Intrade seems positively unconvinced Mike Huckabee is going to run for President.

[Bicoastal]

These are odds for announcing a run: Romney's at 99%, Pawlenty's at 97.9%, Santorum's at 94.0%. Bachmann's at 72%. Even Trump's at 40%.

Huck is at 14.9%. What gives?

If this is true, Obama is in AWESOME shape, folks. The Republican nomination will be between a flip-flopping, health care-promoting Mormon and a bunch of crazy-eyed folks.

[emulatorloo]

1. Hate to break it to you, but Huckabee has the crazy eyes too

He's pretty good at hiding it though.

Does not seem to me like he is going to run either. Which is good I think, MSM would help him hide the fact that he is a wacky theocrat.

[On the Road]

2. Could be a Sampling Thing

one person who puts a large bet against Huckabee could skew the numbers. Unlike a poll, it counts dollars, not individuals. Just a thought.

[Bicoastal]

6. That sort of thing happened in 2008.

Obama's numbers (chances of being elected president) would drop--usually by about 5%, never more than 10%. An hour later, the numbers would be back to where they were before.

If Huck is below 20%, skewed or not, the only explanation is that the market has very little confidence in a presidential run. Makes sense, when you try to remember the last time Huck called a press conference or attracted any attention to himself.

[On the Road]

7. Here's a Trading Chart:

===========================================================

If you look at the green volume bars, this is very sparsely traded. Not much money riding on it. One person with a few hundred dollars can dramatically change the percentage, much more than a presidential race after the nominees have been decided.

But it looks like there's something else going on. Look at the trend line -- it has been fluctuating between 50% and 60%. But today it suddenly dropped to 10% based on a flurry of trades that just happened in the space of a few hours. That's an event.

There are about half a dozen people out there who think they know something. I guess we'll see if they do.

[MadBadger]

3. I agree

1. He likes his job, 2. he got fat again.

[Old and In the Way]

4. Watch the money from fundraising.

Personally, unless Obama screws up, I really don't see any fundraising bonanza for Republicans. The rubes are too broke and whatever candidate manages to win the nomination is going to have a large % of the base unhappy with the choice. The corporations are all about ROI. If they think it's a waste of capital, they'll be holding back, too.

[KharmaTrain]

5. He Gives Up A Nice Gravy Train...

He's bagging big money on the GOTB rubber chicken circuit, hosting a cruise to Alaska (where I'm sure he's getting a nice "retainer"), Faux Noise "contributor" and now he's scamming videos. Being a "contender" draws the money that goes directly into his pocket vs. a campaign that goes into others. He's a self-serving huckster...a modern day Elmer Gantry whose ego and bank balance come before country or his decrepid party (even though I think he's doing this country a BIG favor by not running).

While I'm sure his super-sized ego dreams of running, there's something there that says he will tease but not get in...but rather cash in. And somehow I also suspect that there's some deep dark secret inside his closet he doesn't want the media poking around. Nothing fact based here, just the slimy way this guy comes off.

[emilyg]

8. I heard he will make

announcement either way on his show.