Three Bubbles that have not burst yet

[Taverner]

1 - Housing Bubble. Yes, it popped, but prices still never dropped to reasonable levels. Considering you still have to pay $1million for a small home in SF, expect the 'second shoe' to drop and expect this bubble to burst.

2 - The Social Media Bubble. That would be Farmville, Facebook, etc... They've been making some good money, but still it's a bubble and their shares are grossly overpriced. All it will take is one to post two quarters of negative numbers, and investors will start pulling back their cash.

3 - The Civil Service 'bubble' This isn't really a bubble, but a to be expected drop in the eonomy that is the results of the current budget. Sneer all you want, but when these jobs go away, so do their ability to buy things, pay rent, etc. Which will then cycle back to #1.

[Mojambo]

1. We need to offer virtual subsidies for Farmville. n/t

[Blue Meany]

2. I tend to think there is a "college bubble" as well, since people

sometimes respond to recessions by retraining or getting further education. But these days they come out of college saddled with debt that will likely eat away any financial benefits from their education for a long time.

[Fearless]

26. Tried that myself back in 07... now I have a huge bill and no job because I'm "overqualified".

[formercia]

32. "Saddled with Debt."

...and a degree that likely won't get them a job at Burger King.

Most 'University Degrees' are a joke.

[jtown1123]

3. A better Third would be Student Loans

[ProdigalJunkMail]

4. couple of points

Number 1 is totally regional. House prices have plummeted in some areas to ridiculous lows.

Number 2 is sub sector small. IF it pops in the near term, the money will go to another venture.

Number 3 it needs to pop. Government is HIGHLY bloated in some areas. Government was never meant to be a jobs program.

sP

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ProdigalJunkMail]

16. ah, so the parts of gov't you don't LIKE aren't jobs programs?

is that it? the gov't is massively larger today than at just about any point in history...that should be a clue for you. oh, and your 80's era mainframes...the DOT may be using them, but the gov't buys more tech that ANY COMPANY IN THE USA.

and fuck off with comparing me to grover norquist. what a myopic little world you have...

[Taverner]

18. "The Fed Govt is not a Jobs program!"

"Why should I have to care for every hard luck harry?"

"Why should I pay for public schools? I don't have any kids!"

"Get off my lawn!"

And so on and so on...

[ProdigalJunkMail]

19. wow...none of those are even CLOSE to the gov't being a jobs program

nice job of deflecting though...

sP

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ProdigalJunkMail]

27. wow...nice implication

you're a master...

sP

[glowing]

15. In these times where the rich and cash full corporations are sitting on their money,

the correct thing would be to raise their taxes and cut off their loopholes and to stop the ridiculous "free trade" bs which is offshoring our jobs and money. On the otherside of the coin, it is up to the govt, which can run debts, to initiate jobs and programs. Shutting down NASA's doors is rather ridiculous. Aren't the politicians always stating the need for scientists, mathmaticians, and engineers. Now, where do these really smart peoe go? Off to work building bombs, foreign countries, or work at Disney World?

It's obvious we need new infrastructure. Instead of dicking around with these assist puke gov's, initiate a federal take over of land and start building. Start initiating green energy and jobs. Support the small family farmer (we really need to have a revival of younger generations taking over smaller, more Eco-friendly farming techniques). There are a ton of ideas to build America in a way that's fitting for modern times, politicians seem to ignore this initiative these days for an over bloated MIC.

The reality is that is better for the govt to pay people to work and produce something, rather than have a populace sit around collecting unemployment which is never really enough to live off of and most of it goes into paying for COBRA ins. It's much better to pay a living salary, with benefits, and the perks because then those people still pay their mortgage. Those people still go on vacation. Thise people will buy a new car and clothes and washing machines. This in turn keeps unemployment low. Employers have to compete for good hires. The perks are better. And because of the new infrastructure and technologies needed for these programs, private business will step into the foray in order to make a profit... Then slowly, the govt can release it's bloated pay roll as the private sector begins to hire again.

[yodermon]

31. lol WPA wtf

[Brickbat]

5. Higher education is overdue for one.

[Supersedeas]

29. And may come in the form of many middle income students not being able to afford

tuition which will result in more layoffs in Academia--choking out the liberals in academia may be the next target of massive cuts and states feel the pinch to raise tuition in order for universities to maintain their overhead.

[Speck Tater]

6. Re: civil service bubble, the post office is already about to close 3700 local post offices. nt

[Historic NY]

8. I had a talk with my cousin on that he is a USPS employee yesterday...

they want to close my PO we also have two of them in our hamlets ...... its would seem more sensible to close the little ones. The general idea is to close out those in buildings that they don't own. Funny thing is the US Government owned the entire plaza when the large one is from the Pizza Connection drug case...they got rid of it. They want to downsize to where they can fit in a mall or supermarket. He did say they are not hiring FT employees only what are called casuals they work FT but recieve no benefits. They won't get an opening either the PO will just hire more of the same like GM's tier 2 employees. Nothing is in stone mostly because the PO is required to pony up the full cost of medical benefits right off the top.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/broke-u-s-postal-service-suspends-retirement-contributions/

[LostInAnomie]

7. Gold

[nbsmom]

10. Amen to that

Sorry but for the life of me I can't figure out why gold seems to be the 21st century equivalent of putting your $$$ in a coffee can (or under your mattress.) Is it because no currency has emerged as the successor to the U.S. $$? Or is it because people think that there will be some sort of financial clearinghouse that will be set up to process gold and other precious metals? I'm not arguing that gold hasn't made money since 2000....just wondering how the gold scenario is supposed to play out if we have a worldwide financial meltdown (no pun intended)?

[roomfullofmirrors]

25. Owning gold is like owning an insurance policy against inflation and economic disasters.

I had my money in a money market and in CDs that were all earning 3-4% back in 2008. Then the government started pumping cheap money into the financial system and banks didn't need my money anymore so they stopped offering competitive interest rates. So I had to look for a new investment vehicle. Having already lost tens of thousands of dollars on the Dow Jones, I was loathe to play that game anymore. Gold (and silver)offered me security against my expectations of future inflation as well as protection against a highly volatile US stock market and macroeconomy that both seemed destined for collapse due to their weak underlying fundamentals. That was back when gold was $950/oz and silver was $15-$18/oz. Will the gold bubble bust? No, because it isn't gold that is in a bubble, it's the fiat currency that we use to buy gold that is bubbled up. Gold is just a reflection of that bubble.

[bvar22]

37. Gold is a manipulated market.

Do you realize that several Middle Eastern Counties are holding vast hordes of Bullion that they can dump on the Gold Market anytime they feel like finishing off The Great Satan, or weeding out all the light weight suckers?

I find gold difficult to chew,
and it doesn't taste very good.

[roomfullofmirrors]

38. Oh noes, I better sell off all my metals now. Thanks for the warning.

:eyes:

[bvar22]

39. Gold IS a manipulated market,

and "they" WILL weed out the Light-Weights when the time comes.
The Light Weights WILL be the last to know when the Sell Off starts,
and WILL be the ones left Holding the Bag.

OTOH: Gold coins and chains WERE a good medium of exchange for food, water, and ammunition during the Economic Meltdown in Argentina, 2000.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf1.html

My wife & I thought about buying Gold Coins,
but decided to buy DIRT instead.
We would rather have a sustainable and renewable supply of good food and clean water.

Good Luck to you and your gold.

[roomfullofmirrors]

41. The big fish have a hand in manipulating every market We're all mindful of that but not scared of it

gold prices will fluctuate but the trend will remain in the up direction so long as the fundamentals dragging down the macroeconomy remain as they are. There's just nothing on the horizon that suggests that those fundamentals are going to improve, quite the opposite.

[bvar22]

42. There is EVERYTHING to suggest a round of Profit Taking by the Big Boys.

Are YOU willing to ride out a Sell Off that drops the price to about $300/oz?

The Big Boys are.
In fact, they will PROVOKE one,
and sell off early at over $1000/oz.
and Buy Back IN at $300/Oz after all the suckers are cleared out.
(SEE: Florida Retirement Real Estate)

Gold is currently at a Hyper Inflated Price,
and RIPE for Profit Taking.

[ret5hd]

30. metals are not a method to MAKE money...

they are a method to transfer "wealth" from one side of a crises to the other side of the crises.

[Taverner]

11. THANKS! I forgot that one!

And yes, it's #4

[Snoutport]

9. food prices

[Taverner]

14. Damn, I wish...

But that shows signs of rising with no end in sight.

It's all about the transport, and the rising prices of oil. As we run out, it goes up.

[NickB79]

36. For food prices to drop, we need to see two things

A return to global weather patterns that make it easier to raise bumper crops, and a drop in demand for foodstuffs. Neither of these are going to happen, thanks to global warming and a booming global population. The rapid increase in disposable income in countries like China and India magnifies this by demanding more "rich" foods, such as meat and dairy, instead of the more plentiful and cheaper to produce rice, vegetables, grains and legumes that were historically eaten when money was tight.

The only plausible way we'll see a substantial drop in food prices in the near future is if we enter another Great Depression that also hurts Asia's economic growth. Remove the disposable income, and people eat lower on the food chain. Eat lower on the food chain, and you effectively increase the food supply because it isn't being wasted being fed to livestock.

[readmoreoften]

13. #1 The Student Loan Bubble.

No one can get jobs and the jobs that exist don't pay enough to repay the government (even the gov't jobs). Student. Loan. Bubble.

[drokhole]

24. Yep. Moody's report on student lending industry...

http://image.exct.net/lib/fefb127575640d/m/2/Student+Lendings+Failing+Grade.pdf
Gawker article on the matter

[TBF]

17. You forgot commercial real estate -

that hasn't burst yet either, but it will.

[TransitJohn]

20. I'm with you, I think that is the real biggie n/t

eom

[roomfullofmirrors]

22. you are forgetting about the biggest bubble of all, the human population growth bubble

Exponential growth curve, meet wall of limited resource availability. Wall of limited resource availability, meet exponential growth curve.

[Taverner]

40. Well yeah, that one goes without saying

Although maybe that's the problem...

[begin_within]

23. And this one

[NickB79]

34. If that bubble ever burst, I would surely enter a great depression

[Lucky Luciano]

28. Farmland has gotten bubbly due to high food prices. nt

[KoKo]

33. Muni Bonds....Some states will have to default. There's no money to bail them out

that can be allocated by this Congress.

[ozone_man]

35. And the biggest bubble of all,

the debt bubble. It started to pop in 2008, but has since re-inflated. When this finally implodes, we enter full blown depression.

[Ilsa]

43. I tend to agree with you. It isn't just about the debt, but

also about the banisters repeating the last decade of financial fraud, then threatening to blow up the world economy if we don't bail them out again. It'll be much, much worse the next time they do it. And they will, unless we re-regulate and force divestiture.

[ozone_man]

44. Of course there is more.

But, the leveraged debt is still unwinding in the real estate market and there is no end in sight. The 2000's was spent using houses as ATMs, so a lot of those houses are underwater. The end of the home equity ATM, or worse, default. Add in the complex, unregulated derivatives structure, off-shoring of jobs, huge national debt, disparity between rich and poor. All of these things and more. Anyway, when the next recession/depression phase starts, it won't be pretty.

[gkhouston]

45. I would have said the one around the Beltway. n/t