N.R.C. Lowers Estimate of How Many Would Die in Meltdown

[alp227]

Source: The New York Times

ROCKVILLE, Md. — The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is approaching completion of an ambitious study that concludes that a meltdown at a typical American reactor would lead to far fewer deaths than previously assumed.

The conclusion, to be published in April after six years of work, is based largely on a radical revision of projections of how much and how quickly cesium 137, a radioactive material that is created when uranium is split, could escape from a nuclear plant after a core meltdown. In past studies, researchers estimated that 60 percent of a reactor core’s cesium inventory could escape; the new estimate is only 1 to 2 percent.

A draft version of the report was provided to The New York Times by the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nuclear watchdog group that has long been critical of the commission’s risk assessments and obtained it through a Freedom of Information Act request. Since the recent triple meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan, such groups have been arguing that the commission urgently needs to tighten safeguards for new and aging plants in the United States.

The report is a synthesis of 20 years of computer studies and engineering analyses, stated in complex mathematical terms. In essence, it states that if a prolonged loss of electric power caused a typical American reactor core to melt down, the great bulk of the radioactive material released would remain inside the building even when the reactor’s containment shell was breached.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/30/science/earth/30radiation.html

[dbt]

1. I cannot tell you how comforted I am

that my government, which has been lying though its teeth for the past forty damn years, now reassures me that things will not be as bad as it once told me. Whatever COULD I have been thinking?

:freak:

[TheWraith]

2. And what has the government been "lying through it's teeth" about?

Unfounded, generalized "it's all terrible" statements like that are cynicism pretending to be wisdom.

[daleo]

4. That Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, for one thing

I hope others contribute to this. It could be an interesting list.

[Generic Other]

12. They claimed that Bush won in 2000

That was a pretty big lie.

[dbt]

5. Every economic report that's had to be revised, for openers.

And you should be extremely flattered that I'm wasting my time on one of your replies. Count yourself lucky.

[TheWraith]

6. I should count myself lucky because a cynic says a cynical thing to me?

You have a pretty low bar for luck.

[dbt]

7. No, you should count yourself lucky that there's still somebody

here that doesn't have you on Ignore. You have a pretty low bar for attention. Bye now.

[Rex]

10. Creating jobs.

[HankyDubs]

3. relief washes over me in an awesome wave

[Generic Other]

14. that's a steaming pile of radioactive bullcrap on a tsunami wave washing over you!

RUN!!!!

[swilton]

8. Numbers are fabrications

How do they calculate the deaths from exposure - increased risks of cancer in the long-term....the data to compute this kind of information is not available...attribution of death from increased exposure is harder to prove. Why should they be bothered with such nonsense - the little people don't need to know or bother with these critical figures. :sarcasm: All that needs to happen is that corporate America makes a profit off the nuclear industry - replace the petroleum oligarchs with the nuclear oligarchs...Everyone is happy :sarcasm:

[PoliticAverse]

9. So what percentage of cesium 137 escaped at Fukashima ? n/t

[Rex]

11. To sum it up - hey looky Japan is still okay, so hey guess

a meltdown ain't so bad...case closed.

EOR.

[Generic Other]

13. The answer is it hasn't stopped escaping

Ask the question this time next year.