TPM Chart of the Day: If Congress Does Nothing, The Deficit Will Disappear

[flpoljunkie]

CHART OF THE DAY: If Congress Does Nothing, The Deficit Will Disappear
Brian Beutler
June 24, 2011, 6:20AM


On Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office released its updated long-term budget forecast, which looked surprisingly like the previous version of its long-term budget forecast.

It showed, as one might expect, that if the Bush tax-cuts remain in effect and Medicare and Medicaid spending isn't constrained in some way, the country will topple into a genuine fiscal crisis -- not the fake one the Congress is pretending the country's in right now.

Republicans, of course, seized on that particular projection, and claimed (a bit ridiculously) that it proved the government must adopt their precise policy views: major spending cuts, particularly to entitlement programs.

While all this -- from the findings to the politicization of them -- is perfectly expected, the forecast also presents another opportunity to remind people that the medium-term budget outlook is perfectly fine if Congress adheres to the law as it's currently written. That means no repealing the health care law, for one, but more significantly it means allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire, and (unfathomably) allowing Medicare reimbursement rates for doctors to fall to the levels prescribed by the formula Congress wrote almost 15 years ago. In other words, no more "doc fixes."



http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/06/chart-of-the-day-if-congress-does-nothing-the-deficit-will-disappear.php?ref=fpblg

[rfranklin]

1. No, no, no! We must buy into the Republican meme...DEFICIT! BANKRUPT! DEFAULT!

This has been the Republican playbook for thrity years and the Dems still haven't come up with an argument to counter them. I wonder why?

[vi5]

2. At this point it's wrong to call it the Republican meme....

Because I've yet to see any actual Democrat in any elected capacity bearing any power or leadership, point out that it's all bullshit.

So it's not a "Republican meme" it's a "Washington DC meme".

[msongs]

3. too bad Mr. Obama didn't veto the tax cut extension for the wealthy, at least on that issue nt

[bornskeptic]

4. That's not what the chart really says.

The budget would be in primary balance, which means that interest expense is not considered. Interest on the national debt at thar time would likely be something over $600 billion, how much over depending on interest rates.

The primary point, that the Republican deficit panic is bullshit, is certainly true, But it's not useful to pretend that we aren't facing deficit problems, at least in the long term. Allowing the SGR prescriptions to take effect would be disastrous. Most specialists would probably get by fine, but many primary care providers would be virtually forced to opt out of Medicare, or at least to stop taking new Medicare patients. Many are doing so under the current rates, and the combination of the draconian SGR cuts and the huge influx of baby boomers into the program would soon make it virtually impossible for most new enrollees to find a PCP.