VT (Democratic Primary) POLL: Obama 52, Sanders 33. Obama 61, Dean 24.

[jefferson_dem]

A primary challenger to Obama?

If there's any state where you could imagine there being a serious desire among Democratic voters to replace Barack Obama with someone further to the left next year it would probably be Vermont. Not only is it one of the most liberal states in the country it's also the home of 2 liberal icons, Bernie Sanders and Howard Dean, who if there was going to be a viable primary challenger seem like plausible candidates. But our polling there finds neither of them would come all that close to Obama, an indicator that the likelihood of Obama facing any serious contest next year is pretty minuscule.

Sanders would pose the more serious challenge to Obama but still trails 52-33. He actually would edge the President 50-38 with voters describing themselves as 'very liberal' but would face a 39 point disadvantage with 'somewhat liberal' voters at 62-23 and a 32 point deficit with moderates at 57-25.

That the margin between Obama and Sanders is as close as it is probably has more to do with Sanders' popularity than unhappiness with the President. Obama's approval rating with Democratic primary voters in the state is 81/11 and his numbers with the far left are even better than that at 86/6. Sanders is even more popular than that though, boasting a 90/7 overall approval rating, including 97/3 with 'very liberal' voters. Even with Sanders' higher approval though most voters who have a favorable view of both him and Obama would still prefer Obama for renomination.

Obama would lead Dean 61-24. He does 45 points better against Dean than Sanders with 'very liberal' voters, leading 61-28 while holding similar leads with moderate and somewhat liberal voters. Dean has comparable favorability numbers to Obama- they break down favorably 77/12- but again it's a case where voters like both Obama and Dean but want Obama to be the Democratic Presidential candidate.

<SNIP>

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/primary-challenger-to-obama.html

[TheWraith]

1. Gosh, it's almost like most Democrats like, support, and prefer Barack Obama.

Who'd have thought? Other than the ~85% of liberal Dems who still support Obama.

Oh, and I guarantee you that those numbers are high in terms of actual support. Vermonters would give some extra love to their hometown favorites in a poll. Poll the same question using Russ Feingold, and I bet the numbers get cut in half.

[_ed_]

8. Obviously

Don't you hate it when the far-lefties don't realize that supporting a Democrat no matter what he does is far more important than fighting for liberal values and policy? I mean, don't they realize that electoral victories are the only important thing in national policy?

[TheWraith]

25. Actually, I hate it when people make shit up.

I hate it when people smear the only party which is working to fix things.

I hate it when people decide to sacrifice good on the altar of their idea of perfection.

I hate it when people would rather hand over the world to the Republicans rather than ever soil themselves by accepting anything less than the total word for word implementation of their exact ideological desires.

[_ed_]

55. Actually, I hate it when

people use straw men and false choices to make absurd arguments in fealty to a political personality instead of actual ideals.

[mochajava666]

95. Well said

[swilton]

84. They must think Bernie is as much of a threat as Palin

or Bachman to manufacture these statistics. But wait! I forgot how good the Obama campaign is at manufacturing.

[Davis_X_Machina]

2. How many wrong people can you pack into one state?

Or perhaps there's no internet up there yet?

[Dawgs]

3. That's not good news for Obama.

Most people have no idea who Sanders is, and they certainly don't know anything about his populist positions.

[Indykatie]

4. Huh? Isn't This a VT Poll? They Know Who Sanders Is.

[Dawgs]

11. You're right. He's doing great. 52% among Democrats (vs. an Indy) is great news.

:rofl:

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. In Bernie's own backyard? He should be running away with this thing.

But nice try. :spray:



:rofl:

[Dawgs]

23. So, the super-fabulous President can only get 52 against an independant, who's not even running,..

and that's supposed to be good news for the President and bad news for Bernie.

At least you're admitting that Bernie Sanders would make a much better President than the current one.

[Tarheel_Dem]

30. See post #20. I think it pretty much says it all.

Much like Dennis Kucinich, Bernie makes a great activist, but legislatively his bark has been much worse than his bite. If Bernie were all he's cracked up to be, he would've thrown his hat in the ring without hesitation. I mean, if a patriot thought his country needed him, and his brand of politics, what would stop him? R-E-A-L-I-T-Y, that's what. At least Bernie recognizes that, even if you don't.
:rofl:

[Dawgs]

43. See response #48.

Bernie Sanders means nothing to me as a candidate. My concern is President Obama's lack of Democratic support in this poll.

Keep digging though.

[Tarheel_Dem]

49. You jumped in All Wrong in #3. Glad Bernie doesn't mean anything to you "as a candidate".

Apparently, VT agrees with you. :rofl: You'll just have to deal with the fact that VT agrees with me, that President Obama is now, and will be the Dem's best choice for POTUS in 2012.

Here....maybe this will help?

:hi:

[Dawgs]

54. What about the 30-48% of Democrats that didn't pick President Obama in this poll.

What will they do? Does that concern you?

[Tarheel_Dem]

60. "Does that concern you?" Not in the least b/c there won't be a primary.

What don't you get about that? You do realize that this is a primary poll, and since the president has no primary opponent in either Sanders or Dean, especially in their own home state, there's no reason to believe that the small percentage of "liberals" you keep touting will vote for the Republican. I think you've seriously lost your way in this discussion. :shrug:

[Dawgs]

61. So, the 48% that would rather NOT have Obama are guaranteed to vote for him next year?

What makes you so sure?

[Tarheel_Dem]

63. 48% of approximately 3% won't much matter. They're not guaranteed to vote for Obama

but I'll bet the state that repeatedly sends an actual "Socialist" to DC, won't vote for RomPalinBachPerry either. ;)

[cali]

86. no he shouldn't. Obama should be doing much better against Bernie

I'm a Vermonter and the level of support for Obama here has shrunk dramatically.

[Tarheel_Dem]

94. Did you miss this? And shrunk from what? The "very liberal"?

'very liberal' but would face a 39 point disadvantage with 'somewhat liberal' voters at 62-23 and a 32 point deficit with moderates at 57-25.

Bernie's advantage, and Obama's deficit is with those who call themselves "very liberal". But the president swamps Bernie with those who claim to be "somewhat liberal", and "moderates". I ask again, shrunk from what? :shrug: Why is Bernie losing by near 20 pts. in his own homestate?

[CakeGrrl]

15. Or put another way, Sanders and Dean can't even take their home state.

If you're riding the "Draft Bernie Sanders" train, you have your work cut out for you.

He or she with the most votes wins. Percentages aren't a point of shame.

Good luck!

[Dawgs]

26. I'm not riding any train - just pointing out that 48% of Democrats in Vermont are not picking Obama.

Percentages ARE a point of shame if you're the sitting President and you can only get 52% support.

[Tarheel_Dem]

31. And a whopping 67% aren't "picking" Bernie. Still trying?

:rofl:

Pick! Pick!

[Dawgs]

38. So. I could care less who they pick. I'm not here to support Bernie. n/t

:rofl:

[Tarheel_Dem]

41. Mmmmmkay....

:hi:



:rofl:

[CakeGrrl]

35. Whatever you need to get you through the day. It won't stop him from being re-elected.

Ask Bill Clinton, who was re-elected with 43% of the popular vote. I don't really think he cared.

[Dawgs]

40. Bill Clinton won with only 43% of the popular vote among DEMOCRATS?

Because, if not, then you're argument is ridiculous.

[CakeGrrl]

65. Oh, the irony.

:rofl:

I still have to wonder why you're obsessively wandering around in these weeds. Methinks the obvious bad news those two Great Progressive hopes to even make it out of their home state successfully has taken its toll.

It reminds me of the thread about the President being banned from DU. I guess it made people feel better to imagine it, even if it's not an issue in the reality plane.

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. Vermonters don't know who Bernie Sanders is? This might come as surprise to Bernie.

:rofl: for your fatal flaw in "logic". :crazy:

[ingac70]

6. LOL Did you READ where the poll was taken? n/t

[jaxx]

9. The survey was done IN Vermont, they know who Sanders is.

PPP surveyed 617 usual Vermont Democratic primary voters, with a +/- 3.9% margin of
error, and 366 usual Republican primary voters, with a +/- 5.1% margin of error, from
July 28th
to 31st
. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is
a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times
found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VT_0804.pdf

[Renew Deal]

16. He's the senator from the state the poll was conducted in

:shrug:

[Dawgs]

29. So. Are you saying that people can only be ignorant if the politician is from out of state?

n/t

[Tarheel_Dem]

33. Nope, I think RD is saying you didn't bother to read past the headline...

or you wouldn't have made this slip-up.

"Most people have no idea who Sanders is, and they certainly don't know anything about his populist positions."

The o.p. clearly states that this was a VT poll, and had absolutely nothing to do with "most people".
Had you bothered to read further, you would have known that before offering "your response".
:rofl:

[Name removed]

45. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Number23]

90. Oh Lord, PLEASE. Just hush. PLEASE stop.

[jefferson_dem]

19. Ooopsie...

:)

[Dawgs]

28. Not quite. Ignorance is not limited for out of state politicians only.

This is America.

[jefferson_dem]

34. Oh...

You're saying that Vermonters don't know about Bernie and that's why he would get walloped by Obama in an hypothetical head-to-head? That's just silly...you know it.

That being said, I wouldn't dispute your "ignorant Americans" charge.

[Dawgs]

37. I'm not saying Vermonters don't know Bernie.

I'm saying many are just not that interested in politics. They may love Bernie Sanders, but they are still Democrats. And most probably like Obama AND Sanders. So, when asked in a poll to pick who they wanted as the next DEMOCRATIC President, and the choice is between the one they know and the one who's not even a Democrat, they will most likely pick the one they know.

You have to admit that getting ONLY 52% support against anyone is not that great when you're the sitting President and the only people voting in the poll are from your party.

Can you imagine Bush getting only 52% in a state poll in 2003 and Republicans bragging about how good he's doing?

[Turn CO Blue]

7. Hey, this cannot be true, because I read DU and DailyKos

and on there they make it sound like every single left-leaning voter, every Democrat, every Green, every progressive, every whatever (secular humanist, skeptic, giraffe, doggie and kittycat) REALLY, REALLY thinks there should be a Dem Party primary against the incumbent.

That's what they write, and they are soooooo in the know of what the street thinks too.

So yeah, which source should I trust? Hmmmm?

[Tarheel_Dem]

10. The "opinion makers" are pushing this narrative, but it looks like a big FAIL!

They thought the debt fight would be their opening, but in two months no one will even remember it, and the numbers will improve just as they've done with healthcare reform. Guess you can't believe everything you read on the internet?
:fistbump:

[Dawgs]

12. 52% versus an Indy is good news.

Okay.

[Tarheel_Dem]

17. Can't you just admit you only read the headline, and now you're trying (unsuccessfully) to cover?

:rofl:

[Dawgs]

21. Cover for what?

I'm not the one trying to spin 52% as something positive for Obama.

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. Still trying?????

:rofl:

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[totodeinhere]

68. Opinion makers are usually ahead of the general public. For instance,

opinion makers were turning against the war in Viet Nam while the public at large still supported it, but eventually the public came around. I could cite several other similar examples.

Obama does not want opinion makers turning against him. It does not bode well for his future.

[Tarheel_Dem]

78. Where the hell have you been? They "turned against him" only months into his administration.

:shrug:

For instance, Helen Thomas couldn't wait 60 days before she wrote her first diatribe, and it hasn't let up since. Have you seen the crap that gets posted around here from FDL? Puhleezzzz. :eyes:

[totodeinhere]

79. Helen Thomas lost her opinion maker status some time ago. n/t

[Tarheel_Dem]

80. Oh, I didn't know that.

:sarcasm:

Obama took office in mid January '09, and Helen wrote her first scalding article the next month. Her "liberal" colleagues followed suit, that's what I meant by "it hasn't let up since". Mkay?

[Fire1]

14. HA!! I knew that shit. Ya didn't even have to tell me! LOL! n/t

[rox63]

18. VT has only one electoral vote

So don't get all excited about this.

[jefferson_dem]

20. If a primary challenger from Obama's left flank can get no traction in Vermont...

Where can he (or she) get traction?

Of course, electoral votes apply to the General Election contest. Surely, nobody here would promote opposing Obama in November...once he secures the nomination.

[Dawgs]

42. Are you kidding me? My point is not about Obama versus someone on the left.

It's the lack of support he's getting against anyone.

I'm very concerned that he is going to lose next year, and this poll only increases those fears.

[jefferson_dem]

47. I realize that's your point now.

It wasn't your point before before, however, when apparently you didn't realize this was a poll of those who 1. Know Bernie and Dean the most; 2. Are most likely to support opposition to Obama from the left. Still, Obama womps each of them. This poll is simply *another* piece of evidence that refutes the claim that Obama is not pure enough for liberals. That's all...

Very concerned, indeed.

[Dawgs]

51. Fuck. It was always my point.

No where in this thread did I mention my support for Sanders. No where did I say that Sanders/Dean weren't from Vermont. No where did I say any of the things that you cheerleaders have accused me of saying.

And only getting 52% in a poll of Democrats is not a WHUPPING. It should be a huge cause for concern for any Democrat that wants to see Obama win. For instance, what are those 48% that DIDN'T pick Obama planning to do next year. Are they staying home? Are they voting for someone else? That doesn't concern you?

[Dawgs]

57. Also, you realize that Obama loses to "very liberal" Democrats 50/38 in this poll.

So, I'm not sure this is best proof for refuting "the claim that Obama is not pure enough for liberals".

[Tarheel_Dem]

58. And what percentage is "very liberal"? About 3%? Still trying I see.

Three percent (3%) doesn't win a primary. Just ask Dennis Kucinich. :hi:

[Name removed]

59. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Tarheel_Dem]

22. The electoral vote isn't in question here. The point of the o.p. was that

Obama beats Vermont's own "liberal" icons, in their own playpen. One of whom is actually calling for the president to be primaried.
:rofl:

[vroomvroom]

27. Translation: It's OK for Democrats to Shift Right and Serve Wall Street

As the OP shows if Vermont still woudl choose Obama over Sanders i can't say much against that. VT is defintely liberal and is on the verge of being the first state with universal healthcare (god forbid /sarcasm).

This tells me that the country is perfectly fine in shifting towards Right-leaning ideals as long as you do it in a more sugar-coated stealthy way (e.g. by saying "what could i do..republicans tied my hands"). Yes, both parties serve Wall Street but what's sad is that even genuine liberals in VT dont mind it. This also tells me you need to put in conservative policies by doing so in a slow, indirect way, so as not to upset the liberals. And if they do get upset just ignore them and they will soon enough accept it.

Again, i am in awe with VT.

Obama is a center-right president for the most part, or if you dont feel he is then at the very least he is afriad of republicans that he is willing to shift policies to appease them. Either way, i dont respect that.

[Fearless]

36. +10000!

[Fearless]

39. Umm... amongst very liberal voters it is 61-28 against Dean and 16-73 against Sanders??

"He does 45 points better against Dean than Sanders with 'very liberal' voters, leading 61-28."


----------


If he does 45 points better against Dean than Sanders with the most liberal voters and for Dean it is 61-28 in favor of Obama.... does that not make it 16-73 PRO-SANDERS over Obama? I'm just asking. That's the way the math works. Perhaps it's poorly written? Perhaps not?

[HappyCynic]

52. Poorly written...

It's poorly written (and with a slight error). Amongst "very liberal" voters, it's 50/38 in favour of Sanders, which puts President Obama at -12 in that matchup. For Dean, it's 61/28 (text says 61/24 but chart says 61/28) in favour of President Obama (+33). The difference between the spreads is 45 points.

[Fearless]

89. That does seem more likely. Go Bernie!

[Freddie Stubbs]

44. Yeah, but how liberal are VT Democratic voters? And how well do they know this Sanders guy?

Perhaps they should poll a state with more liberal Democratic voters who know Bernie Sanders better.

[Fearless]

46. Sanders is THEIR Senator.

[Dawgs]

48. They're still Americans.

And only a very small percentage of us follow politics close enough to know individual Senators positions.

[Fearless]

50. It's Vermont.

[Dawgs]

53. So? Are you saying that EVERY Democrat in VT is informed on politics?

I hope not, because you're incredibly ignorant if you do.

[Renew Deal]

64. What part of Vermont are you from?

[Fearless]

91. I am saying that the average Vermont Democrat does know what they're talking about, yes.

[libmom74]

56. I think for someone

who isn't even out campaigning it is too early to even tell. Remember how far behind Hilary Clinton Obama was in the beginning of the primary season? Why are companies even bothering with this type of polling of hypothetical liberal challengers, does the adminstration feel threatened?

[golfguru]

62. Obama will never lose in primaries, but if it happens,

it will most certainly hurt his campaign. He will be forced to move more to the center-right.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

72. I get it, now. These people are creaming their pants because they never really got over 2008!!! n/t

[totodeinhere]

66. By historical standards, 33% against a sitting president isn't half bad.

I would be interested to see a poll in New Hampshire. Remember that LBJ actually won the New Hampshire primary in 1968 but dropped out anyway because it was widely perceived that his vote margin was not big enough. It is still early. Obama would certainly win any primary right now, but if and when polls start showing Sanders approaching 40%, then watch out.

[grahamhgreen]

67. Looks good! That's about where Obama started.

[Biden Fan]

69. No mention of Hillary?

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/hillary_rodham_clinton/index.html?story=/politics/war_room/2011/08/04/dickinson_hillary_2012 :evilgrin:

[Bluenorthwest]

70. In all of US History, Vermont has had only 3 Senators who

caucused with the Democrats. Bernie, Leahy, and Jeffords during his independent phase. Only one of them was a full Party Democrat, Mr Leahy.
This makes the framing of Vermont as the liberal example a bit difficult to swallow. One Democratic Senator in history. Plus Bernie. And the rest Republicans. Also Whigs and the like. One Democrat.
So sorry about not commenting on the rest of it, but the historical assumptions about Vermont elections in the opening are glaringly incorrect, and that makes the rest seem so hotly crafted and compost like.

[swilton]

82. ++++

The poll was not from a Vermont company as the title of this post implies - it was from a North Carolina think tank - and the Bennington Banner, a newspaper from Bennington, Vermont reported on August 4 that Bernie Sanders led all candidates for 2012 by 18 points.

The source of this post is garbage.

Here is the excerpt from the August 4 Bennington Banner:
"Well, regardless of who the real radical is in 2011, recent polls show that Vermonters strongly approve of their "socialist" senator. In addition to crushing every potential 2012 challenger by 18 or more percentage points in a Public Policy Polling survey, the senator has an approval rating of 67 percent and disapproval rating of only 28 percent.

Polls are never exactly what they seem and only reflect a moment in time, but this one is pretty damn convincing: Senator Sanders is popular and -- we would venture a wild guess -- isn't considered all that radical by those who know him best."

[cali]

87. huh? Vermont is the most liberal state in the country now- not 50 or

100 years ago- and even then it wasn't exactly conservative. Vermont, for instance, was the first state to outlaw slavery. Over the last 40 years, Vermont has enacted liberal legislation in virtually every area- from the environment to GLBT rights. And that one dem Senator in history? He's been there almost 40 years. Bernie? Been in Congress almost 30 years. Jeffords? More liberal than most dems when he was a republican.

Your knowledge of my state is glaringly lacking, hon.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

71. +1,000,000! It is so clear to me what's going on here at DU. Obama-Biden 2012!! n/t

[CreekDog]

73. 19 point spread against someone who isn't running?

you know, that doesn't sound as good as you think it does.

[CakeGrrl]

85. Except neither Sanders nor Dean will run, so it's a non-starter.

Sanders, like Nader, thinks someone should challenge, but not them personally. Nader doesn't even think the primary should try to actually defeat the President.

[Juche]

74. Here is another fun poll

Obama vs McCain, taken in October 2006.



McCain 510 electoral votes, Obama 28 (DC, Hawaii & IL). Obama had no name recognition in 2006, McCain did.


Give it time. If a primary challenger has a year or so to build up credentials, it could be a serious battle. At the very least it would teach Obama a lesson.

Sanders isn't even running. I don't know the stats, but I believe a majority of people can't even name their own senators. So I wouldn't be surprised if VTers don't even know who Sanders is.

[Imajika]

75. This stuff is absolutely silly....

There will be no serious primary challenge to President Obama. Period. It will NOT happen.

[craigmatic]

76. Numbers can move not saying that he'll get a challenger but if he did things can change.

[Hippo_Tron]

77. Only PPP would poll on something as inane as this...

[swilton]

81. This is not a Vermont poll

It is a poll conducted by a North Carolina think tank - the title of this post is misleading....

This is a statement about Vermont polling published in the August 4 Bennington Banner taken from Sanders' website.


Well, regardless of who the real radical is in 2011, recent polls show that Vermonters strongly approve of their "socialist" senator. In addition to crushing every potential 2012 challenger by 18 or more percentage points in a Public Policy Polling survey, the senator has an approval rating of 67 percent and disapproval rating of only 28 percent.

Polls are never exactly what they seem and only reflect a moment in time, but this one is pretty damn convincing: Senator Sanders is popular and -- we would venture a wild guess -- isn't considered all that radical by those who know him best.


http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=ec1ca1e0-b7db-454d-b371-d66160c0cd94

[jefferson_dem]

83. PPP is not a "think tank."

It is a very reputable polling firm based in NC. Their record is solid. Here, for example: http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0711/The_polling_is_right_Why_PPP_deserves_props.html

Please get your facts straight before disparaging others to suit your own spin...political agenda.

[EndElectoral]

88. If Obama wins this easily, then he shouldn't fear a primary challenge. Bring it on. Let's see.

[Number23]

92. I've been laughing but this isn't even funny anymore

If people think that a man running damn near 20 POINTS behind the president is HIS OWN HOME STATE is "bad news for the incumbent president" then what the hell can you say to people like this? Barney Frank made a famous statement about talking to a "dining room table" when dealing with a teabagger. I think his statement is apt here as well.

The desire, the desperate need, by some here to believe that because they and their friends/families are unhappy with the president that EVERYONE must be is reaching an almost fanatical point. When poll after poll after poll; Election after election after election tell you that your thoughts/opinions/beliefs are not in line with the majority of people, you can either acknowledge it as reality or you can bury your head in the sand and pretend that you're the only one who knows the "truth."

There will be no primary contender to this president. The EXTREME majority of Democrats, and almost as importantly, LIBERAL Democrats support this president and Democratic officials (elected and not) across the country know this. Anyone who says otherwise is merely pandering to the 10-15% of Dems/"liberals" who say they will not support this president. Bernie Sanders being 19 points behind Obama in Vermont would be bad news for BERNIE if he was considering running (and being the incredibly smart man he is) which he most likely is not even considering. Obama's problems right now are with independents, NOT LIBERALS and you know why?? Because they think he is TOO LIBERAL!!!

[Armstead]

93. I am extremely pissed Obama and love Sanders -- But I'd choose Obama in a primary

This whole poll and thread is ridulous because Bernie is not a Democrat, has indicated no interest in running -- it's appkes and oranges.