Everything You Need To Know About The Pennsylvania 18th Special Election (from 538)

[a kennedy]

........ the party that wins the Pennsylvania special election will be said to have the momentum heading into the pivotal midterm elections later this year. In our view, that’s a bit overblown — in reality, it’s the margin of victory that tells us what to expect in midterm results, and Democrat Conor Lamb is likely to overperform in Pennsylvania no matter who wins. We will still be watching that margin closely, though, and a decisive victory by Republican Rick Saccone could be a sign that that something in the political environment has changed. So here’s what you need to know to follow the race.

(longer read)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-pennsylvania-18th-special-election/

[mcar]

1. Kick

[grantcart]

2. One of the most important elements was missing from the article le

massive expenditures by GOP have not shown to have any impact on the polls.

WP and Politico both ran stories to this effect.

[beachbum bob]

3. I am of the mindset the hysterical attacks on Lamb by all the OUTSIDE GOP special interests

is actually helping Lamb and a good last day ads of why are outside special interest groups trying to force their views on the good voters of PA-18th district? I would also have an ad running on how little support the republican has from people of the 18th district as well as of Pennsylvania itself by the fundraising numbers

[NewJeffCT]

4. We don't know if the money has had an effect

Maybe if Saccone had spent the same amount as Lamb in total (meaning, a lot less), he would be down 10-15 points instead of being in a statistical dead heat?