If Mubarak falls, is it a good thing?

[AngryAmish]

I don't know. And you don't know. Nobody does - it is the nature of the future to be unknown.

What if Mubarak goes into exile, never to be seen again. Does the Muslim Brotherhood take over? If they do, is that good or bad? Will they realize that their revolutionary fervor gets toned down by having to pick up the garbage? Will Egyptians in short order determine that being ruled by a bunch of fundys is no fun and tell them to fuck off? What if there is widespread chaos, Suez Canal is closed and eventually some Khmer Rouge types take over, declare Year zero and decide that everyone has to leave Cairo?


I think Mubarak is a thug and should go. But nobody knows if this is good or bad. We'll see.

[NotThisTime]

1. The Muslim Brotherhood = confirmed terrorists... That isn't a group I'd want in power

[JCMach1]

The Brotherhood isn't driving this...

[dmallind]

18. Doesn't mean they cannot step into a power vaccuum.

Alaric may have sacked Rome, but he and his tribes didn't take over the empire (such as it was).

[Nuclear Unicorn]

2. Depends on who replaces him. n/t

[SidDithers]

9. Yup...

:thumbsup:

Sid

[xchrom]

3. islamists in egypt are not the powerful bogeyman you may think.

the protests are unalligned -- what they want are uncorrupted elections.

the young don't live in the same ideological driven world we were raised -- that seems to be true here as well as abroad.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

10. Tell that to Sadat.

if they are a minimal force it will be all the easier to marginalize them.

So what harm is there is making noises they would not be recognized as a legitmate player?

[xchrom]

22. or itzak rabin, huh? nt

[LiberalLoner]

12. This. I lived in Egypt for a year, discovered they really are a very moderate people mostly. n/t

[qazplm]

17. could be very true

but it would not be the first time a radical minority asserted its will over a more moderate majority.

We will just have to wait and see and hope for the best.

I'm currently attending legal training with an Egyptian attorney/officer, so I feel a little for him being here with his wife and kids over there.

[LiberalLoner]

31. Oh, my goodness. I feel bad for him too - phones, internet are down...yikes. n/t

[dmallind]

20. As are a majority of Saudis and Iranians. Obssessive people are better at grabbing power. nt

[AngryAmish]

21. Maybe

I have to say when you go to a foreign country you meet people who are more likely to know foreigners. Richer, more educated and not total fundy nutters.
Plus if you are female you are not likely to meet many fundy men.


(and I am making huge assumptions about you that may be totally unfair - for all I know you personally spent a lot of time with everyone from diplomats to street sweepers. I am not trying to cause offense.))

[LiberalLoner]

30. Oh, no, your assumptions are fair and correct. You are right, I probably did

meet only a select group of people - people who were working with us in the MFO, etc. I was just giving my opinion was all...I figured, I lived there for a year, and just wanted to weigh in on the discussion...

Heck, fundies of all types piss me off. :)

Hey, did I ever tell you my ancestors were Amish on my Mom's side? My Great-Grandmother left the Amish, but in our family we had people all the way back to the Swiss Anabaptists (before there were Amish) and I'm told we have a couple of distant relatives/ancestors in the book of martyrs.

[gratuitous]

4. One thing's for sure

The United States has done a piss-poor job of building relationships in this region in the last 30 years, despite horrendous occurence after horrendous occurrence. We have very little respect, not a lot of prestige, and next to no credibility to help shape events to our liking.

If one strong man is simply replaced by another strong man, it could be better, then get worse. It could be worse from the get-go, and get even worse from there. It could be calamitously worse and lead to more unrest and instability.

[bif]

5. I heard on NPR this morning

That the Muslim Brotherhood, aren't leading the protests. That's not to say they aren't participating.

[hlthe2b]

6. Not necessarily... It is natural to hope the people will prevail...

but if they prevail, this may well turn out very very bad for them, for the Region--and for us.

[TreasonousBastard]

7. The army and the civil service run the place, and...

they aren't at all thrilled with radical Islam.

[TBF]

8. Solidarity with the people of Egypt - it should be their decision. nt

[BOG PERSON]

11. not for the US and israel it isn't

[Codeine]

13. The Islamists will be taking over.

That's never - ever - a good development.

[global1]

14. I Keep Hearing Over At CNN That They Say If Mubarak Falls That They Fear Al Quida Will Take Over

where are they picking this up from or is it just a 'fear factor' that they are throwing out to the American people to worry us and keep us in fear? Seems to me that saying that Al Quida will be taking over Egypt is something that we'd hear from BushCo.

[SoCalDem]

24. and dragging pallets of their wmds with them., I presume. n/t

[robdogbucky]

15. Am watching/listening to live Al Jazeera reporting

Currently the curfew is being ignored, the army has been called in, the police have been pulled out. The National Democratic Party (in control for the last 30 years) headquarters building set on fire. Other explosions are taking place, new gunshots are heard along with the din of the angry protestors. Other government buildings are reported being burned. The police are reported to be defecting to the side of the demonstrators. They were opining that this "party," just won 95% of the vote in questionable elections a couple of months ago. The people know they were screwed, it is not religious in its nature, it is basic civil rights demanded by the people. You know like honest elections.

I am not worried about what happens after Mubarek. His karma is being delivered and so is ours for the support of this brutal dictator and others in the regions. Look at South America when the oppressors are cast aside.

Mubarek is still scheduled to speak and they have said so for the last half hour, but nothing yet.

The official word from the US is so hypocritical and predictable at this point. Definite panic in Foggy Bottom.



Hands off my Social Security!
Hands off Latin America!



Dear SOS Clinton and President Obama:


Thanks for nothing

The People of Egypt




rdb

[Uncle Joe]

16. I believe soft power is far more likely to bring about our desired result than any

support for thug leaders.

The only true long term path to success for the U.S. is to support the will of the Egyptian People in electing their own leaders.

They may pick people we don't care for but if we continue to support autocrats; just because they kiss up to us while abusing their own people then we will always be the world's antagonist; and that is a dead end street.

Thanks for the thread, AngryAmish.

[FLPanhandle]

19. Any move towards a Theocracy would be worse than Mubarak

There will be a power vacuum soon. Whoever fills it first will set the direction. I'd be very nervous if I lived in Egypt.

[SoCalDem]

23. It just is what it is right now.

What it becomes later, will depend on how the rest of the world reacts, once the dust settles.

[zazen]

25. can George Mitchell broker deal between Al Baradei & Mubarak?

To agree to some level of reform?

[MilesColtrane]

26. Once there is rioting in the streets, I think that ship has sailed.

[damntexdem]

27. If democracy triumphs, is it a good thing?

The unknown is whether democracy WILL triumph if Mubarak falls; but what is clear is that it CANNOT triumph if Mubarak does not fall.

[blindpig]

28. One thing for sure, it will be a blow against the Empire.

He's been nothing but a US tool since day one.

[Fuzz]

29. Never a good thing to put your faith and foreign policy in a person, ever.

Stick with your principles and you will find it hard to find yourself, as a country, in this position. Look at all the dictators this country has supported over the years that have lead to serious problems. Saddam, the Shah, etc.