May. 4 2010 - 3:22 pm
4 reasons Democrats will hold the House
By MARK STRICHERZ
snip//
But the chances that this witches’ brew will doom the party this fall strikes me as unlikely. Barring a national calamity or Republican implosion, Democrats will likely hold on. Think about it. Democrats would need to lose 40 House seats to relinquish the majority, a large number by anyone’s estimation. Losing that many seats in an election cycle takes more than a lousy economy, wide distrust of Congress, and unpopular legislation. Losing that many seats takes incompetent or pathetic party leadership.
And whatever you might say about Obama, Reid, and Pelosi, they are not politically incompetent.snip//
Democratic Party leaders have not committed any large self-inflicted wounds:
Certainly they have been tempted to do so. On cultural issues, their base sought indirect federal funding of abortion without limit and seeks to make D.C. a state while keeping the district’s restrictive gun-control laws and to overturn the military’s ban on gays serving openly. But leadership stepped in and have squelched those possibilities. Democratic cultural conservatives would have more reason bolt the party in November, while Republican cultural conservatives will have less reason to turn out to vote.
As for potential scandals, Democratic leaders have dampened those. They could have let Rep. Charles Rangel keep his seat as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. They could have defended Rep. Eric Massa as a wayward or misunderstood politician. Instead, heeding the advice of party moderates, they kicked Rangel to the sidelines; and heeding common sense, they booted Massa.
Democratic leaders have helped themselves:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has outraised and outspent its GOP counterpart. You didn’t read that wrong. The DCCC has bested the RCCC. For all of House Democrats’ political woes, they are still raking in the cash, or comparatively so. The Dems’ cash advantage will come in handy. Political scientists Alan Abramowitz, Matthew Gunning, and Brad Gunning found that the high cost of political campaigns was one of the two key reasons that the number of competitive congressional seats over the past four decades had declined.
The GOP has helped Democrats:
The Memphis Grizzlies’ trade of Kwame Brown to the Los Angeles Lakers for Pau Gasol may be the greatest gift one opponent has bestowed upon another.. Arizona’s recent law that seeks to clamp down on illegal immigration was not as big of a donation, but it’s in the conversation. Yes, Arizona’s law enjoys the support of most Americans, but few voters will head to the polls to express their pleasure with Arizona for doing so. Instead, Hispanics and more than a few white liberals will come out to register their distinct unpleasure with Arizona.
Democratic constituencies are weakened but not demoralized:
Young people, blacks, and single females perhaps are far less likely to vote in mid-term elections. But the party’s white upper-class voters aren’t. According to Gallup, highly educated voters are rarin’ to go to the polls. And unlike in 1994, when Democrats could not even put health care reform up for a vote, the party’s educated, suburban voters have little reason to be deflated this time around.
more...
http://trueslant.com/markstricherz/2010/05/04/4-reasons-democrats-will-hold-the-house/
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