Ohio special election emerges as Democrats' next best chance to stun GOP
In the dead of the summer, a wave test looms.
The venue is Ohio's 12th Congressional District, where a special election to fill the seat vacated by Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi is scheduled for Aug. 7. Taking in all or part of seven counties around Columbus, the district backed Donald Trump by 11 points in 2016 and Mitt Romney by 10 before that.
Normally, it would be a lock for the GOP.
But Democrats are hoping 2018 will prove to be a wave year, and there's already plenty of evidence to support their optimism. A tight contest here — or an outright Democratic victory — would significantly reinforce the idea that the party is in for big gains in November. A solid Republican win, on the other hand, would provide a fresh dose of optimism for the GOP that its 23-seat House majority can be saved.
Just consider the House special elections already held since Trump took office. So far, there have been seven that pitted a Democrat against a Republican (a June 2017 special election in California's heavily Democratic 34th Congressional District did not include a Republican in the runoff), and five of them have featured sizable movement toward the Democrats relative to the Trump-Hillary Clinton result.
On average in these races, Democrats have slashed the Trump-Clinton margin by 10.5 points — almost exactly the spread by which Trump carried Ohio's 12th District in 2016. So it's not hard to imagine the Aug. 7 contest becoming a barnburner.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/ohio-special-election-emerges-democrats-next-best-chance-stun-gop-n883916
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This should be doable.
Go Ohio!
