It's Chile's turn, and outsider throws election wide open

[rabs]

The election appears certain to go to a runoff, but all of a sudden there is a wild card who will likely determine who will sit in La Moneda the next four years. He is known as MEO, a former Socialist who is running as an Independent. He has great "arraste" (pull) among younger Chileans born after the 1973 coup, who are a large chunk of the population now.

Reading his latest speeches this week, MEO thinks he may even come out ahead of Frei and beat Piñera in a runoff. Long shot, but stranger things have happened.

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From left: Frei, MEO, Arrate and Piñera

From BBC

Until a few months ago, Chile's presidential election looked like it would be a straightforward and rather uninspiring contest between two seasoned political campaigners - Eduardo Frei and Sebastian Pinera.

Mr Frei is a former president from the governing centre-left coalition, while Mr Pinera is a billionaire businessman hoping to take Chile rightwards.

Both are in their 60s, both are well-known to the electorate and neither could be described as particularly charismatic.

Then, up stepped Marco Enriquez-Ominami. A hyperactive 36-year-old filmmaker with only a few years of political experience under his belt and no party affiliation, no-one gave him a chance when he announced his candidacy.

Snip
His father, Miguel Enriquez, was the closest thing Chile has to a Che Guevara - a rebel leader who died in a gun battle with the forces of late General Augusto Pinochet in 1974.

Marco was one year old at the time, and already in exile. He and his mother had fled Pinochet's coup the previous year to live in Paris.

It was only in 1986 that MEO returned to Chile. For years, he says, he refused to sing the Chilean national anthem because he associated it with the state that killed his father.


More:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8389000.stm

----------------------------------------------------
MEO's biological father, Miguel Enríquez.


Miguel Enríquez Espinosa (1944-1974) was a Chilean doctor and a leader of the MIR (Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria, or Movement of the Revolutionary Left), a Marxist guerrilla organization. He was a founder of the group, which supported the reforms of Salvador Allende administration (1970-1973). Later, it fought against the Augusto Pinochet Dictatorship. Enríquez’ location was betrayed to Chilean security agents in 1974 and he was killed in a shootout.

(Edit to correct name of Piñera)

[Judi Lynn]

1. You could have knocked us over with a feather! Who could have expected this developement?

This is the first time I've hear his name, will be so interested in seeing how it goes for this young candidate. It was looking so bleak, considering the articles which insinuated Chile was veering toward the right. Of course, the media in Chile is so dominated by the right, anyway, it seems.

If there's a chance this guy, or Frei, etc. can get elected rather than Pinera, it would be wonderful.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com.nyud.net:8090/2500/4004717153_320f3a532f.jpg http://fotos.noticias24.com.nyud.net:8090/fotosWeb/agencia2_2009-10-21_1256100787.orig.jpg
The comparison to Che Guevara sounds so appropriate. Amazing. I'm glad to have heard about this man who fought against absolute evil.

[Braulio]

8. But the right leaning candidate looks ahead in the polls, right?

Seems to me that left wing candidate will only split the left wing vote and give the elections to the right leaning candidate.

[Judi Lynn]

2. Any guesses whom Michelle Bachelet will endorse? n/t

[rabs]

3. Michelle has endorsed Frei

but it will not prevent the runoff. MEO is going to be the kingmaker and there already have been meetings between both sides to come up with a strategy for the runoff.

Leave you tonight with some images of Chile.(Gads, I really miss it !!)

http://www.visit-chile.org/index.php?lang=eng

(put the cursor on the photos and the captions go away.)

[Judi Lynn]

4. So beautiful. The image of Santiago was unbelievable!

It's easy to see why German people have been attracted to Chile. It would remind them of the most beautiful parts of Germany, Austria, no doubt.

I'm prompted to spend some time looking for more photos of Chile online when I get some time.

Can understand why you loved living there. Breathtaking.

[Peace Patriot]

5. Hallelujah! The most wonderful thing about democracy is its WILDNESS. You never know

what unkempt shoots of beauty, life, love and good government are going to spring up. That's why the corpo-fascists produce entities like Monsanto and Diebold--to remove wildness from earth's garden and to destroy the wild element in democracy--the redemptive element, the ability to change. The corpo-fascists produce unnatural monoculture and predictable and deadly dullness. True democracy, on the other hand, is based on the principle of nature's astonishing variety, and its ever-evolving solutions to life's problems.

Thus a wild shoot like MEO, exiled in the harshest of conditions as a babe, but protected by that wild element, mother love--and now "a hyperactive 36-year-old filmmaker with only a few years of political experience under his belt and no party affiliation" can suddenly spring up to foil all the corpo-fascist control plans, here and there.

I love it! I love DEMOCRACY! TRUE democracy, that is.

:thumbsup:

[ChangoLoa]

6. And la Bachelet endorsed a Demo-Cristian

Why doesn't she like MEO? It looks like the socialists are going to stay forever in La Concertacion..

[Judi Lynn]

7. CHILEAN ELECTION COUNTDOWN BEGINS

CHILEAN ELECTION COUNTDOWN BEGINS

SANTIAGO, CHILE, Dec 9 (NNN-PRENSA LATINA) – Any electoral propaganda activity must end as of tomorrow night, when a 72-hour countdown for the Chilean general elections on Sun Dec 13 will begin.

Also as of tomorrow night, any public protest will be banned, with Armed Forces and Carabineros (Police) assuming public order protection, in line with Electoral Service (SERVEL) regulations.

Yesterday all four candidates closed their respective campaigns after intensive campaign activity, including appearances in the media and flooding cities and rural areas with posters.

Presidential hopefuls vying to succeed Michelle Bachelet on March 10 include Eduardo Frei, from the ruling party, right wing Sebastian Pinera, independent Marco Enriquez-Ominami and left wing Jorge Arrate.

More:
http://world.brunei.fm/2009/12/09/chilean-election-countdown-begins/

[rabs]

9. More background on the candidates

Final poll before the Sunday elections published yesterday shows Piñera leading both Frei and MEO comfortably, but not enough to avoid having to go to a runoff in January.

The poll showed Frei leading MEO by more than 10 points but the MEO people insist that those figures do not reflect reality. Article today in Santiago media said internal polling figures by the MEO team indicted that MEO may even beat Frei :shrug: and go to the runoff against Piñera.

---------------------------------

-- Piñera: Richest man in Chile, a billionaire; LAN Chile Airlines, credit card monopoly in the 1980/90s, huge real estate dealings and banks, among numerous other businesses. Former member of the Christian Democratic Party who moved over to National Renovation Party -- a more moderate offshoot of the UDI (Independent Union Party). The UDI is comprised of hard-core fascists and pinochetistas who have lined up behind Piñera.

Piñera has plenty of negative baggage. In 1982 he was charged with massive bank fraud and went underground for 24 days when an arrest order was issued. The pinochet Supreme Court later dropped the charges. He was found to have falsified his political resume, saying he had been a professor at Harvard, when he had only been a teaching assistant.

More recently he purchased of more than 300,000 acres of pristine rain forest on the island of Chile in the south of Chile. The indigenous natives of the region say the land belongs to them. He has said that he wants to make Chile a "tourism paradise" for foreign tourists, which is understandable because of his LAN-Chile holdings.

There was a video today in La Nacion newspaper showing Piñera publicly defending Pinochet when the dictator was under arrest in London. This week he also downplayed the findings in the assassination of Eduardo Frei under the dictatorship, saying the evidence was inconclusive. Both apparently designed to remind Chileans of his support of Pinochet (though most over the age of 50 need no reminders).

--------------------------

-- Frei. A dour sourpuss, he was probably the worst candidate the "Concertacion" could have chosen because a dose of "Concertacion fatigue" has settled in after 20 years of rule. His previous presidency (before Bachelet) was unimpressive. Like Piñera, Frei is seen by many younger Chileans as a relic of the pinochet era.

Poll showed that Piñera would beat him in a second round. The legal ruling this week that his father was assassinated is not expected to give him any sizable boost. Extreme right-wing factions cannot stand him because they still blame the Christian Democrats for Allende's election victory in 1970.

-----------------------

MEO. I had been watching this guy for the past several months and like many others, was astounded at his rise in popularity. The main rap against him is that he is too inexperienced to be president, but then so was Michelle Bachelet (who is going out with an amazing approval rate hovering around 80 percent). He started out in the Socialist Party but is running as an Independent. He has been a member of the national Chamber of Deputies for few years, which is the sum total of his political experience.

The amazing thing is that he does not have a political party behind him (as do Piñera, Frei and Arrate) yet he has soared in support. When he announced for the presidency, he started out with one percent support. If he does not beat Frei, the Concertacion will come knocking at his door for his votes in the runoff. At 36 years, he appeals to younger Chileans who do not identify with the pinochet-era politicians and he is in the catbird's seat at the moment.

----------------------------

Arrate: Another throwback to the pinochet era, running as the candidate of the Communist Party of Chile (yes, it still exists) and other minor, extreme left factions. He was forced to live in exile for years after the golpe of 1973. His support is small, in mid-range single digits, but that could be important for the Concertacion in a close runoff. Arrate already has indicated that he will support the Concertacion candidate because Piñera must not be allowed to bring the right into power again.

-----------------

An odd fact about the elections: Two of the candidates, Frei and MEO, both had their fathers killed by the pinochet regime and Arrate had to flee to exile in Europe to survive.

How things have changed.

-30-

[Judi Lynn]

10. Fantastic information you've delivered, rabs. Will be hoping so much Sunday will go well.

So glad you've been observing, and keeping so informed. You've helped us bridge the gap in our corporate media and reality.

[DutchLiberal]

11. The BBC mentions run-offs on January 17; how come?

You say the elections take place Sunday December 13.

[Judi Lynn]

12. It's because of multiple party elections, I believe. If one candidate wins more

than an established percent of the vote (I'm not certain what that number is, sorry) he, or she, would win immediately this Sunday. If not, there's to be a run-off of the top two candidates.

Probably a DU poster here who's lived there, if he sees your question, will answer more completely than I did, but that seems to be the pattern in various Latin American countries.

[rabs]

13. No candidate has the necessary 50 percent plus one vote to win in the first round

So a runoff will be held in January.

------------------------------


Chile’s December 13 presidential vote may come down to a competition between a wealthy businessman and an ex-president. But a young independent candidate has shaken up the race. If forecasts are correct, the election will mark the first time in two decades that a candidate from the center-left Concertación coalition—in power since the return of democracy in 1990—will not finish first in the initial round of elections.

Polls show that conservative candidate Sebastián Piñera of the opposition National Renewal Party (RN) leads the December vote with 44 percent, placing him 13 points ahead of former President Eduardo Frei of the Concertación.

With no candidate expected to win the requisite 50 percent-plus-one of the vote, a January 17 runoff election is likely. However, Piñeras’ challenger in the runoff is yet to be determined, given that independent candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami has split the center-left’s following, attracting Chileans dissatisfied with the country’s conventional parties. According to a video commentary by New York University Professor Patricio Navia, if Enríquez-Ominami is able to beat Frei in the first round of voting, he could pose a challenge to Piñera in the runoff.

Pretty good overview of the election here:

http://www.as-coa.org/article.php?id=2073

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All campaigning ended Thursday night to give Chileans time to reflect. Voting is mandatory, but those who are not able to vote because of illness, is 200 kilometers from one's voting precinct, or any other emergency must report to the nearest Carabinero police station to get a legal excuse. Fines for not voting can reach up to 200 dollars (in Chilean currency).

Chile is one of the countries in Latin America in which national elections are held on a Sunday to maximize voting and which avoids complications for millions who must work on weekdays. It is a national holiday so there are no excuses that one had to work.

Families tend to vote in the mornings, then get together for outdoor "asado" cookouts (it is late Spring in the Southern Hemisphere) with excellent Chilean wines to await the results. It is not unsual for families to have members who are diehard rightwing pinochetistas, Socialists, Christian Democrats, Communists, and in this particular election, MEO Independents.

It makes for some lively family discussions, arguments and sometimes family fisticuffs.

[DutchLiberal]

16. Thanks, that explains it all.

I'm not in favor of mandatory voting, by the way. It often leads to people who don't want to vote, to vote for a "protest party". That's one of the reasons why in Belgium, where voting also is mandatory, the extreme-right Vlaams Belang has become a big player. Because a lot of people who resented having to vote, then voted for Vlaams Belang out of "protest", while they had stayed home had it not been mandatory.

[Judi Lynn]

17. I looked for his photo, out of curiosity. Found an odd one:

http://ifps-images.s3.amazonaws.com.nyud.net:8090/wp-content/uploads/dewinther-101large.jpg

Belang, in the middle, holding the drawing of someone
with a bomb in place of a turban. Not totally mature!
Didn't know you had compulsory voting, Dutch Liberal. I can see why people would resent it.

[DutchLiberal]

25. There's a long story behind that photo...

The cartoon that Filip DeWinter (leader of the 'Vlaams Belang'-party, second from the left) is holding, has caused a lot of controversy a year or two ago. It first appeared in a Danish newspaper, as part of a series of cartoons about Islam. A radical Danish imam then took the cartoons (and two which didn't appear in the paper) with him to some Middle Eastern countries. Soon, violent mass demonstrations erupted in those countries, Danish embassies were being attacked and Danish products were being boycotted. The cartoonists received death threats. The Danish prime-minister Anders Fog Rasmussen (now Secretary-General of NATO) refused to apologize for the cartoons, citing freedom of the press in Denmark.

The 'Vlaams Belang' is an extreme-right nationalist party in Belgium, which was previously known as 'Vlaams Blok', but under that name, the party was convicted by a Belgian court for inciting and spreading hatred against immigrants/foreigners/muslims. All the other parties in Belgium have agree never to form a coalition with the 'Vlaams Belang', a policy which is known as the 'cordon sanitaire' and which has helped the party grow over the years, playing the role of the underdog. Recently, infighting is tearing the party apart.

I'm from The Netherlands, by the way, were we don't have compulsory voting, thankfully.

[dipsydoodle]

14. Tycoon Pinera favourite in Chile presidential election

Chile is voting for a new president, with opinion polls suggesting billionaire Sebastian Pinera is the frontrunner.

The centre-right businessman is one of four men vying for the job.

He is up against three left and centre-left candidates - Eduardo Frei, Marco Enriquez-Ominami and Jorge Arrate.

BBC correspondents say the signs are that the country could be about to shift to the right, after 20 years of centre-left rule.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8410345.stm

They never seem to learn. :shrug:

[Braulio]

15. One euro on the right wing candidate

I bet one euro on the right wing candidate. :-)

[VanW]

18. Current projection from BioBio Radio:

Piñera 44%
Frei 29%
MEO 20%
Arrate 6%


Looks like there will be a runoff between Piñera and Frei.

[Judi Lynn]

19. Thanks for the update! Hope the leftist votes consolidated will win the run-off. n/t

[VanW]

20. Yeah, I do too but it'll be close.

Latest projection:

Piñera 44%
Frei 32%
MEO 17%
Arrate 5%


Frei has gained in a late wave, taking votes from MEO. A lot of very cynical commentary on Twitter. Apparently many young people are so disillusioned that they refused to register to vote.

[VanW]

21. An interesting Chilean blog:

http://robertlfunk.blogspot.com/

Mostly in English.

[VanW]

22. from that blog:

Piñera: 44.2%
Frei: 30.5%
MEO: 19.4%
Arrate: 5.9%

"This looks increasingly insurmountable for Frei (for the runoff). He would have to win all of Arrate and three quarters of MEO voters. Very tough."



Too bad. MEO's going to get the Nader treatment.

[Downwinder]

23. I can't see

Piñera picking up any MEO or Arrate vote.

[VanW]

24. I would hope not

but I don't know enough about Chilean politics to say.


I thought this was interesting:

"Chileans also elected 120 representatives and half of the 38 senators on Sunday.

Thanks to Arrate's run, Communists will have congressional seats for the first time since Pinochet's 1973 coup.
Socialist Rep. Isabel Allende, daughter of ousted President Salvador Allende, was voted into the Senate. But Pinochet's grandson, Rodrigo Garcia Pinochet, lost his outsider run for a congressional seat representing the upscale suburb of Las Condes."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091214/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_chile_election

LOL!