This is a cool mid term projection tool

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.political-atlas.com/

[wryter2000]

1. There isn't a single safe R race in all of California

And only 7 in the other two R categories.

[NorCen_CT]

2. Never seen this before

I don't know how I've missed this before - thanks!

In depressing news, my congressman (D) was a +30 in the 2016 election, while Hillary was only a +3 (THREE!). A 27 point swing is absolutely insane.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. For reference purposes on terms like "Lean" and "Likely"

This summary from 538 recently was very helpful, on the average outcome given the terms. Otherwise the words are too vague:

Chart is deep within this link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-house-forecast-methodology/

"Toss-up" = 0 points
“Tilts” toward candidate -- average margin of victory 4 points
“Leans” toward candidate -- average margin of victory 7 points
“Likely” for candidate -- average margin of victory 12 points
“Solid” or “safe” for candidate -- average margin of victory 34 points

Based on House races since 1998.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. Hmm showing tx Senate leaning red. Map I saw

The other day showed it toss up. But hell, already seeing slime throwing all over Facebook against Beto...so the fix is in.

[brooklynite]

5. Nobody I'm aware of is calling TX-SEN a Toss-up at this point.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. No chance that race is a toss up

Cruz basically considered 65% likely:

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5313/Will-Ted-Cruz-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Texas-in-2018#data

Interesting comments below that market price. Nearly 1000 comments. I always like to read what the political bettors are saying because they are aware of things that aren't readily obvious.

Frankly I am going to wager on Cruz if the odds become somewhat more favorable. Other commenters on the political market have said the same thing. I think it is too low on him right now.

I don't have any problem wagering one way and rooting the other way. I did it hundreds of times in Las Vegas, on politics and especially sports.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Another site

I hate to link anything connected to John Stossel, but this site gives us much higher odds on reclaiming the senate than other versions.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

That site uses odds from PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/82/Congressional-Primaries

Actually, the betting markets have been less bullish on Democrats winning the House than sites like 538, but not as pessimistic on the senate. It's been an overall trend for months. Betting sites are more like 63-64% on the House instead of low 70s%, but basically double the opportunity in the senate.