP nominee will divide their opposition, creating a path for victory in a seat trending their way. It's early, but Democrats have two credible contenders: Grand Rapids immigration attorney Hillary Scholten and former Obama White House personal aide Nick Colvin.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/michigan-house/amashs-departure-gop-moves-mi-03-solid-republican-toss
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