How Hochul did it, and why RePUKES should be scared shitless.

[RBInMaine]

Yeah, Corwin made mistakes and was less likeable. And yes, Davis took more votes from Corwin than Hochul no doubt. (But SOME D's and Progressives actually voted for Davis on the trade imbalance/made in America issue. Also, remember that a Green in the race took 1% which would have gone to Hochul. If was a one on one race, Hochul would still have polled very well, though perhaps not quite enough to win. Hard to say, but no doubt still close. And even a close race in this VERY red district would have sent the same message you'll see below.)

Hochul won because: 1) The R base was not nearly as motivated as in November because they knew they didn't have the issues on their side nor a strong candidate. 2) Hochul ran a disciplined campaign casting herself as a pragmatic and relatively independent MODERATE who would save Medicare, make the rich pay their fair share, end corporate loopholes, but also get serious about reducing wasteful spending and holding the line on taxes for the middle class and small businesses. 3) She stayed on message and ran as a FIGHTER putting her opponent on defense.
4) She turned out her base well, WON INDIES, and even cut into some R territory. THIS IS HOW YOU MUST WIN IN RED AND SWING DISTRICTS. No ultra liberal could have come close. 5) With motivated D's in NY and around the country, she was able to get enough financing to put up a fight, despite huge dollars from Rove and the corporate R's. 6) A key issue, MEDICARE MEDICARE MEDICARE. She won a lot of seniors in a district where 20 percent are older people. It was a winning issue, BIGTIME. And we are on the right side. 7) Another key issue being JOBS JOBS JOBS. 8) Finally, a solid grassroots campaign.

Why should R's be shitting their pants? Because on Medicare and the other issues, but especially Medicare and SS, they are DOOMED for 2012. We are going to hang the Ryan vote around their necks like a fucking millstone. Hochul should never have come close in this overwhelmingly red district. Also, this race shows D's can be very competetive EVERYWHERE and that we will be MOTIVATED. Also, they are losing seniors BIGTIME over Medicare.

So there you have it. A model campaign and winning formula for Dems in red and purple districts. And in some ways, also in blue districts to keep. Trust me, the R's are shitting their fucking pants right now. YA !

[Mz Pip]

1. Money doesn't guarrantee success

all the millions that the GOP/Rove dumped into this election tells me that it's going to cost the GOP billions to defend the GOP seats in 2012.

Money can't buy a winning message and the GOP does not have a winning message.

[RBInMaine]

2. True, but money does help. With motivated D's, we can still fundraise well.

[Hippo_Tron]

28. It has a lot to do with your margin of victory

For example, in 2010, Republicans were going to gain seats regardless of money. The fact that they gained as many as they did, though, had much to do with the fact that due to Citizens United, you had IE groups erasing the incumbent fundraising advantage that Democrats had.

[Dawson Leery]

3. Hochul took 48%. It is possible that most of Davis' votes may have gone to Hocul too.

The polling suggested that Hochul could have prevailed in a 2 way race. Seeing her so close to 50%, it is reasonable to consider this.

[dkf]

4. Did she win in excess of 50%?

[Zynx]

6. She would have in a two-way race according to pre-election polling.

Since the polling accurately predicted the win, I am inclined to believe those numbers as well.

[Hippo_Tron]

29. This was more than a 2-1 GOP district, if I understand correctly

Which means that if your vote is split in half and your candidate loses, you're underperforming. Not only was the vote not split in half, but Hochul got 47% and it's conceivable she could have won a two way race.

[Historic NY]

5. they are a little upset a Freak Repukes.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2724635/posts

[yellowcanine]

16. Heh - they can't decide if it is voter fraud, Chris Lee's fault, Davis's fault, or stupid voters.

To: freedomwarrior998

What a shame. I am so mad at that Chris Lee. What a dope. Now the media and the Dems will be crowing about their huge victory, and he helped hand it to them. But I thought this was a majority Republican district. What is with voters there turning blue now?! Do they want to go back to the days of the Pelosi Congress?? If they are so timid that the GOP Congress has them so scared then what hope is there.

6 posted on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:00:34 PM by TNCMAXQ
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To: TNCMAXQ

Medicare.

The American people are just not yet ready to deal with entitlements. This nation is still wedded to the social welfare state and there is real clear evidence that people are willing to ween themselves from it.

7 posted on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:02:29 PM by Longbow1969
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To: TNCMAXQ

there is no way a Dem can win in today’s climate in these kind of areas unless there is a massive fraud.

I thought up there was a more conservative area too .

8 posted on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:02:35 PM by manc (Hannity is a fraud , he admitted he's socially liberal on his show, he's took us for suckers)
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To: randita

Thanks.

9 posted on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:02:42 PM by presently no screen name
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To: TNCMAXQ; All

The only reason why this is happening is the fake Tea Party Candidate..

10 posted on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:02:52 PM by KevinDavis (The Birthers have a TMI issue..)
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To: manc; All

It is the third party candidate that is doing the trick...

11 posted on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:03:44 PM by KevinDavis (The Birthers have a TMI issue..)
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To: randita
Davis the former Democrat and FAKE Tea Party Candidate worked out well for his buddy Hochul.

Looks like you only have to fool 8% of the people part of the time, on Election Day.
12 posted on Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:04:46 PM by Kickass Conservative (If Sarah Palin was President, you would have a job by now...)
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[Tarheel_Dem]

7. I heard her acceptance speech. Get ready for the screeching from the

leftosphere. She promised her constituents that she would "work across the aisle". That seems to be a no-no in today's political climate. The Green got a whopping 1%, but that 1% will make her career a living hell. Remember, pragmatism = "caving"; compromise = "no backbone".

I'm thrilled for her, and for the Dems that worked so hard to make this happen. I just hope she'll be given a chance by all of us, Greens included. This is definitely not an Obama district, so she'll have to prove her independence, and occasionally side with the opposition. She won't catch a break from Repukes because she did the unforgiveable. She had the audacity to run & ultimately win in one of the reddest districts in the country, so they'll be coming after her, bigtime.

[flamingdem]

8. The aisle thing didn't get the reaction that tax the rich did! nt

[RBInMaine]

13. No far-left liberal could EVER have done what she did last night. She ran overall as a pragmatic

"independent Democrat" strong on certain core Dem principles like Medicare, SS, and the rich paying their fair share, but also willing to work with willing Pubs on doing deficit reduction the right way and holding the line on taxes on middle class and small business. She also showed she could stand up to some in her own state party on certain issues. It was a winning formula for purple and red districts. WAY better to have a moderate D than a right wing R, and the far lefters better realize that and end the circular firing squad nonsense.

[DCBob]

14. +1

[Armstead]

17. Maybe YOU should stop helping to perpetuate the circular firing squad nonsense

Jeezum. She just won and already you're using it as an excuse to engage in your tiresome bashing of "the left."

[RBInMaine]

23. Oh HOGWASH. No one is "bashing the left." You need to find reality and understand how a D was

able to actually win in a red district. GREAT if you are on the far left in a far left district. I'm all for it. But no Kucinich type D could have possibly won that race last night in NY 26. That's all I'm saying. THAT is NOT "bashing the left." It is just stating the plain fact that it took running as a pragmatic moderate able to be independent on certain issues. Having worked on more campaigns for very liberal to moderate D's I sure as hell don't need to be accused of "bashing the left." Kathy Hochul ran as a MODERATE and "INDEPENDENT" "different kind of Democrat" (her words) and was able to WIN a RED district. I say god damn GOOD and THAT is how we can have a chance to re-capture the purple and even some red districts in 2012: Running moderate fighters who are right on Medicare and SS. In districts that are deep blue, then run VERY blue candidates. FINE. I'm all for it. Happier now? Get it?

[Armstead]

24. ya know, her positions on the issues she ran on were not different from "the left"

And you're correct, in that district it was best that she is a moderate. My response to your post is because you constantly use any excise you can find to carry on your jihad against "the lefty" even though you profess to have liberal positions yourself.

Your analysis would have been more effective with those little side swipes. That's all I'm sayin'

[RBInMaine]

25. Bullshit that I go after "lefties." Apparently you use selective reading. Just because I say that

it is important to have a large tent in order to be a viable national party, and just because I point out the obvious fact that Hochul ran as an "independent Democrat" and a "different kind of Democrat" (the latter echoing Bill Clinton himself), basically a moderate on balance who also campaigned on the fact that she repeatedly fought her own party leadership on some ideas in NY, which she HAD to do in order to be a viable candidate in THAT race, you say I'm bashing the left. UNTRUE. I think very highly of Bernie, and Sherrod, and Dennis, and the Barbaras, and many that are well left of center. I don't agree with them on everything, but do on much more than I ever would any Republican. I also respect more moderate Dems too. You need to understand that someone as far left as Kucinich could never in a million years win a national race. He's simply too far left nationally. Just because I state a plain fact such as that doesn't mean I'm bashing the left. Get it now, finally?

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. What you said!

:applause:

[OHdem10]

9. Rachel explained last night, every time Davis numbers fell--

Hochul's went up. He was taking from Hochul probably
on Free Trade. One of his main issues was doing something
about Unfair Trade Policies taking jobs overseas.

[LatteLibertine]

10. The way Republicans are sabotaging their own

party's popularity with the average citizen makes me worry that they may try to steal the election in 2012.

They don't seem afraid to take whatever position it is that wealthy special interest groups desire, regardless of our opinion or expressed outrage. I warned my friends if they got in power the payback to their masters would be steep. You may see that clearly in the things they've tried to do from the House and as Governor in some states. For one reason or the other, they don't seem to give a damn.

Most of the money and power is on their side. In addition, it's been pointed out before, that it's not hard to tamper with or corrupt the voting process in our country as it is.

[MadMaddie]

22. This is true, however; many Republicans voted for the Dem

in this race and I think we will see the same thing in 2012. If you add the Democratic Voters, Moderates and Republicans that will vote Democratic the numbers will be overwhelming. The races have to be close to steal them and I think they are not going to be close in many cases.

[craigmatic]

11. It was a combination of medicare and the 3rd party guy pushing her over the top.

[RBInMaine]

12. The third party guy may have been drawing equally from both. Some liberals were for him on the trade

imbalance issues, issues on sending jobs overseas, etc. Those were issues that play to a progressive base, not a traditional free trade R base.

[Recursion]

21. Plus he has a history running in the district

As a Democrat, and losing repeatedly to Reynolds. Also, Hochul may have taken a hit for not living in the district.

[Hippo_Tron]

30. Even if his voters would've gone 2-1 for the Republican, Hochul still would've won

Not to mention the Green Party candidate got 1%. And even if Hochul had lost, it would still be a huge underperformance, comparable to Hackett vs Schmidt back in 2005.

[RedSpartan]

15. The tide is turning...

Dems now lead on the generic congressional ballot:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/05/context_1.php?ref=fpblg

[JustAnotherGen]

19. True on the Davis and 'jobs' thing

That's something my mom encountered calling in her district last week to get out the vote. There ARE solid Democratics that were looking at Davis (maybe not all of them actually VOTED for him) that were saying . . . we have empty manufacturing facilities (Xerox, Kodak, Motts is hanging on) - why can't we seem to get jobs/industry back into them. He was hitting a nerve with the company town folks of yesteryear up there.

[Recursion]

20. He had also run as a D in a few previous elections

So there was probably some name recognition there. Oddly enough, Hochul doesn't actually live in NY-26 though she represents about a third of it as county clerk, so she probably started out with less name recognition than Davis.

[footinmouth]

26. She ran a great campaign

Most of the phone calls that came in on her behalf had a live body on the other end of the phone. I was privileged to get a call from her mother! Such a nice lady and spoke from her heart. She was not reading from a piece of paper. I can't help but think that calls like that may have made a difference for those who were undecided.

Contrast her campaign's personal touch to the calls that came in for Corwin: robo calls from Pat Boone, Alan West (ugh), Marco Rubio, some group against same-sex marriage and some other group spewing lies about women's health issues.

Davis was a factor, but not so much in siphoning votes. He was running on different issues. Davis promoted his own issues but he spent a lot of time/money attacking Corwin. This took her totally off message and she wasted valuable time and money volleying back a him. Hochul seemed like an afterthough during the early stages of the campaign. The incident with Corwin's chief of staff's camera just reeked of ambush and people saw through it. Jane offered no explanation for the incident. That didn't help her cause much either.

Kathy stayed on message, and stayed away from personal attacks. Her media ads were issue-oriented and got her point across well. I'm so proud to have her as my representative. She will serve Western NY well.

[opihimoimoi]

27. Saving this Pvt Ryan ain't worth it.....not ever....its a scam for the rich...