October 19, 2010
By Jonathan Capehart
THE storyline is pretty well established. Republicans will take over the House. And they'll do it because: 1. the party of a first-term president usually loses seats in Congress in the midterm elections; 2. the electorate is angry; and 3. the voters who helped put Barack Obama in the White House probably won't show up at the polls in sufficient numbers to blunt the oncoming tsunami. But it doesn't have to be that way (or perhaps the impending shellacking doesn't have to be as bad as predicted) if black folks come out and vote.
I'm focused on African Americans right now because they are the ones still firmly in President Obama's corner. Gallup puts his approval among blacks at 91 percent. They are also the ones everyone is counting on to stay home because, well, that's what they've done. Blacks are not alone in this. Generally speaking, Americans sit out midterm or off-year elections. But a Sunday New York Times story over the weekend made it clear that an uptick in the black vote this go-round could make the difference in several races: (
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/10/17/us/17blackvotersg.html)
Among the endangered Democrats counting on a substantial black turnout are Representatives Bobby Bright of Alabama, Allen Boyd of Florida, Sanford D. Bishop Jr. and Jim Marshall of Georgia, Frank Kratovil Jr. of Maryland, Travis W. Childers of Mississippi, Steve Driehaus and Betty Sutton of Ohio, John M. Spratt Jr. of South Carolina, Chet Edwards of Texas, and Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello of Virginia.
A large black turnout could influence races to fill open House seats in Arkansas, Delaware and Louisiana, as well as the New Orleans seat held by Representative Anh Cao, a Republican. It could also help Democratic prospects in statewide races in Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri and Ohio . . .President Obama and the Democratic National Committee clearly know this. That's why they are doing their best to get African Americans to the polls two weeks from today . . .
Remember, the storyline of a GOP takeover of the House has taken hold because no one is expecting you to show up at the polls. But imagine the history you could make -- again -- if you defy the critics and do.
read:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/10/my_memo_to_blacks_vote.htmlRace and Beyond: Blacks Could Preserve a Progressive Majority{snip}
“Intriguingly, there were 12 years between the two previous displays of black voting power in midterm elections, and 2010 is 12 years since the last instance,” David Bositis at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies wrote in his analysis. Digging a bit deeper, there are even more striking similarities between then and now:
* The most competitive elections are geographically situated where black voters are most concentrated, as was the case in 1986 and 1998. There are 20 House races where black voters could potentially decide the outcome, including 15 congressional districts in the South. If Democrats retain half of those seats it would be difficult for the GOP to gain the 40 seats needed to regain the majority.
* President Obama is extremely popular with black voters and is under attack from Republican and Tea Party activists. Bositis’s analysis shows that Obama, the first black American elected president, is even more popular in 2010 with black voters (about 80 percent job approval and 95 percent favorable rating) than President Clinton was in 1998 (61 percent job approval and 89 percent favorable rating).
* Black voters are well-positioned to vote because the 2008 presidential election was the first in which black turnout exceeded white turnout, contributing to Obama’s historic victory. Plus, the large number of competitive races in districts with large black populations should lead to increased efforts by Democrats to get-out-the-vote strategies targeted at black voters.
read more:
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/10/rab_101910.html
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