Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
Tue Aug 21, 2012, 11:45 PM Aug 2012

Did the Democrats miscalculate in MO?

From my understanding, this Akin character was actually running 3rd in the primaries. The McCaskill campaign poured money into the Akin campaign thinking that Akin was too bat-shit crazy to be actually be elected in the General. What if that was a miscalculation and Akin actually makes it to the Senate? The results will be that a) Democrats will most likely lose the Senate majority meaning the Republicans have both houses and b) we are stuck with this batshit crazy misogynist for at least 6 years and possibly longer.

Another point: I'm told McCaskill is highly unpopular, even among Democrats in MO. So why wouldn't the Democratic Party spend time and money bringing in a candidate who was more electable?

I'm sorry but I think this was a HUGE gamble on the part of the Democrats and, if they lose the gamble, the consequences could be dire to say the least.

87 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Did the Democrats miscalculate in MO? (Original Post) Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 OP
Anyone that would win the Republican vote in MO would vote the same way in the Senate.. Fumesucker Aug 2012 #1
I live in Missouri. xmas74 Aug 2012 #2
If Akin is an example, Downwinder Aug 2012 #5
LDS was chased out of Missouri. xmas74 Aug 2012 #8
the Dem party has no infrastructure in a lot of places outside of KC, Stl, and Columbia pstokely Aug 2012 #15
Exactly. xmas74 Aug 2012 #20
If they did, they wouldn't be DINO's. RC Aug 2012 #30
Which DINO voted with Republicans more than the Democrats? mythology Aug 2012 #81
It is not how many times DINO's (Blue Dogs) voted for or against or the percentage. RC Aug 2012 #87
False proud2BlibKansan Aug 2012 #44
World headquarters of the RLDS REP Aug 2012 #12
What's funny is the RLDS is the liberal branch of the Mormon church Taverner Aug 2012 #41
Carnahan was the first female MO Senator. Gore1FL Aug 2012 #11
Yes, Jean was the first xmas74 Aug 2012 #19
And if she weren't a DINO, she'd never get elected in MO justiceischeap Aug 2012 #22
But who will they vote for now? pstokely Aug 2012 #26
Well, unfortunately (or fortunately), my parents don't vote anymore justiceischeap Aug 2012 #55
South west of KC would be in Kansas proud2BlibKansan Aug 2012 #45
Yep, got my left and right mixed up! nt justiceischeap Aug 2012 #53
Claire's problem is (or was) with independents pstokely Aug 2012 #14
We both know the polls under sample the urban areas. xmas74 Aug 2012 #23
The MO Farm Bureau PAC endorsements are all Repuke pstokely Aug 2012 #24
So, am I correct in assuming MO Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #32
The urban areas tend to be more blue. There is also a blue area in the middle. proud2BlibKansan Aug 2012 #47
Given that there are so many blue areas Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #49
Because the rest of the state is VERY republican proud2BlibKansan Aug 2012 #50
We haven't been in anyone's plans for a few years. xmas74 Aug 2012 #62
VERY interesting! Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #72
Technically, McCaskill's the first *elected* female US Senator from Missouri Art_from_Ark Aug 2012 #64
I tend to call her the first female since she was actually elected. xmas74 Aug 2012 #67
A little different subject, but Art_from_Ark Aug 2012 #68
I've heard of him. xmas74 Aug 2012 #69
Litton's death was a big loss Art_from_Ark Aug 2012 #74
Supposedly Jimmy Carter really thought that he would eventually be president. xmas74 Aug 2012 #82
I worked his campaign. that day ranks as one of the worst days of my life. lastlib Aug 2012 #84
I'm getting all choked up just reading your account of that tragic day Art_from_Ark Aug 2012 #86
I remember another great female senate nominee from Missouri circa 1980's-Lt Gov Harriet Woods.... Rowdyboy Aug 2012 #78
1986 was my first year living in Missouri. xmas74 Aug 2012 #79
No the republicans did - they tried to bluff Akin out of the race and he didn't fold tularetom Aug 2012 #3
I wouldn't call it in the bag for them even before the comments pstokely Aug 2012 #16
Rove pulled all of his money out of Akin's race. proud2BlibKansan Aug 2012 #48
And some will vote for him xmas74 Aug 2012 #63
McCaskill miscalculated B Calm Aug 2012 #4
The fauxbots will still vote for Akin pstokely Aug 2012 #17
No. I don't believe they miscalculated. pa28 Aug 2012 #6
The Right to Pray amendment also bought also a large fundie vote in the Repuke primary pstokely Aug 2012 #18
If it is a Republican, it is Batshit. Warren DeMontague Aug 2012 #7
McCaskill did not "pour money into the Akin campaign" frazzled Aug 2012 #9
I consider a Democratic candidate for the Senate Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #33
They were ads against , not for, the opposition campaign(s) frazzled Aug 2012 #36
The ads were meant to split the vote Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #39
One of the others was supported by Palin and is a 'Tea Party Upstart', so 'bat-shit' looks right muriel_volestrangler Aug 2012 #59
Moved post (wrong response) /nt frazzled Aug 2012 #65
Akin is probably less likely to win than the two people he beat hfojvt Aug 2012 #10
Soooooooo you had a real Moran running for office in Kansas. LOL Kalidurga Aug 2012 #52
McCaskill isn't real popular on this site pstokely Aug 2012 #13
She's hated here. xmas74 Aug 2012 #21
But who's more hated now? They're probably both hated now pstokely Aug 2012 #25
He's quickly winning that race out here xmas74 Aug 2012 #60
No and no. bluestateguy Aug 2012 #27
Do they? Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #40
claire out fundraised Akin Dkc05 Aug 2012 #28
Democrats: Very quick to find the storm cloud in every silver lining. jeff47 Aug 2012 #29
Well I don't know about Democrats in terms of storm clouds. Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #35
This is ProSense Aug 2012 #31
So, the CSM is lying? Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #37
Where on earth ProSense Aug 2012 #46
I've already answered this but: Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #51
She isn't the only one quaker bill Aug 2012 #57
If she Loses to Akin, she would have Lost to Anyone else JI7 Aug 2012 #34
Hence my question about putting up Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #38
I doubt she's unpopular in the MO Dem party pstokely Aug 2012 #42
Grayson did it and it will help him get back in office JI7 Aug 2012 #43
We are grateful for her! loyalsister Aug 2012 #85
You're complaining that she poured money into defeating Akin? randome Aug 2012 #54
McCaskill did the only thing she could to win the election, MadHound Aug 2012 #56
But how long will people remember pstokely Aug 2012 #61
Oh, don't worry, people in this state will remember right up until election day, MadHound Aug 2012 #70
McCaskill needs to run that comment in October with the ad time she has already bought pstokely Aug 2012 #75
Probably will, MadHound Aug 2012 #76
This has forced the GOP war on women front and center magical thyme Aug 2012 #58
From what I can see, Le Taz Hot Aug 2012 #73
Considering McCaskill is now winning by 10 points ... frazzled Aug 2012 #66
This message was self-deleted by its author Chorophyll Aug 2012 #71
The McCaskill campaign poured money into the Akin campaign thinking that Akin was too bat-shit.... arely staircase Aug 2012 #77
Last night on Letterman's show, Rachel Maddow said McCaskill figured it was a pretty good bet that Lex Aug 2012 #80
She already had on record the comments about him wanting to end Medicare xmas74 Aug 2012 #83

Fumesucker

(45,851 posts)
1. Anyone that would win the Republican vote in MO would vote the same way in the Senate..
Tue Aug 21, 2012, 11:49 PM
Aug 2012

I don't think it makes any difference..

And McCaskill spent most of her time in office trying to piss off the Democratic base in order to appease conservatives..

We see how well that worked out.

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
2. I live in Missouri.
Tue Aug 21, 2012, 11:54 PM
Aug 2012

Right now Akin is public enemy number one. Few actually like him. The strongest fight would have been with Sarah Steelman, who received support from Palin. No Dems wanted to fight her.

The reason why Claire isn't liked is because of her well-known and public support of Obama early on. That, and she's the first female senator from Missouri-ever. You know some of the menfolk don't like them uppity wimmens.

Going for Akin wasn't a miscalculation. It was, and still is, our best shot to maintain that seat. Honestly, Claire wouldn't even be in the Senate if she had won the election she really wanted:governor of Missouri. She ran against, and lost to, Matt Blunt. (Aka the boy blunder, son of Roy. He was only a one-term governor.) I think if she had won that election the senate never would have crossed her mind.

I don't know of any Democrats here in Missouri that don't really like her. Most do like her-she's smart and she's personable, for the most part. What they don't like is how big of a target she has always been and always will be for the GOP. (Read above about the "uppity wimmens".) When she makes a mistake it's quickly a capital case and I really believe it goes back to her being a woman.

Downwinder

(12,869 posts)
5. If Akin is an example,
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 12:12 AM
Aug 2012

we know what Mo. Republicans think of women. Mormons leave because they were too progressive?

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
8. LDS was chased out of Missouri.
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 12:25 AM
Aug 2012

And most of the Republicans in Missouri are encouraged by non-Missourians. You have a few very red areas, some blue areas, and then a few areas that go back and forth. Missouri also has a few military bases which often tend to vote conservative. Springfield is the home of the Assemblies of God, which is also conservative.

Missouri liberals, otoh, can be very liberal. We just don't scream everyone down. In all actuality, the state is filled with independent voters, whom the Repub party controls by threats. (The threats are usually about taxes. Or losing jobs-that's another big threat. If Dems win supposedly MO will no longer be able to compete with jobs.)

Oh, and most of the actual Republicans I know here (that is, those who are long time Republican and not those who are RR voting for one or two things only) are disgusted by Akin. They were demanding that he step down Sunday evening, saying that no one who thinks that way should be representing the people of our state. It's the religious groups who are encouraging Akin to keep acting like an ass. (And many Dems-we're encouraging it too, to hopefully guarantee a win.)

pstokely

(10,559 posts)
15. the Dem party has no infrastructure in a lot of places outside of KC, Stl, and Columbia
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 03:23 AM
Aug 2012

A lot of DINOS in the state also. Much like the Dem party has no infrastructure in the entire state of KS

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
20. Exactly.
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 07:41 AM
Aug 2012

There is little to no infrastructure outside of the two main cities and our biggest college town. There are many DINOs for that reason.

I know it's our job to hate the DINOs here on DU but I'll take a DINO any day of the week over the other batshit crazies out there. Even DINOs tend to vote the party line the majority of the time.

 

RC

(25,592 posts)
30. If they did, they wouldn't be DINO's.
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 11:34 PM
Aug 2012
Even DINOs tend to vote the party line the majority of the time.


 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
81. Which DINO voted with Republicans more than the Democrats?
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:37 PM
Aug 2012

I've looked it up and there wasn't one. There were only a couple that voted less than 60% of the time with the Democrats.

 

RC

(25,592 posts)
87. It is not how many times DINO's (Blue Dogs) voted for or against or the percentage.
Fri Aug 24, 2012, 11:42 AM
Aug 2012

It is the bills themselves that matter, that they voted against the party on. For example, Dems voting against Democrat originated unemployment extensions, against jobs bills, voting for no abortion, no exceptions. Voting to further cripple Medicare, voting to extend bu$h's tax cuts. They can have a 80% approval rating and still be a DINO by consistently voting the wrong way on the big bills that really count, while voting with the majority on piddly stuff that doesn't really matter in the long haul. "National Recycle your newspaper week", good for 2012 only anyone? That counts too. It is not the numbers split so much that matter, as the bills themselves they voted with the Republicans on.
There are 20 to 30 hard core DINO's in Congress, that we would do well to replace.


Why can't the Democratic Party be realistic about what to expect from "Democrats" sent to Congress by conservative Republican voters? Instead of trying to make this exceptional, unnatural and unsustainable situation last as long as possible, by playing this charade of "make believe I'm a conservative Republican just like you, and keep sending me back to Washington", why not take advantages of the opportunities that such elections give the party to have congresspersons from such areas who are true Democrats for at least one term (2 or 6 years) - which is better than having a pseudo-Democrat from those areas who votes Republican for two or three terms? Why not get a promise from such short term Democratic office holders that, in exchange for the party's help in getting elected, they will serve as Democrats. In most instances, it will only be for one term. But if they show their constituents how much better the Democratic way is than the Republican, they may actually persuade many of them to move in our direction, (rather than having our Democratic office holders move in their direction)!


"How can the Democratic leadership expect people like me to support our party as enthusiastically and generously as we would like when we see our efforts and contributions being squandered to elect so-called "blue dog" and "pro-life" Democrats, who use their office to help the Republicans, the fat cat business interests, and/or the conservative Catholic and Protestant clergy to defeat the official agenda of the Democratic Party?"
http://liberalslikechrist.org/about/Dinos.html




Progressives rejoice (or despair…) Ben Nelson to retire from Congress, **UPDATE: Nelson’s mixed voting record
December 27, 2011 · Posted in 112th Congress, 2012, Democrats, People, Politics

You won't have Ben Nelson to kick around anymore...

When Ben Nelson announces his plans to retire from the United States Senate (as he’s expected to do today)… progressive Democrats will start popping the champagne corks at seeing one of the bains of their existence finally go away. They shouldn’t.

Nelson’s Senate tenure is a classic study in big tent politics — the kind that at this point, pretty much only the Democrats play (Republicans have exactly three moderates in their caucus: the two Senators from Maine and the soon-to-be former, short-lived Republican Senator from Massachusetts, Scott Brown, though all three vote with Mitch McConnell on pretty much every “leadership” (read filibuster) vote.)

For Democrats, being a majority in the Senate, and formerly the House, meant tolerating the presence of some pretty unpleasant characters if you’re of the liberal persuasion: Nelson, Blanche Lincoln (the former Senator from Arkansas), Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Max Baucus of Montana, ex-Senator Evan Bayh (who left his party high and dry by vacating his seat mid-term…) the newest member of the club, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and of course, Joe Lieberman.
http://blog.reidreport.com/2011/12/progressives-rejoice-or-despair-ben-nelson-to-retire-from-congress/



To look at the Blue Dogs’ voting records as scored by the various interest groups, they don’t always stand out as particularly conservative. Herseth Sandlin, for example, earned a 90 percent score from Americans for Democratic Action in 2007. Hill received a 91 from the American Civil Liberties Union in 2008. Many of the group’s members are actually fairly liberal on a range of matters. It’s when the big issues take center stage, especially ones that pit government spending against deficit reduction, that the Blue Dogs bark.

>SNIP<

That these blue politicians represent red districts is a fact to which the party leadership is usually sensitive. Reacting to the stimulus vote, a spokesman for Speaker Nancy Pelosi said: “Many of the districts are more conservative, and they campaigned on fiscal responsibility, and we understand that.”3 Indeed the degree of understanding may have gone even further. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, considered one of the coalition’s more serious legislators, said in a radio interview in early February that he was given leave by the White House to vote against his party’s House leadership. “Well, I probably shouldn’t tell you this, but I actually got some quiet encouragement from the Obama folks for what I’m doing,” said Cooper.4
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2009/dec/03/who-are-the-blue-dogs/?pagination=false

proud2BlibKansan

(96,793 posts)
44. False
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:38 AM
Aug 2012

There is a very active Democratic party in both Johnson and Wyandotte county and in Topeka. The county in Kansas with the healthiest economy and the best job growth - Wyandotte - is also the most Democratic county in the state with the highest percentage of Democratic elected officials. Howard Dean chose to attend Johnson County's DFA training academy because he recognized the strength of the local Democratic party.

Yes, there is an infrastructure for the Democratic party in Kansas. Not enough infrastructure, but it is there.

 

Taverner

(55,476 posts)
41. What's funny is the RLDS is the liberal branch of the Mormon church
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:22 AM
Aug 2012

Although not a "Branch" as they view each other as apostates

Gore1FL

(21,255 posts)
11. Carnahan was the first female MO Senator.
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 01:26 AM
Aug 2012

McCaskill was the first one elected.

I don't like her, myself. If we were in New England she'd be a Republican. I don't dislike her for her early support of Obama. I dislike her because she takes wrong stances on issues.

Your take and my take are vastly different.

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
19. Yes, Jean was the first
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 07:38 AM
Aug 2012

but Claire was actually elected. Jean became the first because of Mel's tragic death. I remember it quite well.

We may take it differently but I'm telling you how I see it in a more conservative part of the state.

justiceischeap

(14,040 posts)
22. And if she weren't a DINO, she'd never get elected in MO
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 07:50 AM
Aug 2012

Last edited Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:10 AM - Edit history (1)

Something that's always struck me about politics and people on DU is the lack of foresight to realize that not every state who elects a Dem, is going to elect a progressive/liberal Dem. Sometimes DINO's are our only choice in these purple areas.

My parents live 2 1/2 hours south east of KCMO and let me tell you, the people in their town did not vote for McCaskill and to most of them she looks like a flaming liberal even though we call her a DINO.

justiceischeap

(14,040 posts)
55. Well, unfortunately (or fortunately), my parents don't vote anymore
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:15 AM
Aug 2012

but if they were to vote, I'd guess they'd vote against anyone who supports Obama--even though it goes against their best interest (they barely "live" on SS and MC). I was there a couple months back for my sister's funeral and they played attack ad, after attack ad for McCaskill and the big message in those ads was how she supported "Obamacare."

pstokely

(10,559 posts)
14. Claire's problem is (or was) with independents
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 03:21 AM
Aug 2012

She needed someone who was openly batshit crazy, Repukes will still vote for Akin no matter what but he's now damaged goods. Also a lot of the polls under sample the urban areas.

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
23. We both know the polls under sample the urban areas.
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 07:51 AM
Aug 2012

I personally think she's probably leading the race. I live in a more rural area and have been push-polled in the past. As soon as they realize that they won't get the response they want out of me they always end the poll.

I wonder how the Farm Bureau vote went at the State Fair? I've tried to find the results with no success. I remembered to stop in and vote at the fair.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
32. So, am I correct in assuming MO
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 11:55 PM
Aug 2012

isn't on the Dem's 6-state strategy list? Are there any blue areas in the state and, of so, are they more in line with moderates than liberals? Pardon this Californian's ignorance on your state and it's politics but I'm just trying to understand why this race is even close after Akin's statements.

Thanks for your patience.

LTH

proud2BlibKansan

(96,793 posts)
47. The urban areas tend to be more blue. There is also a blue area in the middle.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:48 AM
Aug 2012

Some say MO is KC and St Louis with Alabama in between. I don't really agree with that but they are still fighting the Civil War in MO so I understand the logic.

Like xmas said, there are some very conservative pockets but the 2 largest cities are pretty strong Democratic areas. I'm not sure about St. Louis, but all of the council members and state reps in KC are Democrats. And the US congressman Emanuel Cleaver is the head of the CBC.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
49. Given that there are so many blue areas
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 01:00 AM
Aug 2012

then, I'm not sure I understand how Akin can be this close. I suppose it's all relative in that w/o Akin's "gift" she wouldn't have even been close.

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
62. We haven't been in anyone's plans for a few years.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 08:04 AM
Aug 2012

They tend to ignore us for the most part or just give us a rudimentary pat on the back.

We do have blue places and those blue places, if all voted, would actually outweigh all the red and make this state blue. Kansas City, St Louis, and Columbia are all blue and proudly so. (Columbia is home to Columbia College, Stephen's College, and the University of Missouri.)

There has been arguing back and forth about the polls but from what I understand the polls were mostly done in rural areas and only included landlines. Our urban areas, like urban areas all over the US, are more cell usage compared to landlines. And our rural areas tend to trend red-the further south, the redder. Cape Girardeau and Springfield tend to trend very red and both are in the southern part of the state. Springfield is the home of the Assemblies of God and the Cape is the place that gave the world Rush Limbaugh. (I think that explains so much about the politics in the area.) Further north you have Kirksville, which trends a bit more like Iowa. St Joe can trend more towards Iowa but does sometimes pick up the flavor of KC. Maryville trends between Iowa and Kansas but a bit more towards Kansas.

Missouri has often been a bellwether in the past, partially because of it's location. We are bordered by 8 states-more than any other in the US. The divisions within the state, politically and by attitude and way of living, can be felt. My town is in West Central Missouri, about an hour SE from KC. It's still surrounded by a rural area, though it has nearly doubled in size over the last 10 years. We have people moving from KC to here for the cheaper property values and taxes, making the commute to KC every day. Their politics can be a toss-up as either liberal or conservative. We are a college town whose population is rapidly growing. The university is setting records in enrollment every single year and there is always lots of construction on campus. With the push even from the university to register voters and get them to the polls this tends to push the town more blue. OTOH, we have a military base within 8 miles of town. Whenever you hear about a bombing raid somewhere this base is quite often involved. That trends this town right back to red.

My town is just one example of how unpredictable Missouri politics can be. People can be disgusted by someone yet still hold their noses and vote for them if they think that's the best they can get. I don't know-I'm pretty sure McCaskill wins this and I think that, from what I'm hearing from the military in my area Obama might just have their vote too. (The Romney clans generations of lack of service seems to make a few upset and I've heard comments about Ryan being an "Eddie Haskell".) This is a state that can sometimes defy logic. One of the fiercest Dem presidents ever, Harry Truman, hails from nearby and was a proud Missouri son, yet many feel abandoned by the Dem party. The Repubs spend lots of time here and lots of money and they tend to get more attention for that reason alone.

If you ever make it to the KC area there are plenty of DUers that would love to show you around. I'd be glad to take you a bit further out into my area where there are so many contradictions. (And you can watch a B-2 Stealth land! It's really cool.) Once you visit you realize exactly why it's so hard to predict us.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
72. VERY interesting!
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:37 PM
Aug 2012

I just learned a whole lot about MO.

The one thing that struck me was your comment about how the Republicans do more outreach in the rural areas than the Democrats do. That is EXACTLY the same way it is in California. Then the Democrats bitch and moan and complain about the red part of the state and how we're all a bunch of hicks and ignorant farmers. Then they wonder why they can't win over the red areas.

Thanks for the detail in your answer.

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
64. Technically, McCaskill's the first *elected* female US Senator from Missouri
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:30 AM
Aug 2012

However, Jean Carnahan holds the distinction as being Missouri's first female US Senator (serving in her husband's place in 2001-2002 after the latter was posthumously elected).

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
67. I tend to call her the first female since she was actually elected.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:11 PM
Aug 2012

(Working with Republicans over the years I've often heard them say that Jean doesn't really count since she didn't actually run but was instead appointed to fill Mel's seat. That's ok-I have Claire to throw in their face, though I was also hoping for Robin. Maybe someday.)

I remember the Carnahan quite well-I volunteered on it, canvassing with a baby on my hip. I also remember when it all happened-I had the day off and had volunteered to work at HQ that morning. I hadn't heard yet and just got dressed and drove in with my (at the time) baby. About 15 minutes later a woman who also volunteered came along. She said that, in the confusion, they had forgotten to call me at home until after I'd left and that we were closing up that day. When she told me why I was shocked.

Funny thing was that even though we hadn't opened yet there was a line waiting outside the door to get in. That hadn't happened before. We made a sign up letting everyone know why we were closed and, as we were leaving, people were still pulling up. Everyone in that line wanted to buy Carnahan bumper stickers and yard signs to show their support. Even known Republicans in the area wanted to show their support for his family and for Jean. (Of course, none of them actually expected him to win and even fewer expected Jean to take his seat.)

Remember, the best way to possibly insult Ashcroft is to remind people on a regular basis that a dead man beat him in the race.

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
68. A little different subject, but
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 08:07 PM
Aug 2012

Last edited Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:34 PM - Edit history (1)

Do you remember Jerry Litton? He was a rising star in the Missouri Democratic Party back in the 1970s, and, like Mel Carnahan, met an untimely fate in an airplane accident in an election year (36 years ago this month).

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
69. I've heard of him.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:32 PM
Aug 2012

I had a teacher in high school who was pretty interested in him and did teach us a bit about him. I'm too young to actually remember him and the crash happened before I moved to Missouri, but our teacher used to tell us that everyone thought he'd be the next Truman. (Meaning they all thought he'd eventually run for and win the presidency. He was that well liked.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Litton (for anyone else possibly following our conversation)

One of the two noms to replace Litton lived in my old town for a time, serving pastorates before he entered politics. I worked at a place that had a building named for him.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Spainhower



Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
74. Litton's death was a big loss
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:47 PM
Aug 2012

Not only from a political perspecetive, but also from a personal one (his wife and kids were also killed). Although I did not live in Missouri, I did receive several TV stations from Missouri at the time (KODE and KUHI (now KTVJ) in Joplin, KOLR in Springfield), and the consensus was that it was a huge loss for the state. And yeah, they were talking like Litton could have been the next Truman.

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
82. Supposedly Jimmy Carter really thought that he would eventually be president.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:39 PM
Aug 2012

He was considered by some to be the next big hope of the party. I remember learning that some wanted him ready to run by 1984. The thought was that Carter would win in '76 and '80 and that Litton was a possibility to follow him. Most thought that he would be '90's ready.

How different things might have been if he hadn't died! Missouri was still a bellwether state during this time. I wonder if they would have voted for him?

lastlib

(23,659 posts)
84. I worked his campaign. that day ranks as one of the worst days of my life.
Fri Aug 24, 2012, 12:16 AM
Aug 2012

It was primary election day. Litton was running against three other candidates for US Senate nomination. In what was thought to be a very close race, Litton pulled out to a stunning lead in the returns, a lead that ultimately held up. He and his family took off from his home town, headed for what should have been a victory party in Kansas City. Around nine o'clock, one of his top campaign aides came out and announced that there had been a plane crash in his town, and that they thought he was on that plane. The feeling was sickening, like a massive punch in the gut, and it just got worse as more information came in. It was truly horrifying.

Rowdyboy

(22,057 posts)
78. I remember another great female senate nominee from Missouri circa 1980's-Lt Gov Harriet Woods....
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:10 PM
Aug 2012

"Give 'em Hell Harriet" was a real hero of mine when I was much younger for her strong support of pro-choice in a pretty conservative state. She very narrowly lost senate races in 1982 (2%) and 1986 (5%). Missouri seems to be pretty tough territory for Democratic women...

I think Emily's List was started because of Lt Gov Woods

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
79. 1986 was my first year living in Missouri.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:32 PM
Aug 2012

I remember Harriett Woods. She was an impressive woman who I wish could have climbed further.

tularetom

(23,664 posts)
3. No the republicans did - they tried to bluff Akin out of the race and he didn't fold
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 12:00 AM
Aug 2012

Now he has them by the balls. They will have to support him or risk losing a seat that was almost in the bag for them. But Romney, Rove, and Rinse Penis all bad mouthed him and now they will have to back down and support him. It makes Romney look incredibly weak and it does slightly improve the Democrats chances of hanging onto this seat.

proud2BlibKansan

(96,793 posts)
48. Rove pulled all of his money out of Akin's race.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:51 AM
Aug 2012

I also doubt the RNC will put any money in that race. And Akin has been uninvited from the convention.

McCaskill's chances of winning have risen considerably, but it's not a given by any measure. A lot of republicans will vote for Akin because they despise Claire.

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
63. And some will vote for him
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 08:09 AM
Aug 2012

as a means of giving the Repub party the finger. Missouri mules were prized for many, many years and our voters sometimes remind everyone of that fact. They can be stubborn as hell and do something for no other reason than just because.

In my town the Repub HQ took his sign out of the front window. I'd go inside and look around but unless they have new workers the locals know I'm not a Repub. (We're still small enough to know who is active with what party-Repub, Dem, Libertarian and Constitution.) I'm just not in the mood for an argument.

 

B Calm

(28,762 posts)
4. McCaskill miscalculated
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 12:07 AM
Aug 2012

by being a DINO. A lot of damn good it's doing for her, they still think she's a liberal. Hell if they are going to make you out to be a liberal, you might as well give them what they say you are!

pa28

(6,145 posts)
6. No. I don't believe they miscalculated.
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 12:13 AM
Aug 2012

Even supposedly moderate Republicans like Snowe will fall into line on partisan votes.

A Republican seat is a Republican vote and the batshit craziness of Akin does result in any material change if the Republicans happen to take over the Senate.

McCaskill's 1.5m "investment" paid for itself with just one mistake and I'm guessing there will be more to come. Democrats are playing offense for once and we're starting to feel a really unusual sensation. We're kicking their asses and watching them run down the street and we're just not used to seeing that.

No reason to worry.

pstokely

(10,559 posts)
18. The Right to Pray amendment also bought also a large fundie vote in the Repuke primary
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 03:27 AM
Aug 2012

Akin performed well in the most Red areas of the state (outer Stl suburbs and Southwest MO)

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
9. McCaskill did not "pour money into the Akin campaign"
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 12:32 AM
Aug 2012

That's just plain misleading and, quite frankly, wrong. She ran ads against all 3 of her primary opponents, and painted Akin as someone who was even too conservative for Missouri ... which is a damned conservative place. Which is why McCaskill has been so moderate. You think someone more liberal can win Missouri? That's nuts. They were running ads against her from day one, and she ran ads against them. She didn't "pour money into Akin's campaign" in any sense of the word. Stop parroting Joe Scarborough.

To see a good recap of the wrongheadedness of saying McCaskill "helped" Akin, see this diary, with videos of her ads plus tons more:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/20/1122203/-Rumor-Has-It-That-Claire-McCaskill-Told-the-Truth

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
33. I consider a Democratic candidate for the Senate
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:05 AM
Aug 2012

spending $2 million on ads for the opposition's campaign "pouring money" but perhaps you're working with different fiscal scale.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2012/0821/Why-Claire-McCaskill-wants-Todd-Akin-to-stay-in-Missouri-race

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
36. They were ads against , not for, the opposition campaign(s)
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:09 AM
Aug 2012

And that was for all the Republican wanna-be's. Git yer facts straight.

Look at the ads themselves, as posted above, and I think you'll agree these were not ads "for" the opposition.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
39. The ads were meant to split the vote
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:18 AM
Aug 2012

three ways and she gambled that Akin would win out. As it turned out she was right but I wonder how this is going to turn out in the general. I'd REALLY hate to see this guy not only sitting in the United States Senate but being the 51st R in the Senate.

Now, if the other two Republican candidates are as bat-shit as Akin, I can see the problem but that's hard to believe even for Missouri.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,620 posts)
59. One of the others was supported by Palin and is a 'Tea Party Upstart', so 'bat-shit' looks right
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:31 AM
Aug 2012
Sarah Palin is mounting an aggressive campaign in Missouri -- in television and radio ads, in automated telephone calls, even serving barbecued pork sandwiches at a rural political picnic. She's urging residents to vote for Sarah -- Sarah Steelman, one of three Republicans in a prickly U.S. Senate primary.
...
Steelman, 54, is a former state senator and treasurer who lost a Republican primary for governor four years ago. Her father is a former Missouri Republican Party chairman and her husband a former attorney general candidate. She's hardly a political outsider as she seeks to challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. Yet she's running on a slogan of "the status quo has got to go," she has the endorsement of the Tea Party Express and she's airing a TV ad in which Palin describes her as an economist "who defends our tax dollars like a momma grizzly defends her cubs."
...
Brunner doesn't describe himself as a tea party candidate. But he says: "I think there is a groundswell going across the country," citing victories by Cruz and tea party favorite Richard Mourdock, who defeated Sen. Richard Lugar for the GOP nomination in Indiana. He adds: "I believe folks are looking a little more intensely in terms of what are the featured attributes and elements we need in Washington, D.C., to get the job done."

Brunner, Steelman and the Club for Growth all have criticized the third prominent Republican in the race -- Rep. Todd Akin --for using earmarks, which is a big turnoff to many in the tea party movement. Yet Akin, 65, has the backing of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, a tea party star, as well as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. His opposition to the 2008 bank bailout and his desire to abolish the federal Department of Education all appeal to the strident right.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/06/missouri-primary-is-latest-test-tea-party-influence-with-wisconsin-arizona-on/


Brunner is far from untouchable though; Steelman and Brunner have weakened each other considerably with attack ads, benefiting the largely ignored Akin. Pundits point to Akin’s popular platform and strong support from the religious base as giving him the potential to overtake Brunner, especially in a primary election that boasts a significant wild card in the controversial Amendment 2.
...
Regardless of the outcome of the senatorial primary, many see this as a likely Republican pickup in the general election. In particular, McCaskill’s support of the stimulus and landmark health care bill have made her a target for Republican donors with deep pockets. All in all, over 2.2 million dollars have been spent by groups outside of Missouri on advertisements leading up to the senatorial primary.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/12428/missouri-primary-results-tea-party-upstart-sarah-steelman-looks-to-upset-the-establishment


So even Brunner was running on a pretty right wing, tea party-friendly platform.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
10. Akin is probably less likely to win than the two people he beat
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 12:41 AM
Aug 2012

Although we sorta had a similar situation in Kansas. Some people wanted Tiahrt to win the primary because he was more beatable than Moran. But we would not have beaten Tiahrt with any of our candidates, and I'd rather lose to Moran than Tiahrt. Although at this point, it is hard to see any evidence of Moran being less conservative than Tiahrt.

But to suggest that McCaskill be primaried is just absurd. As much as I dislike her, I would not tilt at that windmill. First of all, she'd be almost impossible to beat in a primary. Then even if she was beat, against all odds, that person would be heading into the fall election with depleted resources.

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
52. Soooooooo you had a real Moran running for office in Kansas. LOL
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 03:08 AM
Aug 2012

But, then again most Republicans are morans whether they spell their names that way or not.

pstokely

(10,559 posts)
13. McCaskill isn't real popular on this site
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 03:17 AM
Aug 2012

But Akin might become even more hated than McCaskill, at least that's what she's hoping

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
21. She's hated here.
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 07:44 AM
Aug 2012

The posters on DU really don't understand what it's like in Missouri. If she were even a slight bit more liberal she'd lose election.

DINOs may not be my favorite but I'll still vote for one every single time if the other option is a conservative. And in Missouri, the other option is always a conservative.

pstokely

(10,559 posts)
25. But who's more hated now? They're probably both hated now
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 11:08 PM
Aug 2012

If they hate both, the person less hated will win. Before the comments, a rock running as a Repuke might he been able to beet McCaskill

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
60. He's quickly winning that race out here
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:38 AM
Aug 2012

and I'm in a more rural area. They tend to be very conservative out here. Just last week there were yard signs for Akin out in town. A drive through town on Tuesday showed not even one sign and the sign was taken out of the front window at Repub HQ.

 

Dkc05

(375 posts)
28. claire out fundraised Akin
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 11:12 PM
Aug 2012

Claire raised and spent 12,500,000 while Akin raised 2,500,000 and has spent it all thru July 31. So Claire will win.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
29. Democrats: Very quick to find the storm cloud in every silver lining.
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 11:14 PM
Aug 2012

Next can we start panicking about Obama in Vermont? He's only up by 37%, so clearly somethings going wrong and we need to immediately change course.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
35. Well I don't know about Democrats in terms of storm clouds.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:08 AM
Aug 2012

I just had a few questions about MO politics.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
31. This is
Wed Aug 22, 2012, 11:38 PM
Aug 2012

illegal: "The McCaskill campaign poured money into the Akin campaign"

Not the kind of accusation to just throw out there on speculation.

Report: GOP’s Rivera Ran Democratic Primary Shadow Campaign
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/report_gops_david_rivera_ran_shadow_campai.php

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
46. Where on earth
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:44 AM
Aug 2012

does it say: "The McCaskill campaign poured money into the Akin campaign"?

She spent money on ads against her potential opponents, that is not remotely the same as the above.



Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
51. I've already answered this but:
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 01:12 AM
Aug 2012

"In fact, McCaskill invested in helping Akin win the GOP primary earlier this month, spending $2 million on ads describing Akin as “too conservative.” She got her wish, as Akin won in a three-way race with 36 percent of the vote."

She purposely ran ads claiming Akin was "too conservative" knowing full well it would be a dog whistle to the teaklanners and other batshit crazy conservatives. She gambled that Akin would win a 3-way tie and she turned out to be right.

Whether she poured money into his campaign directly or poured money into ads gambling that he would win, either way, she helped him win.

quaker bill

(8,226 posts)
57. She isn't the only one
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:23 AM
Aug 2012

You will find that a number of dems who had funds ran ads calling the least capable opponent "too conservative" or their best opponent "not as conservative as candidate X", or "not a true conservative".

Only November will tell if this money was well spent. I expect it was.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
38. Hence my question about putting up
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:12 AM
Aug 2012

primary opposition. I know full well how the game is played -- never primary an incumbent. My questions was in response to the claims from Missouri Democrats that she is highly unpopular within her own party.

pstokely

(10,559 posts)
42. I doubt she's unpopular in the MO Dem party
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 12:27 AM
Aug 2012

But she's hated but a lot on here because she only votes with the party 98% of the time

loyalsister

(13,390 posts)
85. We are grateful for her!
Fri Aug 24, 2012, 12:39 AM
Aug 2012

Lawrence O'Donell had a good rant about why we should be grateful for her. The 51st Senator determines committees and can keep bills from hitting the floor. Our DINOs are much more valuable than some want to accept.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
54. You're complaining that she poured money into defeating Akin?
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:14 AM
Aug 2012

I don't understand that. Why would you have had her do? Sit back and hope for the best?

 

MadHound

(34,179 posts)
56. McCaskill did the only thing she could to win the election,
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:19 AM
Aug 2012

And it has succeeded magnificently.

She basically double dog dared state Republicans to elect the most conservative, wingnut candidate in the primary, and thus we got Akin. It was well known that Akin was a time bomb of a whack job, just a matter of time before he did something stupid.

And voila! less than two weeks after the primary, Akin did such a dumbass move that he lost ten points in the polls overnight, not to mention much of his funding.

He is toast now. Moderates, independents simply won't vote for this embarrassment of a man, and thus will vote for Claire. Not to mention that this one action reenergized the left and Democrats in this state. No, McCaskill wasn't popular in this state, not on the left, not on the right. But with Akin spewing this sort of garbage, people are now going to come out in droves to vote for her, which will not only give her the Senate, but could very well throw Missouri into Obama's column. After all, he only lost here in '08 by three thousand votes or so.

No, this wasn't a gamble, this was a brilliant stroke of political gamesmanship, and it is going to pay off handsomely this fall.

 

MadHound

(34,179 posts)
70. Oh, don't worry, people in this state will remember right up until election day,
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:35 PM
Aug 2012

Besides, Akin has another couple of months to fuck up again, and he will, so he will be providing near continuous reminders.

 

MadHound

(34,179 posts)
76. Probably will,
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:54 PM
Aug 2012

I'm not a big McCaskill fan, but I've got to hand it to her, she has run a real savvy campaign this year, rescuing victory from the jaws of defeat.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
58. This has forced the GOP war on women front and center
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 07:28 AM
Aug 2012

Thanks to Akins' mouth and his close ties to Ryan, it increasingly looks like the payoff for this HUGE gamble may be HUGER than anybody could have predicted or even imagined.

In the unlikely scenario that Dems now lose MO, that may well be more than counterbalanced by gains everywhere else.





Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
73. From what I can see,
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:41 PM
Aug 2012

there aren't going to be any other gains. One POSSIBLE exception is Massachusetts but Brown is still polling ahead of Warren. I can't think of any other Senate seat where the Democrats will gain.

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
66. Considering McCaskill is now winning by 10 points ...
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 03:02 PM
Aug 2012

I'd say the move (if she actually made a move, and I don't think she's that powerful among Republican voters) was brilliant

Response to Le Taz Hot (Original post)

arely staircase

(12,482 posts)
77. The McCaskill campaign poured money into the Akin campaign thinking that Akin was too bat-shit....
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:56 PM
Aug 2012

Lookin' like a pretty good move right about now!!

Lex

(34,108 posts)
80. Last night on Letterman's show, Rachel Maddow said McCaskill figured it was a pretty good bet that
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:34 PM
Aug 2012

Akin would eventually self-destruct his campaign by saying something extremely outrageous. And he did.

xmas74

(29,693 posts)
83. She already had on record the comments about him wanting to end Medicare
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:46 PM
Aug 2012

because the "government shouldn't be in health care" about him wanting to end free and reduced lunches for poor children because "government shouldn't be in education" and his comments about how grants and loans for college students are a "stage three cancer on the US."

She had plenty of ammo to start but he was more than helpful with dropping this bomb in our laps.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Did the Democrats miscalc...