Reports of a Deal in Honduras Are Premature

[Downwinder]

http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/3567/reports-deal-honduras-are-premature

[Judi Lynn]

1. Always so good to hear from Pepe Lobo, or not.

Can you imagine this man as a serious candidate ANYWHERE?

http://narcosphere.narconews.com.nyud.net:8090/userfiles/hillaryVisit0609_02.jpg.jpeg
Good grief!

[Bacchus39]

3. what's wrong with him? he couldn't be worse than Zelaya

Hondurans will choose the next president.

[Peace Patriot]

7. Yeah, well, Zelaya has a 67% approval rating. So Hondurans think quite well of him.

And it is very much an interesting question why they would also be giving approval to a rightwing candidate. See below.

[Bacchus39]

11. he should remain out of power then, his numbers will keep going up

governing the country didn't seem to go to well for him.

[Braulio]

2. I hope it works out for them

Hopefully this deal will work out, then Zelaya can return, serve over the holidays, hand over, and go home. The Zelaya presidency will be over, and they can go back to growing bananas.

[Peace Patriot]

4. Very useful info here--as always, from Al Giordano. He breaks down the Congress approval thing,

by the numbers, and by shrewd analysis. Congress will likely vote to restore Zelaya. And it is in the Nationalist Party candidate's interest to facilitate the deal so that the election will receive international approval. Giordano says the Nationalist candidate is ahead in the polls and wants the election to be accepted. He says that where the problem may come--and the golpistas are already lying about this!--is this business of the Supreme Court 'permitting' the Congress to restore Zelaya. Giordano (and Zelaya spokespeople) are saying that there is no such requirement in the deal they signed. The golpistas say there is. This could hold up restoring Zelaya for months--to the end of the term that they have robbed him of.

Regarding the polls...

As I understand it, the Nationalists are to the right, the Liberal Party (Zelaya's party) to the left, but (except for Zelaya himself), it's a Tweedle-Dee/Tweedle-Dum political spectrum, as here. One puzzle I have is, WHY would the Honduran people favor the right--after they just did this brutal coup? The answer may be that it was the Liberal Party (Zelaya's own party) that led the coup. People may want to punish them for it. It will purge the government of Liberal Party traitors (coup supporters). With a clean slate, maybe they will be able to reform the Liberal Party--make it into a truly representative party. (This would be a good project for Zelaya, when his term is over in January.)

On the other hand, will they be likely to retain or restore Zelaya reforms, such as raising the minimum wage, with the rightwing party in office? And why wouldn't Honduran voters be shunning both of these wretched "ten families" political tools (the Pukes and the Blue Dogs) and flock to the lesser known leftist candidates (I think there is at least one running for president, and he is anti-coup and aligned with Zelaya, whereas T-Dee and T-Dum both toadied to the Junta)? How does a violent military coup result in a rightwing candidate winning? Are the opinion polls inaccurate (because of conditions of severe repression), or rigged? Is this Supreme Court ploy--a further delay--an election-rigging delay?

Also, I wonder if Zelaya has endorsed--or will endorse--the Liberal candidate. Media and civil rights conditions have been such that he can only communicate to the people by word of mouth. If things go well, he will now have a bigger trumpet. Will he use it to support his party's candidate (and let bygones be bygones regarding the coup, in that respect). Zelaya is hugely popular in Honduras (stratospheric numbers--nearly 70%), so what he says and does about the election will carry considerable weight. He could "save" the Liberal candidate. Maybe that would be a smart thing to do. Or maybe he's too fed up, and will form a new party.

This election should have been put off for four months--and Zelaya restored to office during that time--the time that was lost--for people to be able to absorb what has happened in conditions of freedom and a free press, for the left to be able to recover after severe repression, and for new candidates to emerge and be nominated. As always, the right has money and the people have time. With time, the people can overcome the power of money. (That's why at least two presidential terms are important, and unlimited terms is the most democratic--as with our own FDR.) John McCain has poured $43 million US taxpayer dollars into rightwing political groups in Honduras. Only rightwing TV/radio has been allowed to broadcast. These are NOT fair conditions. If Obama/Clinton could turn things around so quickly--with economic hammers--why didn't they turn things around toward better fairness? And sooner?

[Bacchus39]

5. no kidding. Zelaya and Mitcheletti are from the same party

you just answered your own questions. why would Hondurans vote for the party of Zelaya and Mitcheletti????????????

[Peace Patriot]

6. Zelaya is VERY popular and Micheletti is very UNpopular, according to recent polls,

so people ARE distinguishing between Zelaya and the Liberal Party (and its coupsters). The breakdown is approx 70/30 (pro-Zelaya, anti-Mitcheletti).

But polls are also saying that the Nationalist Party candidate is ahead. This is why I posited that the voters may want to punish the Liberal Party for betraying Zelaya--NOT punish Zelaya! They very much want Zelaya back as president.

You falsely group Z and M together--and conclude that voters disapprove them both, and therefore want to punish the Liberal Party. But Z and M are not at all the same in peoples' minds.

Anyway, that's what the polls are saying. So Zelaya DOES have the potential ability to "rescue" the Liberal Party candidate. I don't think he's endorsed the Liberal candidate--yet--or had anything much to do with the election, except that he wanted a political reform initiative on the ballot (an advisory referendum), so they could start doing something about their rotten Constitution and rotten political system. Without reform, the election is pretty meaningless (even aside from its transparency and fairness). So he may not give a damn who wins. And I would imagine that he would be strongly tempted to exit the Liberal Party and start a new reform party.

Your desire to smear Zelaya as somehow associated with, or cause of, the coup, is resulting in your not comprehending the facts, as revealed by polls, and the question I am asking. Zelaya is hugely popular. Will he use that popularity to help the Liberal Party and its candidate, or not? That is what I was asking. Not, how can we blame Zelaya for a violent, Constitution-destroying, murderous, lawless, military coup serving the greedy elite in Honduras and corpo-fascists interests here? Zelaya did not cause this coup. All he wanted was an ADVISORY vote on reform! And Hondurans apparently know this very well.

[Braulio]

8. Zelaya's just a selfish zingamabob

If he had any sense, he would endorse a presidential candidate. I guess he's still dreaming of re-writing the constitution and entrenching himself in power. Fat chance.

[Downwinder]

9. Looks like he is doing pretty well, considering he is "holed up"

in the Brazilian Embassy with no army or police force at his disposal.

Sort of like Saddam who so distrusted his people that he gave them RPGs. Can you imagine a US President allowing us to have RPGs.

[Bacchus39]

10. looking at this accord, there doesn't seem to be anything to prevent the Congress

and the SC from saying "no" to his return. and Zelaya agreed to it.