"WikiLeaks docs: Nuclear reprisals if bin Laden killed"

[originalpckelly]

"Recently-released WikiLeaks documents show that detained al Qaeda members have predicted nuclear reprisals if Osama bin Laden were captured or killed.

The classified Defense Department files, obtained from detainee interviews at the Guantanamo Bay prison, were released by the document-sharing Web site a week before the raid in Pakistan that resulted in bin Laden's demise. (See list of related CNET stories.)

Abu al-Libi, al Qaeda's third in command and "operational chief" before he was captured in 2005, reportedly said the nuclear device was "located in Europe" and would be used in retaliation over bin Laden's death, according to the leaked files. The phrase "nuclear hellstorm" appears in the Defense Department's dossier on Khalid Shaykh Muhammad, who allegedly confessed to masterminding the September 11 attacks and will be tried by a military tribunal.

Another detainee, Sharif al-Masri, reportedly said that if al Qaeda was able to move the bomb to the United States, they would be able to find operatives of Europeans of Arab or Asian descent to use it. He said, the records show, if bin Laden "were to be captured or killed, the bomb would be detonated in the US" and that al-Libi "would be one of those able to give the order."

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-31921_3-20059416-281.html#ixzz1LdPuVMyJ"

[IronicNews]

1. Scary-

I guess I'll start my not-diet right now.

[tekisui]

2. Well, where is it? Almost a week later. This comes from 'interviews' at Gitmo.

We know that doesn't mean much. I guess we could all be sacred about it, but I don't think AQ has any 'nuclear device' ready to detonate.

[Trajan]

3. Some specious speculations ...

"if al Qaeda was able to move the bomb to the United States, they would be able to find operatives of Europeans of Arab or Asian descent to use it."

Kind of like saying "IF I had a gold mine, I could find gold a be a rich man" ....

Yes, you could ... If you had a gold mine ....

FACT: Many people hate not only the United States, but plenty of other states too ... and IF they could sneak a giant bomb in there, they would blow them up and feel all better !

This will eventually happen, and it will unlikely be Al Qaeda to set it off ...

[Zynx]

4. Yeah.... bullshit.

[Hugabear]

5. Pure bluff

Of course there would be dire warnings of "nuclear hellstorm" if Bin Laden were to be killed. While I don't doubt that there will be some sort of retaliation, somehow I don't think it will be nuclear. A "dirty bomb" might be possible, but I don't buy this "hidden nuke" story. For starters, if Al Qaeda had obtained a nuclear device, they would have used it already. They wouldn't simply hide it somewhere and risk its discovery.

[gkhouston]

6. Reality check: they'll use nuclear weapons as soon as they can, period.

It's got nothing to do with bin Laden.

[Capitalocracy]

7. Yeah, as if they'd just hang out with that thing if they had it

waiting for us to give them a reason

[Hugabear]

10. Why would you keep a nuke hidden somewhere for years?

Too much risk of either the nuke being found, or those who are responsible for the nuke's operation being captured, killed, or otherwise compromised.

[blondeatlast]

14. Wisdom. nt

[Poll_Blind]

11. Thank you. And you are, of course, absolutely correct.

PB

[glinda]

25. Doesn't Pakistan have them? OBL location there and possible support within

some higher ups could give them access perhaps.

[Capitalocracy]

27. Apparently everything's for sale in Pakistan.

That's the gist I got of the situation from someone that lives there. Maybe they could, but I don't think it would come cheap, even for someone like bin Laden.

[spin]

8. I hate to imagine what would happen after al Qaeda set off a nuclear bomb in Europe ...

or the United States.

I sure wouldn't want to be associated in any manner with al Qaeda or anywhere near any member of the organization. Nor would I want to be a country that was harboring them.

Now you don't tug on Superman's cape.
You don't spit in the wind.
You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger.
And you don't mess around with Jim.

Jim Croce's, "You Don't Mess Around With Jim"

[mmonk]

9. How do they plan to launch these weapons?

Are they building them? How were they able to refine uranium to weapons grade without being noticed? What facilities have they used for this process? Are they going to use ships, aircraft carriers or subs? Are they intercontinental ballistic missiles?

[Poll_Blind]

12. Well...

...it would either be a dirty bomb or, if a genuine nuclear device, purchased from looters of the breakaway Soviet republics. If you look through some of the Wikileaks stories you can find events were people have offered to sell US Embassy staff refined uranium. I can't remember if it was highly refined, which is anything over 20% pure or something like that.

Anyway, while all of the points you mentioned would be good and reasonable ones for a nation-state, the nuclear black market is presumed to be turnkey: You have the money, you can get the materials.

And of course, it would be a suicide team to detonate it.

While the leaked diplomatic cables along with many authors who have spoken with off-the-record sources from different administrations and from different governments all seem to point to this being frighteningly "easy"...if you have the cash...I have to question my own view of just how loosey-goosey it gets with nuclear materials because, in the same world view, they should have been used by now in some nation or another.

:shrug:

PB

[mmonk]

15. The US and Britian kept trying to build a dirty bomb

but couldn't pull it off to make an effective one. No one could carry it without getting too sick to make it.

[Hugabear]

17. A dirty bomb maybe. But nuclear devices aren't quite that easy to make.

Despite popular belief, it's really not that easy to make a nuclear device. There's an incredible amount of sophistication and precision that goes into making an actual nuclear bomb. There's a reason why only a handful of countries have created them.

[Poll_Blind]

23. I agree and I didn't mean to insinuate otherwise. The only way a nuclear weapon would...

...get into the hands of terrorists is by being purchased first, second, third, etc., hand from a nation-state or the remnants of one. I should have been more explicit but that's what I meant by the "turnkey" solution. Any component purchase could only lead to a dirty bomb at the hands of terrorists.

PB

[Hugabear]

24. Not only that, but buying a nuke from a nation-state probably wouldn't be effective either

Especially if it's one of the aging nukes from one of the former Soviet republics. Nuclear weapons have a relatively short shelf-life, which is why we have to continuously spend so much money upgrading our own nuclear arsenal. After a certain period of time (think it's a few years, although I don't know specifically), you have to replace the uranium or plutonium inside the device, and even that requires extreme precision. Chances are any nuclear devices that could conceivably come from the former Soviet republics would be either unstable or ineffective. Quite possibly their only usefulness would be in extracting the nuclear fuel and using it for a dirty bomb.

It's possible that a terrorist could purchase a nuclear device from a country like North Korea, but I seriously doubt that even NK is that suicidal.

The only thing that really scares the fuck out of me is Pakistan and their nuclear weapons.

[TxVietVet]

13. I believe if they had a nuclear device, they would have already used it.

The chances of authorities finding it increases as the length of time it's in their possession. Too many people know, too many mouths speak.

They may have bought something from the old USSR stockpiles that was stolen and could have been ripped off by the Russian Mafia.

I think someone is just bluffing or at least I hope they are. :nuke:

[dkf]

16. Bomb Europe as retaliation for US killing Bin Laden?

Does that make sense at all? Was Europe supposed to stop us?

[Hugabear]

19. We bombed Iraq in retaliation for Bin Laden attacking the US

So in that regard, it would make sense...

[dkf]

20. Yeah in Bush land.

[Posteritatis]

33. It actually would, to some of those guys

Just like there's plenty of people dumb enough to equate all Muslims with terrorists, there's Muslims dumb enough to equate all Christians (or at least citizens of more-or-less Christian societies) as "Crusaders." One side of the pond or another, if someone's enough of a paranoid bigot it's all the same to them.

[sabrina 1]

18. If I were being tortured, I would say things like that also.

They probably planned for being captured and tortured, they would have been stupid if they did not. Coordinating a story like that makes absolute sense.

Terror is about terrorizing people. How better to do it, than to 'confess' that a nuke is waiting to go off if they kill the leader.

And btw, if the US knew this and believes it, then why did they kill OBL?

I can see that the GWOT is never going to end. That money train is way too lucrative.

We've had 'Al Queda confirm the death of OBL' already, on 'jihadist websites'. If we know where these websites are, how come we can't locate the users? We apparently can US citizens, email, websites etc, but not these 'jihadists'? How would they know?? Were they there? Even top US officials seemed confused about details of the raid, but Al Queda (from central casting?) were able to confirm the death??

How long more is this fairy tale going to continue? Yes, there are terrorists, some are even homegrown, they've been around since mankind has been around. Frankly it's getting old this constant attempt to instill fear into people. We are all going to die, sooner or later. If it's sooner, then so be it, but I for one won't be living in fear until that day comes. I intend to enjoy the time I have here on this planet.

[dkf]

21. But Europe when you are being interrogated by the US?

Why does that make sense?

[sabrina 1]

22. The GWOT is Global! And Europe is a US ally. It makes

absolute sense. Now, if it should happen, how do you think Europeans are going to react to the US having that information, and killing him anyhow, condemning them to a possible nuke attack if it cannot be 'moved to the US'? Without even consulting them? What kind of ally would do such a thing?

Europe, Britain eg, have already been attacked.

I can imagine what was being said in Europe after this information was released.

[Old and In the Way]

26. Bluster, maybe, but I'd sure be keeping a watchful eye on Pakistan.

For some reason, I just don't trust them. And what's AQ Khan doing these days??? For a partner in our GWOT, Pakistan seems to have counter-intuitive ideas on how to fight the war on terror.



Abdul Qadeer Khan Freed From House Arrest
Latest ACA Resources

Pakistan

Chinese-Pakistani Reactor Deal Moves Ahead
(April 2011)
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_03/AQKhan

The Low Politics of Nonproliferation
(April 2011)

Nuclear Black Markets / A.Q. Khan Network

N. Korea Reveals Uranium-Enrichment Plant
(December 2010)
Spreading the Bomb for Profit
(June 2010)

Peter Crail

In February, Pakistan lifted most restrictions on former Pakistani nuclear official Abdul Qadeer Khan, who had organized an extensive black market network contributing nuclear weapons-related technology to Iran, Libya, North Korea, and perhaps other countries. The Islamabad High Court Feb. 6 declared Khan a "free citizen," although still subject to some undisclosed security measures, after finding that charges against Khan for nuclear smuggling could not be proved.

Khan has been under house arrest since 2004 when he confessed to the charges and was pardoned by then-President Gen. Pervez Musharraf. Since Musharraf was removed from power in 2008, Khan has recanted his confession and now maintains that it "was not of own free will." (See ACT, July/August 2008.)

[JTFrog]

28. Then there will really be headsplodations. n/t

[B Calm]

29. The world is a lot safer place with President Obama. Now if

George chuckle nuts Bush was still in office we would have reason to be concerned.

[Citizen Worker]

30. Beware, Patriot Act 2.0 is about to be introduced in congress.

[undeterred]

31. First, they were planning to set off a huge earthquake in northern Japan...

[Posteritatis]

32. They predict a lot of things. (nt)