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[scheming daemons]

1. Explain how the mass arrest and deportation would NOT happen without the "cave".

And you have it exactly backwards.

The optics of 800,000 people being rounded up and deported... if that happens.... will increase substantially the Dems ability to retake the House or Senate.

...and that's why it won't happen. GOP will either make a deal on DACA.... or if they don't, Trump will blink and extend DACA another 6 months. Even his reptilian brain knows that the optics of his ICE gestapo rounding up Dreamers from their homes will increase the size of the Big Blue Wave.

[angrychair]

2. Sorry, I dont believe that

First off the damage is done, many Dems will see this as yet again more Dem weakness in dealing with republicans. We gave in for little more than a “promise to look at it” but no actually promises to do anything.

Trump and republicans DO NOT CARE what “people” think, they care what their base thinks and their base will cheer them till the end of time for deporting the 800,000 Dreamers.

If they actually cared they would have resolved it long ago.

I have very little doubt that mass arrest and deportation will start immediately on March 5th and at this point the Dems will shrug and say “we tried but those darn republicans tricked us”

[scheming daemons]

5. Almost every sentence of your response is wrong. Here's why:

"First off the damage is done, many Dems will see this as yet again more Dem weakness in dealing with republicans. We gave in for little more than a “promise to at it” but no actually promises to do anything."

We didn't give in for "little more than a promise". 9 million poor kids now have their health insurance restored for 6 years. The GOP no longer has that bargaining chip.

And your "many Dems will see this as more Dem weakness" is nonsense. Only weak-minded Dems who don't know how to game things out will think that way. The Bernie Bros. and the Jill Stein bots.

"Trump and republicans DO NOT CARE what “people” think, they care what their base thinks and their base will cheer them till the end of time for deporting the 800,000 Dreamers."

The Trump base is not large enough on its own. It *NEEDS* independents and moderates in order to win national elections. They got those folks in 2016 because they were able to split off the half that didn't like Hillary. The optics of 800,000 people being deported, if it happened, would bring out 2 angry "normal" Americans to the polls for every 1 in Trump's base that would be happy.

Trump's base is only 35% of the population. Unless they can convince half of the middle to vote for them, they are toast. A year of Trump, combined with seeing Dreamers deported, would send those middle folks to Dems in droves.

"If they actually cared they would have resolved it long ago."

You're right. GOP doesn't care. That's the point.

But they DO care about holding on to power. Deporting Dreamers... which 84% of the populace is against.... is the surest way for them to lose their majorities. They may be despicable assholes, but they understand electoral math.

"I have very little doubt that mass arrest and deportation will start immediately on March 5th and at this point the Dems will shrug and say “we tried but those darn republicans tricked us”"

And if that were to happen... the Dems would pick up 75+ house seats and take over the Senate. Don't think the GOP doesn't know this.

[BoneyardDem]

7. There are so many here that have failed to watch Obama work in the last 8 years

and not only failed to watch, but completely failed to understand how to negotiate and navigate the political strategies available, from a standpoint of being in the minority.

Purist bluster cannot win the day under the circumstances of not holding the House, Senate or WH...although the Trump still seems to think he's the demi gods at one of his board meetings and he can actually bluster and bully. Think on this, how much has Trump been able to achieve with a majority in the House and Senate, with all of this no compromising bluster? It just doesn't work in the big picture.

[angrychair]

8. The point is this

If we were going to take CHIP out of the bargain why not just do the 4 week extension that was already passed by the House and get CHIP off the table without making a big show and shutting down the government? That makes no sense. It looks foolish to make a big show of it to back down for 7 less days...it looks ridiculous.

[scheming daemons]

9. Let me put it another way. Please list the things the GOP "won" today.

I'll give you one:

- Government remains open for 3 more weeks.


Name another thing that happened today that was a gain for the GOP over where they were a week ago.

[angrychair]

12. They won the press and Twitter

Go look, I’ll wait.

Here I’ll help:

HuffPost:
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a661365e4b0e56300720e59?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009
“Democrats Agree To Reopen Government Without Protections For Dreamers”

CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/22/politics/donald-trump-shutdown/index.html
“I am pleased that Democrats in Congress have come to their senses and are now willing to fund our great military, border patrol, first responders and insurance for vulnerable children," Trump said in a statement that was read from the briefing room podium...”

Slate:
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/democrats-caved-on-the-government-shutdown.html
“Why Democrats Caved”

See my point?
It’s being portrayed as a win for republicans that Dems are the “Charlie Brown” to the republican’s “Lucy” pulling away the football at the last second.

[scheming daemons]

13. That lasts until Feb 8.

Winning "twitter" on January 22nd is meaningless for November.

[treestar]

14. The media is never going to not spin it that way

It would be about stubborn Democrats favoring illegal immigrants over the government, the Schumer Shutdown, etc. The media is never going to favor the Dems.

[haele]

25. The Media will come up with something else to occupy themselves with soon enough.

This is an ongoing situation. Feb 8 is the next deadline, and don't forget - we have the SOTU circus on the 30th, which may turn things around altogether when it comes to Media Hype and Pundit Opinion.

I've seen the press breathlessly complain that hostage negotiators are weak caving by agreeing to giving the terrorists a van to drive to the airport - just to get most of the hostages out. The driver hasn't even gotten out of the legislative van to turn it over yet, and they've already let the CHIP hostages go.


Haele

[former9thward]

31. The Wall

Both Schumer and Rep. Gutierrez were on the Sunday shows saying they will give Trump $20 billion for his wall. That can never be taken back.

[scheming daemons]

32. No. They did not say that.

[former9thward]

37. Well, unlike you, I will link to the video.

A Democratic congressman said President Donald Trump’s key campaign promise of building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border would be a “monumental waste of taxpayers’ money,” but Democrats should go along with it if it means Republicans would agree to grant legal status to immigrants known as "Dreamers" who came to this country illegally as children.

“Having said that, if that’s what it’s going to take in order to put 800,000 young men and women in the country ... in a safe place and put them on course to full integration in our society... I say pay it,” Gutierrez said.




http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-border-wall-monumental-waste-pay-deal-daca/story?id=52491461

[Motownman78]

46. I think that was a good strategy

Let them build their "Useless as tits on a boar wall that costs less then 6 nuclear subs" and we get to keep the Dreamers here and garner 85% of the latino vote.

[secondwind]

47. + 1,000.

[OnDoutside]

10. It shouldn't be that hard to understand,

1. The Democrats COULD have refused to accept this mini deal, but they risked turning public opinion against them when it then came out that an offer was made of a bipartisan group getting the space to come up with a DACA way forward.

2. In return for a 17 day delay, the CHIP program is now fully funded for 6 years, regardless of what happens next.

3. If Republicans do the double cross, Democrats will shut down the Government again, only this time they will have an even greater moral authority that they "tried to deal with those dastardly Republicans but they cheated America yet again".

You've jumped from today to March 5th, which is wrong. We're back here again on Feb 8th, but the boot will go in hard if the Reps do the dirt.

[flotsam]

3. We had 2 problems-CHIP and DACA

One of them is fixed for 6 years at a cost of funding the government for 18 days. 42-18=34. Wanna bet it was a cave?

[NCTraveler]

4. This is H A Goodman worthy. Truly. nt.

[angrychair]

6. How so?

You think many Dems are not going to see this as Dems giving into republicans? It’s literally what the press is already saying, it’s what Twitter is saying. We gave republicans exactly what they wanted and got nothing but a half-hearted “we’ll look into it” in exchange.

[Blue_true]

11. Our reps got CHIP out of the line of fire.

We also put government workers back to work. I doubt that republicans want to refight DACA, they have no real leverage left. My guess, a permanent and positive solution on the DACA Americans, where they stay in the only place they know and be allowed to become the citizens that some have already earned via military service.

[angrychair]

18. If that was the objective

Why would they not have taken the original bill for 4 weeks?
It’s only 7 more days that the original bill!

They took a very public stand and didn’t back down, going as far as to call the republicans bluff and let the government shut down to then vote on the a bill that was 7 less days for a promise to allow discussions of DACA but no actual promise to vote on it.

The press is eating Dems alive:

HuffPost:
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a661365e4b0e56300720e59?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009
“Democrats Agree To Reopen Government Without Protections For Dreamers”

CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/22/politics/donald-trump-shutdown/index.html
“I am pleased that Democrats in Congress have come to their senses and are now willing to fund our great military, border patrol, first responders and insurance for vulnerable children," Trump said in a statement that was read from the briefing room podium...”

Slate:
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/democrats-caved-on-the-government-shutdown.html
“Why Democrats Caved”

Twitter is much worse.

I totally get the points being made here but it’s not about what we think m, it’s about the public facing image of how it’s perceived.

See my point?

[Blue_true]

20. CHIP is off the table as a negotiating piece for republicans.

And Democrats have shown once again that they are loath to shut down the government and throw people out of work. To me it all adds up to massive pressure on republicans to help craft a permanent, positive solution for the DACA kids. Democrats shifted pressure to republicans.

[angrychair]

24. Read those press links

Go google “shutdown news” and see what is out there and the tone of it, some is legit and neutral but there is a lot more negative than neutral.

Go look at Twitter...Dems are getting burned at the stack, not by bots but by legit sources and Dem leaning organizations.

We just lost a lot of momentum today, we can still recover some of it I hope but this is going to leave a mark.

[Demsrule86]

42. If you are insinuating it will hurt our electoral chances...I think you are wrong...you have to be a

complete moron to say...well the GOP is deporting the Dreamers and the Dems didn't stop it...never mind they are in the minority...so let's elect more GOP by not voting or whatever.

[treestar]

16. There are some - maybe not many

Dems who will see the Dems as "caving" if they don't get everything we want - when in the minority in Congres too.

[angrychair]

19. Look

I get the point people are making, I’m not stupid, it’s not that I completely disagree with it but it’s not my opinion or you opinion, it’s the public perception and the press stories that will matter and while the NYT and the Hill actually take the middle on this, there is a lot of negative press out there:
Here I’ll help:

HuffPost:
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a661365e4b0e56300720e59?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009
“Democrats Agree To Reopen Government Without Protections For Dreamers”

CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/22/politics/donald-trump-shutdown/index.html
“I am pleased that Democrats in Congress have come to their senses and are now willing to fund our great military, border patrol, first responders and insurance for vulnerable children," Trump said in a statement that was read from the briefing room podium...”

Slate:
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/democrats-caved-on-the-government-shutdown.html
“Why Democrats Caved”

See my point?

Twitter is even worse. Those people matter and our turnout in November is everything to our success but taking such a public stand and conceding to every republican point 3 days later except it’s 3 weeks instead of 4 and a weak “promise” to “talk about it” is not how we do that.

[treestar]

22. I know, but I just think that if it went on long enough,

it would be about "Democrats Keeping Government Shut Down"

"Why are Democrats keeping the military from getting funded and hurting first responders and vulnerable children?"

The media is always against us - we have to get around it somehow, but sometimes do, or we'd never win.

[Demsrule86]

43. Such Dems are useless to us anyway if they base their vote on such things.

We never had the GOP anywhere. The love a government shutdown. Krugman who is one of the smartest men I know of disagrees with this meme.

[angrychair]

44. Here is my entire response

To EarlG’s OP on this issue. I also strongly insist that my hope is I’m off base and this works out in the DACA kids favor because at the end of the day that is what really matters.

Given the present outcome I would have voted in favor of the CR on Friday.

First, people keep repeating three things that just are not true:
1.

“Now CHIP is off the table”

that would have been just as true if we voted for the CR Friday. The CR period just would have been 7 days longer.

2.

McConnell promised a vote

McConnell did no such thing, he promised to allow debate but never said he would allow a vote on anything.

3.

“This was the best possible outcome”

This created animosity where there wasn’t any. We had the wind in our sails and many felt emboldened by the show of resolution in the face of the racist and xenophobic majority. Now, many DACA-aligned and even liberal groups do not see this as some masterful stroke but as a slap in the face. We got the government going again but we took a not insignificant political hit for it. I encourage everyone to google “shutdown news” while some is neutral, most is not. Twitter is all but burning us alive. Yea, maybe it won’t matter by November but a lot of that now depends on who blinks as the March deadline approaches.

I believe we overcommitted and if we do not get what we want by Feb 8th does any of us actually think there is any political stomach for two shutdowns in 4 weeks in an election year?
I completely expect the republicans to give us a “take it leave it” bill that gives DACA kids a pathway to citizenship but with stomach-churning concessions that all but dare Democrats to vote against it. I truly hope I’m wrong.

[Vinca]

15. The extension is 3 weeks and the vote is to happen within that period.

If we don't have the numbers and lose the vote, that scenario might happen, but supposedly there is known to be a majority from both parties willing to vote in favor of DACA. McConnell promised a vote. What the hell else can Democrats do exactly? Keeping the government closed only makes more people more pissed at Democrats.

[angrychair]

21. No, McConnell did NOT promise a vote

He promised to allow debate on the floor about it but made no promise for an actual vote.

We took a very public and praised stand of principle and then rolled back on it 3 days later for 7 less days and a “promise” to “ talk about it”. Talk is not going to prevent more people from being deported and for mass deportations in March.

[zipplewrath]

26. Regular Order

He agreed to regular order. Once it is in debate, I believe that a vote can be called for, and presuming they get the necessary support, it can go to a vote. Of course any set of senators could not vote for cloture. Then we're into filibuster territory. Also, they can always put some "poison pill" in the thing (although I don't think the GOP has the votes to force such a thing).

[atreides1]

29. What McConnell agreed to...

...doesn't apply to Ryan or the House, and Ryan has his pack of rabid fanatics, to deal with!!!

[zipplewrath]

30. I agree

Schumer's agreement only works in the Senate.

[Vinca]

28. If a vote doesn't happen then we shut down the government again.

I don't think Democrats lost a thing in this deal given we're in the minority and can't wave a magic wand over Republican legislators and a batshit crazy president. 6 years of CHIP is a BFD. More than I would have expected actually.

[angrychair]

33. 6 year CHIP has been the deal for months

We do not have the political capital for 2 shutdowns in a month meaning we either shutdown anyway and accept the political consequences or take whatever deal republicans offer and whatever political fallout comes with it.

CHIP has been sat on for months by republicans and was tied to the CR as leverage to dare Dems to vote against it.

[Vinca]

34. So you'd rather it ran out in the interim and kids suffer?

I would love to know your plan for how Democrats, who are in the minority, pass DACA as a result of continuing a shutdown forever. The GOP wasn't bothered by the shutdown, they were enjoying it. Even Pence got into the act overseas trashing Dems in front of military people. Please . . . tell me how Democrats would have gotten a DACA deal by holding fast for months on end.

[angrychair]

36. No, point is

Either do it or not, don’t half-ass it.

Don’t take a very public and unequivocal stand and appear to stick to your guns to the point of a shutdown and then back off 3 days later for 7 less days and a “promise” to talk about DACA.

It opens us up to accusations of “weakness” and capitulation.

Google “shutdown news” or spend 10 mins on Twitter, it’s ugly...

[Vinca]

38. But numbers are numbers. Either you have them or you don't.

[Demsrule86]

41. The got what they could.

[LanternWaste]

17. Hoping your narrative sticks to the wall, eh?

Hoping your narrative sticks to the wall, eh?

Well, the prophets of myopia are easily distracted.



Banana nut-meg toe-jam!!!
(did it work?)

[angrychair]

23. Fail to understand your point.... nt

[Kirk Lover]

27. If McConnell doesn't make good can't we just shut er down again and this time it's urgent and

cannot wait and yes we'll hold everything up for DACA....isn't that the game plan?

[angrychair]

35. In my opinion, no

That political capital has been spent. I doubt there is enough support for a 2nd shutdown in a month...they could still do but there will be a political cost...likely republicans will give them a “take it or leave it” shit bill and dare them to shutdown the government again...meaning no republican majority is going to give DACA a path to citizenship without some stomach churning concessions on immigration or other issues. I am still of the opinion that they will do nothing and not budge an inch because of their base and it’s an election year...republicans are no longer sane or rational and give no shits...for god’s sake they nominated a pedophile to run for Senate.

[lpbk2713]

39. There's no bright side to this, but maybe ...

just maybe, this will motivate others of Latino origins to register and vote. I know Puerto Ricans moving to Florida and other states will show their disgust for Trump at the polls.

[Demsrule86]

40. Blame the GOP who have all the power and those who elected them...including some who call themselves

progressives. Democrats don' have the power to stop the Gop. They did what they could. Maybe something will be done... I hope so. This really is up to the GOP.

[Cha]

45. Leave it to Krugman to counter with Reality..

Link to tweet

[angrychair]

48. I replied to him as well

“Despise that “off the table” meme Paul. That CR on Friday had the same 6-year CHIP deal. That old CR period just would have been 7 days longer. We should have kept our powder dry until the expiration of this CR and then used that leverage once CHIP was in the bag.”

[Cha]

49. I'm going to go with Paul Krugman

and the others who are pointing out this was a good deal..

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[mountain grammy]

50. Yeah, me too. pretty conflicted about it

because I expect Republicans to pull their usual lying bullshit. That said, I think we come out winners. I'm so relieved that CHIP is saved. I have friends with sick kids and grandkids who depend on it. We must get active for DACA. I'm calling out my Republican senator every single day to remind him..

[Cha]

52. Mahalo for doing that, mountain grammy!

[RandySF]

51. We're still taking the House.