Quinnipiac Poll--NY Gov: Cuomo: 49% Paladino 43%

[WI_DEM]

I think Quinnipiac should just retire from the polling business. No way that Cuomo is leading in NY for Governor by only six points:

Quinnipiac
9/16-20/10; 751 likely voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

New York

2010 Governor
49% Cuomo (D), 43% Paladino (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Andrew Cuomo: 51 / 34
Carl Paladino: 36 / 31

[fugop]

1. Likely voters again

Another poll discounting Dems, probably, due to their "likely voter" models. I bet in registered it would be different, but everyone keeps assuming only enthusiastic Republicans are going to vote.

God, I so hope Dems prove them all so wrong they look like IDIOTS when this is over.

[WI_DEM]

3. Me too.

[seattleblue]

15. "Enthusiastic" is not what is used to determine "like;y voters"

Any politician will tell you the most accurate predictor of who will vote is who has voted in the past. Likely voters are those who have voted in the past election or two. Registered voters are meaningless because many people register and never vote. Most politicians never do mailings to all registered voters because they know it is a waste of money.

[fugop]

23. Likely or registered ...

I dunno, but in the writeup of the poll, the polling director even says:

"In other Quinnipiac University polls, we have found that the shift from registered voters to likely voters favors Republicans as more conservative voters are more energized to vote right now."

Energized sounds like they're using enthusiasm as some kind of gauge in their likely screen. They seem to be saying that the likely voter screen favors GOP due to their wanting to vote. Doesn't sound like it's JUST about past voting habits here. But who knows? They don't publish the way they screen, from what I can tell. I'm only going by the constant refrain from pollsters that says likely voters favor the GOP because of their greater enthusiasm.

[vaberella]

2. What the fuck is going on in my state?! Cuomo please. I can't believe Paladino made it this far.

The only positive is that I know Cuomo knows how to play dirty.

[WI_DEM]

4. I wouldn't get overly excited. This is the only poll out there showing Cuomo in single digits

all the others have him leading by double digits.

[vaberella]

5. good good. I'm freaked by this Paladino guyl..seriously freaked. n/t

[saltpoint]

7. Very good judgment on your part, vaberella.

Because Paladino is Bad News in a big red wagon.

It would be an awfully good time for New York State Democrats to rally behind Andrew Cuomo.

[vaberella]

14. My family is all over it.

My mum is still upset that Andrew Cuomo's dad never rand for President. I think there has been only three Mayor's my family has hated...Koch (who we mock), Guilianni (mainly because you didn't want to be Black and walk the streets during his run), and Bloomberg (cause we can't get rid of him). The favorites---Dickins (although my family felt bad for the poor geezer). But Governor Cuomo was coveted to be a Senator, Commissioner, Mayor and PResident---if my mum could have multiples of him she'd be happy.

[SnakeEyes]

16. But this poll is the most recent

And uses the likely voters model. Going to have to wait for new polls from others to determine if this is an outlier.

[sharp_stick]

6. It's also a bounce poll

taken with their strange likely voter index which seems to be giving a pretty high number of pukes it was bound to show the nutcase from Niagara with a decent number.

With a favorable/unfavorable of 36/31 there is no way in hell that he's going to be within single digits come election day.

This poll was a waste of time for everyone involved.

[WI_DEM]

8. I think a lot of pollsters are going to be in for a surprise (I hope) on election day. They are

assuming because the GOP seems more enthusiastic that they will turn out in far greater numbers. I think there will be lots of Democrats who may not be overly enthusiastic but who don't want a nutty GOP congress who will go to the polls and vote.

[sharp_stick]

10. I hope so

I think the pukes have a pretty decent enthusiasm advantage but I don't think it's as deep as a lot of pollsters seem to think.

[SnakeEyes]

18. "strange likely voter"?

There is nothing strange about likely voter polls. Polls using likely voter samples are more accurate than registered voter polls. Many people are registered and don't vote. Scientific studies show those that state they are likely to vote tend to vote and those that have voted in the past are likely to vote again. Polling isn't just random voodoo and guessing. It is a science. Not an exact science mind you but there is a science to it.

[Mass]

21. Yes, but each polling shop have their own model for likely voters, which explains why polls

give so different results. Until election day, there is no way to know which pollster has the best model for this year.

[catgirl]

9. I don't believe this poll

Paladino is the wackiest of the wackos running today.

[EC]

11. Man this guy makes the tea people look like a bunch

of pervs...(Palindino I mean...the crazy guy)



The horse on women E-mail should have been enough to kill his run...

[Robbins]

12. Don't geet too worried

Quinnipiac hasn't been great with polling this year.No way Cuomo with a 51 favorable rating IS barely leading Paladino who only
has a 36 percent favorable rating.

I trust PPP more.And even them are assuming more Republicans up in Likely voters.

And what some forget Is back In 1998 many assumed because of the CLinton scandal things were going to be bad for Democrats.Many
were shocked when Schumer won the senate race In New York for example.

[SnakeEyes]

19. PPP hasn't polled this race yet.

[theothersnippywshrub]

13. The Bestiality Wing of the Republican Party must be larger than anyone thought. n/t

[FrenchieCat]

17. This smells.....

Like Paladino's stink bomb!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

20. This poll cannot be true! How the hell is it so close? I know for a fact that this poll has to be

baseless. I'm just surprise that it's Quinnipiac.

[Marsala]

22. Statistical fluctuations happen

This is probably just one of those polls that is off by a much larger than average amount.