The Green Party didn't cost the Dems this election...

[Drunken Irishman]

The margin is 1,754 for Balderson - more than the total votes votes that went to the Green Party candidate (1,127).

Even if that weren't the case, though, it's not a solid narrative, IMO, to blame the Green Party. I say this not to dismiss the idea that the Green Party actively works against the Democratic Party, but to not overuse this narrative, especially when it's not statistically the appropriate time.

Even if the Green Party's vote total was more than the eventual margin Balderson had on O’Connor, that still doesn't mean the Green Party would have cost him the race. I say this definitively because the share of the vote they bring to the table is minuscule.

Beyond that, it's naive, or ignorant, to believe every single one of those 1,127 votes would have gone to O'Connor - let alone even cast their vote if the Green Party didn't exist.

Hell, you could make the case many of those voters probably wouldn't have voted at all if the Green Party wasn't on the ballot, since if a close, statistically tied race wasn't enough to drive 'em to O'Connor, I doubt the lack of Green Party would have driven them to the polls to vote for him anyway.

But let's assume 75% of those who voted Green Party still showed up to vote in this election. 75% of 1,127 is just 845 people. Now I promise you, not all of those 845 people would have voted for O'Connor. So, let's assume 80% voted for O'Connor and 20% voted for Balderson. That's just 676 people - and that's being generous with the idea that 75% of those voters would have voted anyway.

The Green Party didn't cost the Democrats this seat. The fact it was an ultra-conservative district that no Democrat has held since 1983, is what got 'em. But maybe in November they'll get payback.

Had the Green Party received the same amount of support as they did in 2016 (13,474), then maybe you'd have a point...but they were totally insignificant in this race. Don't lose sight of the gains and continue to focus on the gaps.

[joshcryer]

1. Your numbers are fair and considerate.

But still. Fuck the Green Party.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Agreed!

[Adrahil]

20. Well,said. NT

[Fred Sanders]

2. Damn math!

[Glamrock]

4. What are you doing man?

That's a favorite scapegoat!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

5. Thank you for your thoughtful, careful analysis, my dear Drunken Irishman.

Your reasonable voice is needed, tonight especially.

[Garrett78]

6. "...you could make the case many of those voters probably wouldn't have voted at all..."

I'd say it's all but certain that most of them simply wouldn't have voted at all.

[LandOfHopeAndDreams]

7. Democrats Who Don't Bother To Vote Is What Cost Us

Because a large percentage of Registered Democratic voters did not take the 5 minutes it would have required, to complete an absentee ballot, or the 15 minutes it would have taken to vote in person.

I'm guessing far more than 1,700 Registered Democrats couldn't care less apparently.

[progressoid]

10. Yup. n/t

[Quemado]

26. You are right - it's voter apathy

Nt

[oasis]

8. "If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem"

---Eldridge Cleaver

[RestoreAmerica2020]

9. What's perplexing to me, is that the een Party's platform is closer to democrtaic values, so why

Last edited Wed Aug 8, 2018, 02:28 AM - Edit history (1)

...vote republican? Am I missing something about green party members, voters ?

[Wikipedia]
What are the basic beliefs of the Green Party?
Ten Key Values
Grassroots Democracy.
Social Justice And Equal Opportunity.
Ecological Wisdom.
Non-Violence.
Decentralization.
Community-Based Economics.
Feminism And Gender Equity.
Respect For Diversity.

[GregD]

11. I agree - the Dems didn't come out. Almost 13k less than 2016.

Look here:
https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/OH

use your browser "find" for "112,638"

Democratic 112,638 29.84%

What could it possibly take to get the damn voters off their asses and out to the polls? Are things not bad enough? If they do this in November we are fucked.

[TreasonousBastard]

14. I've been asking that for years. GOTV is our biggest challenge around here.

[uponit7771]

18. When have primary vote counts ever exceeded general election presidential counts?

[LeftInTX]

12. I recently read they didn't even cost Florida

It was confusion on the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County and Pat Buchanan.

Pat Buchanan got a bunch of votes in Palm Beach County and he claims that all those people could not have voted for him and that they were Gore voters.

[dembotoz]

13. If u smile when libertarian votes screw up gop totals

U can not scream if the greens screw up ours

[JI7]

15. why not ? many of us do want republicans to lose and it makes us smile

when they do.

[dembotoz]

24. the greens are our version of libertarian....

[JI7]

29. the greens want republicans to win

[shanny]

32. lol

if a voter wants republicans to win, the voter votes for the republican, not for somebody else

[dembotoz]

33. Thank you

[Raine]

17. Thank you

for using reason over blame..

[genxlib]

19. I disagree with your contention

You are probably right that some portion of them would stay home and that some portion would not vote Democratic.

That still makes those people part of the problem. Doing either of those things is still contrary to their stated goals and very unhelpful in actually moving forward.

[NCTraveler]

21. This is a serious misuse and abuse of statistics.

It uses statistics to come to a point that has a much larger human element.

This completely ignores the Green Party campaign and how it influences individuals to stay home, vote for Republicans, and the GP candidate.

Severely flawed argument void of major metrics in order to make a preconceived point.

[Vinca]

22. I just heard O'Connor on MSNBC say there are 8,000 votes left to count so

it is possible the Green Party could have pushed the election one way or the other. I don't know why people can't figure it out. Ours is not a form of government that is conducive to more than 2 parties. I wish it was, but all a third party does is unwittingly put people like Trump in office.

[Tom Rinaldo]

23. Very well reasoned. You are right

Some people intentionally vote simply to be different, just like some people pick clothes for that reason. Some people are wedded to associating with outsiders, it fits their self identity. People have all kinds of reasons for voting the way they do, some principled others not so much. I have no doubt that many of the Green voters in that district would have voted Democratic if there had been no Green candidate, but not all of them would have.My guess, like yours, is a lot would not have voted. Or they would have found a different means to reject the main party choices, write in votes for example.

If they listened to me, of course, they wouldn't.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. Absolutely...

I have a couple friends from high school who will, under no circumstance, vote Democratic. Ever. They wouldn't have even voted Bernie had he won the nomination because the Democratic Party, in their mind, is the Establishment regardless and it goes against their personal code, I guess, to ever support a Democrat. No amount of reasoning, and no amount of competitiveness in the race, will change their mind.

I try reasoning with them but they're wholly anti-establishment and that means voting against the two parties every single time for every single race ... or they abstain from voting if there isn't an option to do so.

[bullwinkle428]

25. Sir - have not you not realized to this point, that number-crunching

and nuance is typically FROWNED UPON in this establishment!!

K&R.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

28. A vote for a Green is a symbolic (i.e. wasted) vote- unless there's a real chance for one to win

Who doesn't know that by now? And if they voted Republican or stayed home and didn't vote instead of voting for the Democrat, they aren't real progressives JMHO.

[stonecutter357]

30. cool story bro !

[Initech]

31. Excuse me for all caps but I feel I must: IT'S THE FUCKING PRIMARIES!!!!!

We can't get too worked up about a damn primary election! You'd have to hold people at gun point to get them to vote in the primaries and if we argue too much about who voted for who, that Blue Wave won't happen in November. It's the primaries - nobody votes in these elections, and that's a huge part of why our electorate is so fucked up. As Will Ferrell said in the movie Old School - we got to keep our composure! We can't have anyone freaking out here!