President Obama Not Losing Independents

[cal04]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/11/23/obama_not_losing_independents.html
Charles Franklin notes there have been several articles about President Obama losing support among independents.

"But support for Obama has not plummeted among independents, and that needs to be clarified before it becomes erroneous conventional wisdom... Claims of abandonment of Obama by independents (or lib-Dems or con-Dems) are substantially exaggerated over the past three months. Significant decline from May through August, yes indeed among Inds and Reps, but that trend halted in August."

Obama and Independents
(http://www.pollster.com/blogs/obama_and_indepedents.php

[DJ13]

1. If independents are the moderate former Republicans many think

Why would they stop supporting him?

[struggle4progress]

4. Looks like Republican moderates, who supported McCain, have become increasingly embarrassed by the

GOP and have started to call themselves "independents". These former GOPers, by becoming "independent," diluted support for Obama in the "independent" group. Meanwhile, by leaving the GOP, they left the GOP more extreme.

Here's a simple numerical model:

I independents originally support Obama at a rate i
R = Rm + Re Republicans originally support Obama at rates r, rm, and re
where r = (rm*Rm + re*Re)/(Rm + Re)

Then Rm Republican moderates re-identify as independents
The new independents are I2 = I + Rm in number and support Obama at rate i2 = (i*I + rm*Rm)/(I + Rm)
The remaining extreme Republicans are Re in number and support Obama at rate re

If i > rm > re originally, then i > i2 > rm > r > re
So this political realignment causes "support for Obama" to drop among both "independents" and "moderates"
But it doesn't mean anything about overall support

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. Exactly. There's a control lacking in these polls.

In order to show a true loss of Independent support since the 2008 election only those respondents who viewed themselves as Independents then should be tallied. If someone was a Republican who voted for McCain but since became an Independent, their addition to the Independent ranks does not change how they felt about Obama all along if they still disapprove of him now, it just changes the Independent stats.

[FiveGoodMen]

2. Which means that no one anywhere will stand up for a progressive agenda.

[Cha]

3. The corporatemediawhores would

have us believe that.

[branders seine]

5. who could possibly be "independent" in America.

Obama has lost the left. Entirely.

[4lbs]

6. He's holding steady with Dems, and mostly with Independents. He's dropped 20 points among Repubs

and that seems to be why he's down 8 or 9 overall from February.

[stray cat]

7. How is that not a decrease?

[Clio the Leo]

8. I saw a former coworker of mine last night.....

.... she said, "I'm not sure about your boy, I've been seeing things on the news....." "Which station?" I asked her because we'd had the whole Fox News debate before. "I dunno, just different places."

I quickly pointed out that she was NEVER sure about "my boy" and changed the subject. ;)

I think she probably voted for him, but only because she came to that determination when she realized her side was offering a Presidential doomsday machine in heels.

And that's where the the poll numbers are dropping ..... the center right folks.


....... and the far left! lol

[FiveGoodMen]

10. Are the people who don't want to spend every penny we've got accomplishing nothing

in Afghanistan...are those people "and the far left! lol"

I guess as long as you don't have any principles it's easy to back your guy.

[Arkana]

9. Too late. It's conventional wisdom now, making it true in the minds of every

lazy POS mainstream media figure.