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Sun Nov 11, 2018, 12:08 PM

Hypothetically, if the economy was like it was in 2008/2010

How many total seats do you see us picking up in the house this past election? I see it as the landscape will be in 2020 (the economy will almost certainly be worse then than it is now, and we've already used up all of our normal anti-recession moves).

Gerrymandering included, I would assume we would have gained 50/55 seats in the house, and maybe a +1/+2 majority in the Senate.

I have a feeling that 2020 may be very similar to 2008, with the country revolting against Trump (Bush), going for someone who runs on a hope/change platform, and with us taking the Senate/White House and holding the House. (All assuming everyone GOTV!)

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Reply Hypothetically, if the economy was like it was in 2008/2010 (Original post)
NorCen_CT Nov 2018 OP
Garrett78 Nov 2018 #1
NorCen_CT Nov 2018 #2
John Fante Nov 2018 #3
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2018 #4
empedocles Nov 2018 #5
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2018 #6

Response to NorCen_CT (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2018, 12:20 PM

1. I don't think the economy has much of any impact on Trump supporters.

That cult runs on the fuel of racism and sexism, not economic conditions.

But a housing collapse or increase in unemployment would likely contribute to an even greater opposition to Trump/Republicans (i.e., turnout would be higher as a result).

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 11, 2018, 12:25 PM

2. Agreed, I definitely see that aspect of it (and I'll give him that 38/40%)

But I see the economy taking a decent shift backwards post holidays (when stores show small YoY losses due to tariffs), which will set off a chain reaction (sub-prime lending (autos and homes) defaults, which leads to layoffs, higher unemployment numbers, et al.

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Response to NorCen_CT (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2018, 12:43 PM

3. As we saw, when both sides are equally motivated

the Democrats win. We have the larger base.

And as long as Der Fuckwit is around, the motivation on our side will remain high. In which case, he's toast in 2020.

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Response to John Fante (Reply #3)

Sun Nov 11, 2018, 12:44 PM

4. We won 100 House seats and 12 seats in the Senate in 1932

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2018, 12:56 PM

5. That was huge flip

Thank you, had no idea.
However, would note that in 1932 Mr. Great Depression Hoover still got 40% of the vote. Landon 36% in '36, in 1940 Repubs pulled 45%.

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Response to empedocles (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 11, 2018, 01:03 PM

6. If we win 100 seats in 2020 the Repugs can caucus at a breakout room in a IHOP.

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