Florida just became a solid blue state for every future election.

[scheming daemons]

Last night, 8 million votes were cast in florida... and roughly 4 million went for the GOP and 4 million went for the Democrats.


But Amendment 4 passed overwhelmingly. This means that in the future, 1.4 former felons will now be allowed to vote in Florida that were banned from voting before.


I don't think it is a stretch to say that the large majority of those 1.4 million will register and vote Democratic, given the demographics of that group (roughly 50% African American).


If they could've voted this year, Gillum and Nelson win by sizeable margins.


Florida will be blue going forward.

[get the red out]

1. Florida gained hope

We have no hope in Kentucky, but I'm glad for any state that gets some! Florida going blue could help save the country.

[crazycatlady]

12. You have hope. Kim Davis lost.

[Blue_true]

46. Keep your head up.

Don't you have a Dem AG? Isn't he the son of a recent governor that brought the ACA to Kentucky. Keep fighting.

I was lucky enough to vote for Gillum, Nelson and Amendment 4. I lost on two, won on one, I will keep fighting.

[rurallib]

2. I have to think that those creative bastards in the Florida legislature are scheming

already on a "Plan B" to take away former felons newly restored rights.
Cjeating is what they do and they know they can't win without cheating.

[Blue_true]

47. They will try tricks. They are charged with rolling it out.

But Dems in the legislature and senate are an all around capable lot, I have faith that they will highlight bullshit from republicans.

[Wintryjade]

3. With that amendment passing, I am not buying it fell on Republican side. Hence, cheating.

[Codeine]

4. Assuming they're going to vote

may be over-optimistic.

[eleny]

19. GOTV starts now

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

5. That's a good thing.

No one should ever have their right to vote taken away. Maine voting laws allow people to vote from prison even, so of course anyone with felonies can vote here. 1.4 million is like the population of Maine, maybe a tiny bit more, so yeah, we've got way less felons here though.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Don't be a Happy Adjuster

Worst possible aspiration or tendency. Happy Adjusters are the types who thought we would receive unusually high number of crossover Republicans last night. Happy Adjusters announced that Puerto Rican transplants would be worth a hidden 4-6 points for Gillum.

Happy Adjusters have spent the past two years actually believing that Donald Trump was such a special case that he would either resign or be removed from office.

Happy Adjusters basically make every variable exactly what they want it to be. I was just watching the MSNBC coverage of last night, on tape. Happy Adjusters galore among Chuck Todd and Rachel Maddow, etc. When Nelson and Gillum led early by 5-6 points the Happy Adjusters on the MSNBC panel were in giddly delight, and describing all the reasons the Democrats won. Thank goodness I was watching grown up CNN last night. They never took anything for granted. I would have been going nuts if I had been watching MSNBC and all that Adjuster stupidity.

Anyway, someone here last night demonstrated marvelous anti-Adjuster clarity by insisting that the felons would blend to 50/50, just like the rest of the state. As I pointed out in that thread, it is vast advantage to be a gambler in a situation like this. Let's say Florida going forward is now up for odds. Do you think an oddsmaker will immediately and automatically adjust Florida to pro-Democratic, based on this new variable? He would be booted out of the profession in 5 minutes and never hired by anyone else. You can't survive as a Happy Adjuster when actual numbers and outcomes and dollars are at stake.

[eleny]

20. It's a block that won't be ignored by GOTV activity

Nobody in their right mind would simply ignore them. Those who worked hard to get the measure on the ballot and now enjoy victory will spearhead trying to get ex felons registered and motivated to vote. That's what I've learned by watching them interviewed on tv recently. They said that it's their next mission.

Not every constituency block is numbered in the millions. And every vote counts. So I'm encouraged by the passing of this measure since at its heart it removes the further penalization of people who have paid their legal debt recognizing them as full citizens. It's a good argument to make when encouraging them to vote.

[Codeine]

22. I bought into the Puerto Rican line

pretty thoroughly, which is sort of why I had a rough start to the evening when things went pear-shaped in Florida.

I’m usually pretty cynical and avoid that sort of mindset; not sure why I took the notion of PR transplants to heart.

[themaguffin]

7. Most states are blue if more people voted. I'll believe FL is blue when it votes blue

[Cicada]

8. New retirees arrive every day in Florida, maybe 20% of felons will vote

It’s not a done deal in Florida

[realmirage]

13. Yeah but I would think because of mortality rates the percentage is pretty stable

Morbid but logical

[sdfernando]

43. it is and it is

if they don't get medicare / medicaid fixed up then they will pass on at a faster rate...possibly faster than they can be replaced thus diminishing the old white pool of voters.

Another morbid thought....never thought denying healthcare could have an upside.

[lame54]

9. That's funny - I always equate felons to the repugs

[Hassin Bin Sober]

40. These people were actually convicted - and not pardoned by the repig governors.

People with good lawyers don’t get convicted. Or they get reduced to a misdemeanor.

[Tipperary]

10. We are placing our hope in felons now?

Alrighty then.

[scheming daemons]

14. No... on people who have served their time and are now full citizens again...

....and who should have their full rights of citizenship restored.

[Tipperary]

23. You think that these people are educated about the issues?

You think people who have served time in prison for felonies do not have prejudice and they are not in any way bigoted? You live in a nice world if you think that. I would love to be that idealistic.

[scheming daemons]

24. I'm sure they are just as educated as the average voter.

Once they are out and have served their time, they are just as much a citizen as you are.

[Tipperary]

45. Oh my goodness.

I have done outreach in prisons. I suggest you do the same. Many of these folks are functioning at a 6th grade educational level, or lower. And no, they have very little interest in politics- local or national.

[Jersey Devil]

11. I really doubt former felons are the kind of people who would be motivated to vote

I don't have any problem with them voting as long as they have paid their debts to society, but really, why would they be motivated to vote more than any others? In fact, seeing how many of them would probably be people who were down and out on their luck economically and working hard just to get by, I doubt many of them would even be paying attention to what was happening politically.

I hope that doesn't make me some sort of bigot, but that would be my first conclusion.

[scheming daemons]

15. The whole reason this ballot initiative existed is because many of them WANT to vote

...but were forbidden. Even though they served their debt to society.

[obamanut2012]

17. Well, it does

And yeah, they do.

One in five adult black men in FL cannot vote because of this... until now. One million of the 1.5 illion are OC.

[Jersey Devil]

18. Well, I apologize if I have offended

I certainly think everyone should have the same opportunity to vote. But I don't see their voting as some kind of magic pill that is going to save us in Florida every election as the OP contends.

[scheming daemons]

25. Increasing the voting rolls with more voters helps Democrats.

[Jersey Devil]

28. yes, absolutely, but

just enfranchising this one group doesn't magically transform Florida into a blue state as the OP contended. We have to get people out to vote across the board, not just from specific groups.

[scheming daemons]

29. Just simply adding this group to what voted yesterday give Dems a sizeable majority

The vote yesterday was about 4 million GOP and 4 million Dems.

This group is large enough to turn Florida from purple to blue.

[Jersey Devil]

36. Purple? I wish Florida was purple

Except for Obama I have a hard time thinking that Florida is anything other than a red southern state just like Georgia and Alabama. Look, sure it helps to have more registered voters who tend to vote Democrat. I just don't think the answer is that easy.

Whatever Obama had to get people out to win Florida twice is what we have to think about, then bottle it and pop the cork for every election.

[scheming daemons]

38. When a state has roughly 4 million Dem votes and 4 million GOP votes... it is purple

by definition.

[Jersey Devil]

42. Not when the 4 mil on the red side show up consistently and the blue side does not

That is the real problem. The people we already have don't show up. What was the Dem turnout in Florida? I bet it was barely 50% if it even got that high. Adding more people who don't show up isn't going to change anything. We have to figure out how to get everyone to vote in higher numbers.

[OrlandoDem2]

32. This amendment was started by 2 felons. If only 20% vote I bet Dems gain a lot.

This is about racial justice and crimibal justice reform. We shouldn’t have ever had such draconian laws regarding restoration of voting rights to those who have paid their debt to society.

[obamanut2012]

16. I posted an OP saying that earlier

And had many naysayers or, "Yeah, but..."

I agree with you.

Old racist retirees from the NE dying off and A4 will make Florida True Blue.

[eissa]

21. A more reliable voting bloc will be

young kids who will reach voting age by 2020. Many of them have been inspired by the Parkland survivors, but were not of voting age this year.

I also hope the local Dem party will make a massive effort to target people eligible for citizenship. That will be a huge boost to states like FL, TX and AZ.

[Demovictory9]

26. Florida will spend the next 2 years trying to block their registration

creating all kinds of crazy rules. Former felons must hop on one leg and pass a calculus test.

[RhodeIslandOne]

27. There are plenty of white racists who've been to jail

I think you're assuming a lot.

[scheming daemons]

30. I'm not saying all 1.4 million will vote Democratic

But the majority will... at least 2 to 1.

[RhodeIslandOne]

33. And you're convinced they all want to vote?

A lot of people who've been to jail aren't interested in participating in the government.

[scheming daemons]

34. The whole reason this ballot initiative existed is because many of them WANT to vote

Let's say only 1/3 want to vote.... and 2/3 of those vote Democratic.

That's 300,000 more Democratic votes and about 150,000 Republican votes.


Net gain of 150,000.


And that's a very conservative estimate.

[standingtall]

35. That's probably being overly optimistic

we will be lucky if even half of them are willing to vote and of those that are willing to vote half of them will be prevented from voting through republican voter suppression tactics.

[AJT]

31. Oddly enough a lot of white ex-cons vote Republican.

[scheming daemons]

37. White male ex-cons are only 30% of the ex-cons in Florida.

[standingtall]

39. And the most likely ex-cons

not to have their votes suppressed.

[scheming daemons]

41. Any addition to the Democratic votes in FL is helpful...

...especially when it is a 50/50 state right now, essentially.

[John Fante]

44. convicted felons only vote at a 15% rate nationally.

But I could see that number hitting 20-25% for Florida in 2020 on the strength of this law's passage. Nothing like having one's rights restored to get them to exercise it.

It's a huge stretch to say FL is democratic now, but this additional boost certainly won't hurt. I'm more excited about WI/Mi/PA rejecting Trump last night TBH. Repairing the Blue Wall is a must.

[Separation]

48. Well you and I had better keep a damn close eye on them

Because if there is a legislative way for them to block, gerrymander, or just downright out lie. They will, because anyone watching Trump's "Post Fight Interview" interview should hopefully been able to tell, was that the man talking has had reality completely removed from his head.

[Cetacea]

49. Nelson and Gillum probably had sizeable margins

Whenever I see defeats to GOP by one percentage point my red flags go off, especially when it's Florida. Good post, though, and very true.

[Stinky The Clown]

50. If 50% is African American, what percentage are skinheads?

It ain't a walk on the yellow brick road in there.

[David__77]

51. It's just one aspect to consider.

Voter registration will be a big deal and very important. Mobilizing a majority will require a lot more than getting some people who committed crimes to vote.

[GulfCoast66]

52. 20% of African Americans males in Florida can't vote

Just correcting that is a liberal effort. Study up on these laws. They were included in the constitution for no other reason than to suppress the black vote

Most of these men are not in jail but in the workforce. Most convicted of drug crimes or other such things when they were young men. I have no doubt the base of our party in Florida(African Americans) will get busy on registering them. I work with several black men who surprised me when they told me they could not vote for crimes committed decades ago.

As far as skin heads and many others, violent criminals are excluded from the amnesty. As are those with felony sex convictions.

I don’t believe this alone changes Florida Blue, but it corrects an injustice based entirely on racism.