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Ron Baiman (Ph. D.): U.S. 2016 Unadjusted Exit Poll Discrepancies.... (Affadavit) (Original Post) triron Mar 2018 OP
I'd like to see the data confirmed by cloudbase Mar 2018 #1
I suspect the data are good. Igel Mar 2018 #2
'Adjust' it to what? How would that make it more random? triron Mar 2018 #3
Read it. RandomAccess Mar 2018 #4
The term Unadjusted in this case refers to the fact that the exit polling outfit rgbecker Mar 2018 #7
That actually began with the 2000 Presidential election RandomAccess Mar 2018 #9
Thank you, thank you, thank you RandomAccess Mar 2018 #5
You are very welcome. triron Mar 2018 #6
To your "THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU" I assume you're confirming "STOLEN, STOLEN, STOLEN"? brush Mar 2018 #8
knr triron Mar 2018 #10

Igel

(35,515 posts)
2. I suspect the data are good.
Sun Mar 11, 2018, 09:22 PM
Mar 2018

I suspect that the interpretation isn't.

The key is the word "unadjusted." In the absence of a random sample, you need to adjust the data. Just declaring what's known to be non-random to be random doesn't cut it.

triron

(22,103 posts)
3. 'Adjust' it to what? How would that make it more random?
Sun Mar 11, 2018, 10:12 PM
Mar 2018

The author is trained in mathematics and statistics. Why don't you address your criticism to him?

rgbecker

(4,840 posts)
7. The term Unadjusted in this case refers to the fact that the exit polling outfit
Sun Mar 11, 2018, 11:47 PM
Mar 2018

adjusts their numbers, as the election evening goes along, to reflect the actual Vote Count.

Biggest problem that I see is that the polling company does not release their unadjusted numbers and the professor must rely on getting screen shots of polling results during the evening.

It is so crazy. Why doesn't somebody with some integrity conduct an exit poll and really let people know what is going on. Some how the UN or US government conducts such polling in numerous foreign countries but we get nothing and are supposed to trust the Media and State govenrments to give us honest results.

 

RandomAccess

(5,210 posts)
9. That actually began with the 2000 Presidential election
Mon Mar 12, 2018, 05:47 PM
Mar 2018

when media news outlets determined they apparently couldn't admit to election fraud right here in the U.S. and so started adjusting their exit polling "results" to fit the actual election results. It's been downhill ever since.

 

RandomAccess

(5,210 posts)
5. Thank you, thank you, thank you
Sun Mar 11, 2018, 10:32 PM
Mar 2018

THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!

Did I say "thank you" yet?

THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Ron Baiman (Ph. D.): U.S....