The results of this mid term are even better than we know

[dsc]

In 1982, the annual unemployment rate was the highest it had been since the great depression (a bit over 10%). The annual unemployment rate this year will be less than half that. We got 55.2% of the two party House vote in 1982 the GOP got 43.4%. We will do a little bit worse that that this time but only a little. We should win by about 8% or 54% to 46%. In the Senate we gained one seat and won the vote by 11% in 1982. We won the popular vote this time but lost 3 seats. We won 7 governorships in 1982 and won 7 this time. So pretty similar results. But here is why these results are better.

Reagan and Trump had similar approval ratings but Reagan's were the result of the worst economy in the living memory of much of the electorate. Trump, conversely, had the best economy in 20 years and the lowest annual unemployment rate in 40 years. Even though we did a good job of turn out the electorate was slightly more white, and about the same otherwise and 2016. In short, this is about as good as it gets for the GOP and they got their heads handed to them in all but the Senate. Yes, Reagan came back in 1984 to win 49 states but he had a much better economy by then. Trump can't get a better economy than he has now. He also can't get better turn out than he got in 2018. In short, 2020 is likely to look a bunch like 2018. And that has got to terrify the GOP. There is no upside for them here. 2020 isn't going to be 1984.

[Honeycombe8]

1. Don't forget the gerrymandering on steroids that the Democrats had to overcome.

And the fraud by Republicans in Georgia and Florida.

[sandensea]

2. Excellent analysis.

Here's what the 2020 electoral map would look like, per Princeton's Sam Wang, if the 2018 House vote were repeated:

At: http://election.princeton.edu/2018/11/07/electoral-maps-based-on-2018-results/

[jcgoldie]

3. I'll take it.

We have to throw this fucker out in 2020 everything else is secondary.

[sandensea]

5. Hear, hear.

Unfortunately, we may not be able to count on Florida - not with DeStealis' greasy palms on the vote counting levers.

Fotunately, and if the 2018 results hold, we won't need to.

[onit2day]

9. I fear he will refuse to leave office

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Independents dictate everything

They went 4% for Trump then bolted away from him early in 2017, to the point it was 54% to 42% our way in the 2018 House exit poll.

Otherwise nothing happens. We don't retake the House courtesy of turnout advantage or crossover edge. It was all independents. And that block is 30% of the electorate.

Independents have a long history of shifting back to the incumbent two years later, if his party has been in power only one term.

I'm not taking anything for granted. We need Trump's approval to remain low. If it remains low, that is independents speaking.

[George II]

6. I did an analysis of the Senate about a week ago, here:

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100211437885

Big point is that even though we lost a few seats in the Senate, we had 25 up for grabs, republicans only 8, and still they lost two (Arizona and Nevada)

The next two cycles, 2020 and 2022, we're in MUCH better shape.

[sandensea]

7. Your word to God's ear.

Besides which, Medicare Rick only won because they withheld those Broward County ballots on the pretext that they were 2 minutes late.

Electronic ballot stuffing on a large scale may have happened as well (FL is still using easily-hacked ES&S machines with built-in modems).

That said, your observations were spot on. The numbers, as you noted, are on Democrats' side from here through 2022.

Let's just hope someone keeps a good eye on those black box voting machines until then. Should a Democrat take office as president, outlawing them should be job one.

Numerous developed countries already have. Only right-wing semi-democracies in the third world (as well as far-left ones like Venezuela) are now adopting them.

[Texin]

8. About those 7 governors' races...

In two of the seven Dems won, the state GOP legislators are now working feverishly to enact laws to restrict the authority of those incoming, democratically elected by the PEOPLE to represent them and govern in their names. They are doing everything they can to cram down last minute, lame duck legislation to disempower the duly-elected new governors! If this doesn't demonstrate the level of their corruption and their hellbent embrace of frankly Nazi-era tactics, I can't think of anything else that would.

[totodeinhere]

10. But remember that Reagan went on to be reelected in a landslide in 1984 in spite of the 1982

results. Lets make sure that history doen't repeat itself.