A look at the numbers behind the Wisconsin recalls

[Scuba]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/127946328.html



..snip..


Nine Democratic candidates: 244,978 votes

Nine Republican candidates: 238,527 votes

Close to 41% of the voting-age adults across these nine districts turned out to vote in the recalls. That is about six points higher than the turnout in these districts for the state Supreme Court race in April and about seven points lower than the turnout in these districts for governor in last fall’s mid-terms.

These contests were fought on mostly GOP-friendly turf. The nine districts combined (six held by Republicans, three by Democrats) gave Republican Scott Walker 56% of the two-party vote in 2010, about three points higher than his statewide total, reflecting their overall GOP tilt. Only one of the nine was more Democratic than the state as whole based on the last governor’s race (the 32nd district held until last week by Republican Dan Kapanke).

Overall, the GOP vote share in these nine districts was about seven percentage points lower in the recalls than it was for governor last fall. The Republican drop-off from Walker’s 2010 vote is probably more meaningful in the case of the six GOP-held Senate seats, since those contests more closely resembled a referendum on the governor and his agenda than did the three races featuring Democratic incumbents. In those six races, the GOP Senate incumbents got a combined 52% of the two-party vote, roughly four points lower than Walker’s performance in those same districts last year.

(see link for charts)

This breakdown shows that Republican support more or less “held” in three districts, in the Milwaukee (Darling), Twin Cities (Harsdorf) and Green Bay (Cowles) metropolitan areas. It eroded significantly in the other three seats. These numbers reaffirm that the key race in the broader recall war was in the 14th district, where the GOP erosion from Walker’s 2011 numbers shows that Democrats had a real opportunity there to pick up the third seat they needed to win control of the state Senate but fell a little more than 2,000 votes short.

..end..



(emphasis mine)



Bottom line: Two Senate seats flipped from Red to Blue, narrowing the R majority to a single seat. This gives the citizens of Wisconsin a fighting chance to hold the line on Walker's policies. R's lost support in all nine districts (compared to Nov 2010).

Now to work on recalling Walker. The big question is "when?" January, 2012 is the earliest, but waiting for the November general election might be wise.

[Oceansaway]

1. recalling Walker...woooohooo..n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. From what I heard, don't ask for link...

they will try at the General Election... among other things saves a little money.

[PeaceNikki]

7. DPW chair, Mike Tate, made this statement a few weeks ago.

He's since changed his tune to "as soon as possible", but it's grassroots organizations who are running this show and will decide. DPW will back them in any and every way possible - whenever they decide to pull the trigger. I am sure they are crunching numbers, running polls, and building strategy even as I type.

I do see the benefit of waiting for the GE when Democratic turnout will be much better.

Here are some other interesting numbers compiled by our committee - specific to District 8 (which we lost)

In Milwaukee County, 59.3% of Wasserman's '08 voters turned out for Pasch, 67.9% of Darling's voters returned (an 8.6% difference.)
In liberal, mostly white Shorewood, 73.9% of '08 Dems turned out vs 70.3% of GOP '08 voters - ie, opposite the result of the county as a whole. It's a good indication that the 'Left' reengaged in this fight - and the message resonated with independent voters.
In Waukesha County, 69.4% of Wasserman's '08 voters turned out for Pasch, 78.4% of Darling's '08 voters returned (a 9 point difference).
In Washington County, 61% of Wasserman's '08 voters turned out for Pasch, 77.1% of Darling's '08 returned (a 16.1% difference)!
In Ozaukee County, 67.6% of Wasserman's '08 voters turned out for Pasch, 84.1% of Darling's voters '08 returned (a 16.5% difference)!

It appears that the GOP did a better job getting out their base almost everywhere in Senate District 8. And Waukesha County, comparatively speaking, wasn't the biggest problem in SD8.

It boils down to how we reach the independents who voted for Obama (and perhaps Wasserman) in the last election - but didn't feel engaged or invested enough in this contest to vote for Pasch? I ...suspect that that's the 9% we're missing in Waukesha.

In Shorewood, for example, the independents lean left - and voted for Pasch. Out here in Waukesha (and even more so in Ozaukee and Washington counties), the independents lean right. Sandy's campaign, or the issues at hand, didn't get them to the polls. Or pushed them to support Darling.

So, if we go for a special election, the key we need to focus on independents and those missing Democrats.

[jsamuel]

9. Having a good canditate (no offense to Pasch) can be a BIG deal.

If I remember correctly this was Pasch's first try at any public office. She did a great job getting anywhere near Darling. However, having a big name on your side of the ticket can be a very important to motivate those Democrats and Independents.

[PeaceNikki]

10. LOL, no. She's in the Assembly.

She's won twice (handily). She's an amazing politician and person, well-liked in her district.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/w3asp/contact/legislatorpages.aspx?house=Assembly&district=22&display=bio

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Sandy_Pasch

[jsamuel]

17. oh, sorry. I listened to some of the Dem candidates on the radio and one of them said this was their

first time running for public office (lady). I thought it was her, but apparently not.

[leveymg]

3. Thanks. Your analysis was clear and makes good sense on its face,

as well as in its recommendation for action. Altogether, very hopeful, something we could all use an injection of.

[hayrow]

4. These numbers tell me....

that Walker is toast next year, IF....City of Milwaukee Democrats get out and vote. A Walker recall is a sure thing, and no amount of Koch money will save him if Milwaukee Democrats get to the polls. We need to make sure that there are enough voting machines and poll workers in the City of Milwaukee so there won't be long lines....And absentee ballots are distributed with precise information on how to get them completed and get them in on time.

[Scuba]

5. Yep, and I'll throw Dane County into the mix. Break even in the rest of the State (save Waukesha)..

...and kick butt in Milwaukee and Madison.

[PeaceNikki]

12. Ozaukee is more red than Waukesha.

I know we catch a lot of heat here, but Ozaukee and Washington are blood red, too.

[Scuba]

15. I know, I live in Grothman's district

[PeaceNikki]

16. eeek.

Sorry! :(

He's an evil bastard.

[PeaceNikki]

6. Make no mistake, getting ~ 700k signatures in 60 days will be a TALL order.

I think we're organized and energized enough to do it, but it will be a ton of very hard work.

[HereSince1628]

8. We need to keep reminding people, I hope the recall

supporters air some 'information' ads to do just that in the fall.

[Scuba]

11. Any idea how many people have signed pledges to sign recall petitions?

[PeaceNikki]

13. About 200k with UnitedWisconsin

http://www.unitedwisconsin.com/

It's a start.

[Scuba]

14. Thanks Nikki