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General Discussion

NRaleighLiberal

(60,044 posts) Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:12 PM Nov 2018

2

538 numbers looking odd.. down to 75% chance on house,

Senate less than 5%. WtF?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

21 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 numbers looking odd.. down to 75% chance on house, (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Nov 2018 OP

It's updating live as data comes in. Don't look at it! Blaukraut Nov 2018 #1

please explain agingdem Nov 2018 #5

they factor in return numbers and adjust their odds n/t Blaukraut Nov 2018 #10

Gonna be a long night.... unblock Nov 2018 #2

Oh come on budkin Nov 2018 #3

Yes, really. donnie will still be president. unblock Nov 2018 #16

96.6 % i just checked blitzen Nov 2018 #4

down to 67.6% krawhitham Nov 2018 #8

I'm having a flashback to 2016 renate Nov 2018 #11

me too krawhitham Nov 2018 #12

ignore that beachbum bob Nov 2018 #6

Senate shooting up... 32% blitzen Nov 2018 #7

The Senate chances at 538 likely dropped because of IN and TN Polybius Nov 2018 #9

68% now Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #13

Unbelievable...now 52.6% Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #14

Yup. Early, but...yikes NRaleighLiberal Nov 2018 #17

Now down to 1 in 2, with a 24 seat pick-up. nt pnwmom Nov 2018 #15

Shit. Now down to 2 in 5 for Dems in House. Liberty Belle Nov 2018 #18

Wtf is going on? Getting wicked deja vu. NRaleighLiberal Nov 2018 #20

STAY OFF OF 538 BumRushDaShow Nov 2018 #19

It just got better - now back to 4 in 7 for Dems in House. Liberty Belle Nov 2018 #21

Blaukraut

(5,695 posts)

1. It's updating live as data comes in. Don't look at it!

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:13 PM

Nov 2018

If you want to retain sanity

agingdem

(7,888 posts)

5. please explain

Reply to Blaukraut (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:15 PM

Nov 2018

what does updating live as data comes in mean? I'm math-challenged so keep that in mind

Blaukraut

(5,695 posts)

10. they factor in return numbers and adjust their odds n/t

Reply to agingdem (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:18 PM

Nov 2018

unblock

(52,572 posts)

2. Gonna be a long night....

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:13 PM

Nov 2018

And a long two years....

budkin

(6,737 posts)

3. Oh come on

Reply to unblock (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:15 PM

Nov 2018

Really?

unblock

(52,572 posts)

16. Yes, really. donnie will still be president.

Reply to budkin (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:20 PM

Nov 2018

I'm looking forward to winning the house, but it will still be a long two years....

blitzen

(4,572 posts)

4. 96.6 % i just checked

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:15 PM

Nov 2018

krawhitham

(4,651 posts)

8. down to 67.6%

Reply to blitzen (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:16 PM

Nov 2018

renate

(13,776 posts)

11. I'm having a flashback to 2016

Reply to krawhitham (Reply #8)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:18 PM

Nov 2018

This can't be normal.

krawhitham

(4,651 posts)

12. me too

Reply to renate (Reply #11)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:19 PM

Nov 2018

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)

6. ignore that

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:15 PM

Nov 2018

blitzen

(4,572 posts)

7. Senate shooting up... 32%

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:15 PM

Nov 2018

Polybius

(15,576 posts)

9. The Senate chances at 538 likely dropped because of IN and TN

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:16 PM

Nov 2018

Still early though.

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

13. 68% now

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:19 PM

Nov 2018

I wasn't prepared for this drop, not after we hit 95%

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

14. Unbelievable...now 52.6%

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:20 PM

Nov 2018

I'm numb

NRaleighLiberal

(60,044 posts)

17. Yup. Early, but...yikes

Reply to Awsi Dooger (Reply #14)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:22 PM

Nov 2018

pnwmom

(109,031 posts)

15. Now down to 1 in 2, with a 24 seat pick-up. nt

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:20 PM

Nov 2018

Liberty Belle

(9,543 posts)

18. Shit. Now down to 2 in 5 for Dems in House.

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:24 PM

Nov 2018

3 in 5 for Reps. I want to vomit.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,044 posts)

20. Wtf is going on? Getting wicked deja vu.

Reply to Liberty Belle (Reply #18)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:26 PM

Nov 2018

BumRushDaShow

(130,389 posts)

19. STAY OFF OF 538

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:25 PM

Nov 2018

All it does is "live update" as data gets fed into it and there is a whole shitload of data that will be coming in all night long.

Liberty Belle

(9,543 posts)

21. It just got better - now back to 4 in 7 for Dems in House.

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:26 PM

Nov 2018

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