http://strengthensocialsecurity.org/media/blog/2010/president-obamas-payroll-tax-holiday-could-unravel-social-securityA 2% payroll tax cut, if unfunded from general revenue, doubles the 75-year projected shortfall projected by the actuaries in the 2010 Trustees Report.
Repaying the Social Security trust fund $120 billion each year will be increasingly more difficult in a political environment dominated by debates over federal deficits and debt; this could result in a huge revenue drain to Social Security.
Keeping the payroll tax cut in place but not paying Social Security back will lead to massive benefits cuts, even as the population rapidly ages.
It would make the goal of improving benefits for low-wage workers all the more difficult.
The only other option will be to cut benefits of the middle class. Because only 6% of the work force makes over $106,800 and because the benefit formula is highly progressive, even eliminating the benefits of richer Americans will not make much difference in solvency.
Making up for the $120 billion of lost annual revenue, plus eliminating the already existing long-term shortfall, will require deep cuts in benefits for the middle class and erode its support.