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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538: Trump's approval rating has declined in every state since Jan. 2017
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trumps-popularity-is-holding-up-by-state/snip
"1. Trumps net approval has declined in all 50 states since he took office
This isnt totally surprising, as Trumps net approval rating the percentage of people who approve of the president minus the percentage who disapprove has declined nationally since January 2017. But its still noteworthy. It often seems as if American politics is split between two immutable camps: Trump loyalists and Trump haters, and neither group ever changes its mind about anything. But the data here suggests more fluidity and in Trumps case, the movement is against him. Trump does have near-ironclad support (close to 90 percent approval, according to Gallup) among self-described Republicans nationally. But a Gallup poll conducted last year found that only about 40 percent of U.S. adults identify themselves as either Republicans or leaning toward the GOP. So that remaining 60 percent of the U.S. that identifies as Democrats and independents is likely where Trump has grown more unpopular."
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"2. Trump has seen big declines in some red states but not others
Eight of the 10 states (Im treating Washington, D.C., as a state for these purposes.) where Trumps net approval declined the most are places where the president lost in 2016. But his popularity has plunged more in ruby-red Utah (-27 points), Oklahoma (-23) and Montana (-21) than in swingy Colorado (-17) and blue California (-15). (Trump of course started with pretty lackluster numbers California and Colorado, so he had more room to fall in the red states.) That said, his numbers have held up much better in states such as South Carolina (-11), West Virginia (-10) and South Dakota (-7)."
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mythology
(9,527 posts)Ace Rothstein
(3,271 posts)His disapproval of Republicans can lead to some of them staying home on election day which works almost as well as flipping a vote. You also have to figure there are some who will disapprove but turn around and vote Republican anyway.
pstokely
(10,599 posts)and they never really liked him much to begin with, but maybe didn't like HRC much more
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)They favored Trump in 2016 but prefer Democrats on the generic ballot now.
I would take an extra point or two net among Independents from now until election day and not care at all about GOTV. Give me preference edge over turnout emphasis every time.
Matthew28
(1,821 posts)Pa, Michigan and Wis.
If we can't shift those back into the democratic column then Trump will be reelected in 2020
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)But PA is stubborn. Trump has a 46% approval rating there. That's not great but it's not awful, either, and means that's probably his floor in that state. Which means it'll once again prove to be a very close state, which is not something the Democrats want since it'll take resources from other states.
Maine is another one that's troubling - as is Florida, as Trump actually has a 50% approval rating there.
donkeypoofed
(2,187 posts)They're.still.hacking and haven't stopped since 2016
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)That's irrelevant. Trump has seen a decline in overall support since he took office, which isn't surprising, but how does it compare to his support prior to the election - and what about the states he won that Obama won in 2012?
I really don't care that he's lost support among Utahns since he took office. Utah will still vote for him in 2020. I do care about Pennsylvania and Michigan and Ohio.
In Pennsylvania, Trump's approval is 46%. Right now, he's starting with a floor of 46%, which is scary because despite everything that has happened, Trump's approval is still barely under 50% in a state Democrats have won nationally every election for the last 30 years up until 2016. It's the exact same number in Ohio. His disapproval in both states is 50%.
That means, in two major states, Trump is barely under water and within striking distance.
It's better in Michigan, where he's 43-52 approval/disapproval.
It's even better in Wisconsin at 42-54 - which is good.
Iowa has also trended from Trump, which is good news. He's down 44-51. A bit more breathing room there compared to PA and OH.
But even if the Democratic Nominee wins Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin, they still lose the election if they lose PA.
And right now, I'm not sold on PA. Those numbers are too favorable to Trump. Way too favorable. That's scary.
It also looks like Florida is gone. Trump actually has a 50% approval there. Sad that the state is trending more and more conservative. It really is a state that makes any future Democratic victory that much more difficult to attain if it goes solidly into the GOP corner.
pstokely
(10,599 posts)the coal comeback fantasy might also be helping him in PA
Hekate
(93,581 posts)...no breakdown by party affiliation, but I thoroughly doubted my eyes when that came on. That's just nuts. More than half of us never voted for the bastard in the first place.