TD 12 is building quickly and is following the same

[alfredo]

path as Irene. It's still a long way off, so things can change dramatically. Still I would keep an eye peeled for this storm.

There is no real way to predict, and no reason to worry at this stage. There are so many factors that conspire against hurricanes. So keep an eye out starting next week. Hopefully this will be a "fish storm."


This map will update as conditions change.

[Uben]

1. Hopefully it will track into the gulf.....

...and give Texas some needed rain!

[thewiseguy]

2. This one will probably be a big and catastrophic storm at landfall

I would not wish it to hit Texas just yet.

[LisaL]

3. Are you freaking kidding?

Do you know what the water temperatures are in the Gulf?
Get a clue.

[alfredo]

5. We really don't need another hurricane.

[Uben]

9. I've got a clue.....

....it's just a tropical depression at this point. We desperately need rain, and it usually takes a tropical storm of some type to bust a drought of this magnitude. I'm not wishing a hurricane on anyone, but there are folks suffering immensely right now due to a lack of rain. Animals are dropping dead, ranchers have no water or hay for their cattle, and fields are tinder dry just waiting for a spark.

[LisaL]

12. And a massively destructive hurricane is just a thing to help that out.

Got it. What is going to happen if a hurricane gets into Gulf at these temperatures?

[Uben]

19. Yeah, except it's not a hurricane......

...and hopefully it will not develop into one. Jeebus!

[LisaL]

21. They don't start off as hurricanes right of the bat.

Hello?

[Uben]

29. Thanks for making my point

Hello?

[Occulus]

33. They don't all become hurricanes as they track west.

Hello?

Caustic much?

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. Actually as destructive as one would be

they do need the water...

That is a disaster that is barely getting covered.

[kentauros]

13. The big problem with wanting a full-blown hurricane to hit us

is that on the coast, we'll be destroyed just to get more rain to the interior.

No, what we really need is for one of those tropical waves to form just to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula and gain no more than Cat-1 strength. This current storm, TD-12, would be of the catastrophic variety were it to track due west right now. Better that it keeps going on its current track, which may very well make it loop north soon and stay out in the Atlantic, away from everyone :)

[Strelnikov_]

16. Yep. The Gulf right now is like a 'Cane all-you-can-eat buffet

No loop current eddy hot-spot . . . cause it's all hot.

Only plus is the dry air in the northern half may knock the monster down a bit before landfall.

[alfredo]

4. As long as it weakens like Irene.

[GreenPartyVoter]

7. Hopefully Texas can get some rain, but it would be better if

it wasn't from a monster hurricane.

[LisaL]

8. Yes, because Katrina and Ike just weren't destructive enough.

[GreenPartyVoter]

25. Hence the reason why I said, "it would be better if it wasn't from some monster hurricane."

:shrug:

[LisaL]

26. What was it originally before editing?

[GreenPartyVoter]

28. Basically just the first part. I edited to add the disclaimer that it would not be

good to get it from a monster storm.

My apologies if you were responding to the pre-edit post. :hi:

[Shagbark Hickory]

24. LOL. Yeah. That's *just* what TX needs now.

:rofl:

[TexasProgresive]

6. Not a prediction but the high pressure ridge that has been baking Texas

is forecasted to move east. This may turn a future hurricane eastward out into the Atlantic or if the ridge moves quickly enough could send the storm into Florida or the Gulf.

[Scurrilous]

10. Oh, boy.

:o

[Purveyor]

11. Sun-Sentinel: TD 12 Forms In Atlantic; Likely To Become Tropical Storm Katia Today

10:54 a.m. EDT, August 29, 2011

Tropical Depression 12 emerged in the far eastern Atlantic on Monday morning, and it's already forecast to strengthen into a strong hurricane within the next week.

More immediately, the system likely will grow into Tropical Storm Katia later today.

For now, the system is forecast to aim generally toward the Lesser Antilles. Some models hint that it might turn north out to sea without approaching the U.S. coast. However, it's too early to put faith in that prediction.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/storm-center-blog/sfl-tropical-depression-12-forms-20110829,0,3048095.story

[SoCalDem]

14. I'm more worried about the other two

That one sits kind of high and looks like it will veer north

the other two look sneaky to me..they look like they could get into the gulf

[Broderick]

15. This could be the storm of the century

Hurry up and create panic weather channel! I wonder what other legislation needs to be signed under the "cloak of crisis". Pipeline - CHECK. What's next?

[FLPanhandle]

17. The media is already looking in their Thesaurus for Armageddon

Since they used that one for Irene.

[Broderick]

18. LMAO --- Touche!

[kestrel91316]

20. Go ahead and ignore the MEDIA HYPE(TM), people. The earth has

too many humans, anyway.

[LisaL]

22. It's all well and good but what if you are one of those humans?

[GreenPartyVoter]

23. I pay attention to what FEMA and the gov't are saying and doing. I'm not

against the media making the point that a dangerous storm is on the way, I simply am frustrated with the way they do it, and I still think it could lead to people shrugging them off in a "crying wolf" scenario. I am very worried about that and the potential casualties that could be caused by it.

[alfredo]

32. At the time they sent out the warnings, Irene was a Cat 3.

They knew it could weaken, but that "could" was the doubt they had about the effect a front heading across the US. The "could" became a "will" and Irene weakened to a Cat 1.

[Leopolds Ghost]

41. Actually I think it was a Tropical Storm when it hit land in Jersey.

It never had sustained winds over 80 mph after it hit the coast.

[alfredo]

43. It was one of those prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. It appears

Vermont got the worst.

[kestrel91316]

34. People should be listening to that government agencies say about preparing

and consider what the MEDIA says to be infotainment.

[GreenPartyVoter]

37. That's where I am at these days.

[malaise]

27. Different tracks

TD 12 is above both the Windwards and Leewards. Irene entered the Caribbean sea, went through the northern Windwards into Leewards and right through Puerto Rico.
Unless this one turns South and West she will probably miss the Caribbean sea, turn north, threaten Bermuda and head out into the North East Atlantic

[LibertyLover]

30. What happened to TS 11, Jose?

I thought it too was taking a similar track to Irene.

[alfredo]

31. Like I said in the OP, there are a lot of factors that

conspires against a hurricane. Weather patterns over the US can steer the storm away. Play the game Paper toss to get an idea. We won't know for sure for another week or so if this storm will be a threat to the US mainland. My whole reason for posting was to have people pay attention to what is forming in the Atlantic basin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdAzdBeqPmY

Jose was never really a threat. It just meandered around in the Atlantic.

[RebelOne]

35. According to our local weather news channel here

in Georgia, Jose is nothing to worry about. It is not going to hit the U.S. At least, that is what I heard this morning.

[alfredo]

40. RIP Jose.

[Lex]

36. GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda and Canada . . .

"Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda and Canada might be the only land area threatened by TD 12, but it is too early to be confident of this."

From Dr. Jeff Masters' page: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/

still early days

[alfredo]

38. Yeah, you can see a slight jog to the north.

[quaker bill]

42. Too far north too early in the track

Unless guidance shifts to the south and west of this track, it is unlikely this one will be much of a threat.

[alfredo]

44. That's what I was thinking. Good news for Texas.

WU is reporting that the high that has lingered over Texas is moving east, allowing moist air from the gulf to move in.