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Sat Nov 3, 2018, 11:48 AM

Thinking back on the DU election hack two years ago - this thought hit me

First, from Skinner's post about the hack (which is here to remind you - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10137748)

In that post is a link to the video that was plastered on DU just before Skinner shut us down (you can find it in Skinner's post, above)

A few seconds in to the video, it shows a computer screen - if you enlarge it, it is possible to read the tabs of the pages open, as well as the quick links to the programs used at the bottom (I suspect we will never find out which asshole or group did this)....

but if you look at the screen of DU before it was shut down, there is a post at about five seconds that notes that Real Time Exit Data indicated Hillary leading in ALL swing states.

Whether 538 or the NYT or Sam Wang's Princeton group, we had this election. We now know Hillary won by 3 million votes. My personal feeling is that the election was stolen - hacked - it would not have taken many vote flips in a few key states. Whether we ever find out...who knows.

As we approach next Tuesday, I wish I had any confidence at all that what we find as the outcome is accurate - we already know the impact gerrymandering is having, we know that all sorts of blockades are being or have been put in place to make it hard for Democrats to vote in many places.

I feel a sense of deja vu - 538 and other sites showing the Dems with an 85% chance of taking the house. It makes me really nervous as to what we will see once Tuesday passes.

But I don't think we will ever again be able to have an election day when we aren't taken back to that awful loss of DU, the hack, the unbelievable results we witnessed unfold, and the two year plus depression - anger - disbelief - that most of us here have been living with.

Here's to a much better outcome on Tuesday - and hats off to all who have worked so hard to make it the first hopeful step in fixing the absolute mess we are in.



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Reply Thinking back on the DU election hack two years ago - this thought hit me (Original post)
NRaleighLiberal Nov 3 OP
jcgoldie Nov 3 #1
Laffy Kat Nov 3 #2
NRaleighLiberal Nov 3 #3
SWBTATTReg Nov 3 #4
Wintryjade Nov 3 #5
lamsmy Nov 3 #6
boston bean Nov 3 #7
Awsi Dooger Nov 3 #8
Ohio Barbarian Nov 3 #9

Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 11:52 AM

1. Trump voters lied in exit polls

... because even then they were ashamed of what they had done.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 11:56 AM

2. There was never a doubt in my mind that the election was stolen.

And they got away with it and continue to get away with it. I know I'm cynical and I still voted and will continue to, but I do think we were robbed.

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Response to Laffy Kat (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 11:59 AM

3. with ya - cynical, and voted. and remain cynical and really super pissed off.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 11:59 AM

4. You're right about the awful loss of DU when it went off the evening of elections 2016. ...

I am confident that we will prevail. rump is a walking, living, breathing advertisement for our values each and everyday. We have good people running as good qualified candidates.

Perhaps the loss of DU that evening in 2016 makes us more wary, more appreciative of the things we have now w/ the DU community. They never really clarified or specified what exactly happened in DU being taken down in 2016, and that probably a good thing, don't give out information that can possibly be used to bring the system down later. Other steps were probably undertaken too, that we don't know of (and that is a good thing too) to prevent any later takedowns of DU).

Of course those w/ star memberships too, will have the advantage in that if something happens, the restricted roster would put less strain on DU system resources. Keeping my fingers crossed, looking forward to communicating w/ our fellow DUers (expressing and enjoying our first amendment rights) on election night. May the force be with us, guide us, and protect us.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 12:04 PM

5. I think key states was hacked, too.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 12:41 PM

6. Suspicions aren't evidence.

Please don't go off on conspiracies al a the GOP.

Numerically, Trump's win was possible via the electoral college. There is zero evidence of any ballot tampering or counting irregularities. None.

Was the anti-Clinton hysteria fanned by the Russians? Definitely. Did Russian money make it's way into some GOP candidates' coffers? Quite possibly.

But there is absolutely no evidence to date that the election was fixed.

One party has to stand on facts and truth. Please let it be the Dems.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 12:46 PM

7. I just re-watched the video.

It reinforces my opinion it was a Russian hack.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 12:46 PM

8. Huge difference between 85% and 65-72%

I don't think that is widely understood. If the number is well above 50% people seem to take it for granted.

Nate Silver ranted recently regarding the poor understanding of probability by the media. No kidding.

I always try to assign sports favoritism numbers as reference, but I'm not sure it does much good. However, here's another go. Hillary after the Comey letter dropped to 65% on 538, and then shifted between 65 and 72 for the final 10 days. That 65% aligns with a 4 point favorite in the NFL.

Bump it to 85% and now you are talking about a 10.5 point favorite. Now, I don't know too many sports analysts who look at a 4 point favorite the same as a 10.5 point favorite, but that's essentially what was going on here and on other progressive sites. Hillary's numbers dropped, but no big deal. Look at how far above 50% she is!

Here's a money line converter, if anyone wants to tinker with numbers and verify.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/spread-ml-converter/

Weeks ago I emphasized here that is was critical to keep that 538 House number above 75% and not drop it to 70% or lower. Margin for error is everything. I do believe we are in an American version of Shy Tory, with conservative white voters distrusting of the press and also anyone who is asking their opinion. If there is a polling error we need to be above the line sufficiently to withstand it in the House.

Those states that Hillary lost in the midwest are left leaning states, but not ones that can be taken for granted. That was Hillary's error, and similar to her flawed primary strategy in 2008 by ignoring the smaller and caucus states. Those midwestern states have a gap between self-identified liberals and conservatives of 6-9%.The national gap was 9% in that category in 2016. So you can see they barely tilt to our side in ideological terms yet somehow the Clinton camp put too much stock in poll numbers and thought she didn't need to campaign in those states. It would have been like Trump rationalizing that he didn't need to campaign in Florida, since Florida has a slight red tilt, roughly 11% more conservatives that liberals, compared to the national number of 9%.

I love Hillary but her stupid strategy does not receive enough attention, particularly coming out of the 2014 midterm in which every analysis screamed that Democrats had a crisis among white working class voters. Those upper midwestern states are heavily white and had suffered manufacturing job losses. Perfect for Trump's lies and fear. Hillary should have spent two full years working on messaging and emphasis toward those states. If so, everything else would have fallen into place.

In reading "Shattered" I came away convinced that Bill and Hillary and the Clinton team in general completely ignored the 2014 midterm, and all the ominous signs it contained. The 2016 election was not stolen by suppression as much as it was forfeited by ignorance and overconfidence. We never should have spent one minute campaigning in North Carolina, a state with more than 40% self-identified conservatives. Obama narrowly winning North Carolina in 2008 was one of the worst things to happen to Democratic politics in decades, IMO. It provided a false sense of optimism there, and distracted us from states that needed to be shored up.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #8)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 01:51 PM

9. Great, accurate, and perhaps even courageous analysis for this forum. Thank you.

 

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