Charlie Cook: A Turning Point For Democrats?

[Joanne98]

It's too early to say for sure, but it's possible that the Republican wave has subsided.
by Charlie Cook

Saturday, July 31, 2010



Very few people watch political polls more closely than I do. (Whether that's a good thing or suggests that I'm slightly neurotic is up for debate.) When you monitor surveys incessantly, you occasionally see results that you're unsure how to interpret. You don't know whether they signal a key turning point in public opinion or whether they're just a hiccup, a passing blip. Or perhaps the odd results are from an outlier poll, a statistical anomaly that is the political equivalent of a false positive medical test.

We're currently experiencing one of those periods of uncertainty. One interpretation of recent results is that the momentum in this critical midterm election has shifted and the Republican wave has subsided. Another interpretation is that it's too soon to tell whether much has changed at all.

For the weeks of July 12-18 and July 19-25, the Gallup Organization's weekly aggregation of daily tracking polls showed Democrats ahead among all registered voters on the generic congressional ballot test question by 6 points (49 percent to 43 percent) and 4 points (48 percent to 44 percent), respectively. Each poll canvassed more than 1,500 registered voters nationwide. For the uninitiated, the generic ballot test question tries to approximate what the popular two-party vote will be nationwide and, over time, it has closely corresponded to the outcome on Election Day.


If Democrats are running 4 or 5 points ahead among registered voters, it would mean a very, very close contest for control of the House.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cookreport.php

I think this happened because they blocked unemployment benefits.

[joeybee12]

1. That and the candidates the Repukes are running are all criminally insane...KNR

[SpiralHawk]

2. That would be THE oil & crony soaked Republicon wave

of FAILED economic policies, hate-driven conquer-and-divide strategeries pitted against America, and an ongoing sideshow fantastically imaginatively Perverse Family Pharisee Values.

[KingFlorez]

3. They peaked to early and then overplayed their hand

If you look at polling in individual races, the GOP is under performing in places where they need wins.

[Hansel]

17. +1 nt

[BlueIdaho]

4. Generic vs Real Candidates?

I wonder if having real names and personalities instead of generic republicans is also making a difference in the polls. It's one thing to vote for a generic republican against Harry Reid, it's another to vote for Sharon Angle.

[Andy823]

5. Attack, attack, attack!

This is what the democrats need to do, and keep it up till the elections! Yes, I think blocking the unemployment extension did not help them at all, and now they are blocking loans to small business's. That along with their apology to BP, fighting any kind of added regulations for the oil industry, trying to block wall street reform, and all the insane comments by the republicans about the unemployed being lazy and spending their money on drugs and alcohol, and of course the fact they want to keep the Bush tax cuts for the rich, need to be used by the democrats! Get on TV every chance they can, come up with add using all this, and drive it home day after day to the public just who is is the republicans are trying to help, not the average americans, but big corporations and the rich.

The republicans are making it pretty easy for democrats to use what they have done, said, and how they have voted to their advantage. All the democrats have to do is run clip after clip of them doing what they do so well, obstructing things! That and the fact that the teabaggers are not happy that republicans are using them to do their dirty work, and then instead of backing teabagger candidates they are backing the same republicans who are in office and trying to get re-elected, are all going to work for the democrats if they take advantage of it! Go on the offense and force republicans to defend themselves, turn the tables on them and keep on hammering at them day after day, it will work!

[Yavin4]

6. The Republicans Have Not Offered Any Concrete Solutions

For the past year and a half, the media has allowed them to heckle Obama and the Dems without offering a shred of a plan of their own. The people are not being as easy on the Repubs and the media has been.

Also, I agree with the OP, their blocking of extensions of UE has scared many Americans. People know that if the Republicans take control of congress then they won't get their UE extended.

[Sheepshank]

7. well there's a few million votes right there

...unfortunately.

And before anyone misunderstands, I wish the vote were there for reasons other than because they fear the loss of unemployment bennies. I wish they had jobs!

[Yavin4]

8. Well, If You're UE and You're Relying on UE Bennies

Then you'd better vote for a Dem or you may be the dumbest person on earth.

[DCBob]

9. I think this started happening after finreg passed and when the oil gusher was first capped..

and then re-enforced with UE benes passing.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

10. Good to hear

They've been busy doing nothing but obstructing and heckling President Obama and, when forced to present *real* plans, they've been totally laughable- so much so that nobody in the corporate media is even taking them seriously and certainly not like they did the Contract For (On) America back in 1994. And yet, despite all of this and some of the new polling, I'm certain that the corporate media whores will stubbornly persist in repeating the meme that 2010 is going to be as much of a disaster for President Obama and the Democratic Party as 1994 was for then-President Clinton.
However, with the "teabaggers" either forcing otherwise mildly *sensible* Republican candidates to pander to them or actually fielding candidates, I fail to see how this year is going to be a wash out for the Democrats. Back in 1994, the Republicans were still fairly moderate and hadn't gone completely insane yet. Additionally, they hadn't controlled Congress for decades so I suspect that some people voted for them thinking that some positive change would come out of it (plus the Republicans REALLY ginned up hatred and anger at/about the Clintons).
Now that they have recently owned Congress for 12 years and presided over a disastrous 8 years in the WH, people know more about what they're about and, even after two years of relentless propaganda-spewing, attempts at historical revisionism, and Obama-bashing, their favorability ratings have barely budged from where they were during the past two election cycles. It seems hard to believe that a party suffering with such serious polling and other problems could waltz right in and take back Congress, especially not if the Democratic Party puts up a good fight (and decent candidates).

[craigmatic]

11. Cook has been on this nonesense all year long saying the republicans will win.

I doubt it because they don't really have a message besides calling everything Obama does socialism.

[Cosmocat]

13. It really is friggin pathetic ...

The Dems have what, a margin where it would take a 40 seat swing to lose the house?

The Rs had less than a 6 point lead in polling, and it was excited reports that the dems were likely to lose the house ...

The Rs have a greater lead now, and it is is possible, with a 6 point polling lead overall, that they JUST MIGHT be able to hold a 40 seat majority ...

Oh, and it is too soon to tell if this will hold up or the Rs will once again have the Ds dead to rights ...

STFU already ... The Dems are overextended in republican districts and in an mid terms election wihtout the presidency at stake, they are going ot lose some of those seats ... Been saying that since they got them ...

But, the over and under here has been about 20 seats all along ...

Just more of the media marching orders - dems on the run, reps on the prowl ...

[LiberalFighter]

12. So many factors some not a factor in previous elections or to the same degree.

Tea Party

Tier 3 candidates on the Republican tickets.

----

And voters hearing and seeing those candidates too soon before the election.

[budkin]

14. Please let this be the case.

[DCBob]

15. I think Cook is right on here.. something has changed..

almost all Dem candidates are doing better in the polls in the past few weeks. It does feel like the tide has turned.

[SunsetDreams]

18. I sure hope so.

It's high time the American public see through the Party of No.

[Phx_Dem]

16. As usual, Repukes shoot their wad too early and miscalculate how

their obstruction of everyfuckingthing will play with voters. Blocking small business lending was a huge mistake, in addition to blocking unemployment benefits.