Source:
Public Policy PollingAfter trailing by as much as 13 points earlier this year, Shelley Berkley has moved into a tie with Dean Heller in the Nevada Senate race at 45%.
On PPP's last poll, in late July, Heller had led 46-43. The main thing that's happened since then is Berkley has consolidated the Democratic vote. Previously she was getting just 75% of the vote from within her own party, but that's now up to 82%, pretty comparable to Heller's 83% of the Republican vote. On all 3 previous PPP surveys of the race this year, all of which Heller had held the lead on, he was getting a much larger share of the GOP vote than Berkley was getting of the Democratic vote. With that gap erased, so is his lead.
When you dig deeper into the numbers on this poll you really see the makings of a race that could be a toss up all the way through next November. Heller's approval rating is a 39/35 spread. Berkley's favorability rating is a 38/35 spread. In addition to both candidates getting nearly identical shares of the vote from their parties, independents split nearly evenly as well with Heller holding a 39-37 advantage. Berkley has a 52-38 advantage with women. Heller has a 52-38 advantage with men.
This is a race like the ones in Virginia and Montana that starts out as a toss up and seems like it probably won't see a ton of movement over the next year- most voters have already chosen a side and the candidates will be fighting it out for a relatively small pool of persuadable voters. It seems likely that if Obama wins reelection he'll bring the Democratic Senate candidates in these states along with him, and if he doesn't, he'll probably bring them down with him as well.
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/tie-in-nevada.html
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