McCain expected Hot Sarah would give him a much bigger-than-average bump. What he didn't understand is that snarky simpleton only inspired the base that would have voted for him anyway. And she scared the hell out of everyone else.
Romney made the same mistake. He was reading all those fawning Beltway press clippings about how handsome the boy genius is and what an excellent workout he does every day. Did we mention he is handsome, too? And good looking? Romney probably figured that was good for at least 5 points with the women-folk.
Now his people know that Ryan didn't add anything to the poll numbers and instead has thrown the Romney campaign completely off track. When they aren't talking about how rape victims shouldn't be allowed to make decisions about their own treatment, they are talking about how they aren't really killing medicare and Social Security, honest ...
Romney is probably holding out hope that he will get the usual 5-point convention bounce, but I bet that doesn't happen. All but about 7% are already committed, and I doubt they will win over very many with the kooks the GOP puts on the stage next week.
And remember, Obama hasn't really started the real campaign yet. By mid-September, we will be seeing 20,000-50,000 person events for Obama and the Romney events will be 1000-2500. That is very powerful imagery. Americans like to go with the winner. The Koch Brothers can't buy enough actors to fill up one big event, and we will be seeing the Obama campaign doing this in city after city.
The Obama guys understand these things, and they understand timing. Don't use you ammo too early.
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