Will Fundraising Be the Best Indicator of Which Incumbents Are in Real Trouble?

[SecularMotion]

"One of the important takeaways from the piece is that if the pattern seen in previous wave elections based fund raising numbers holds up, some incumbent Democrats who have been rated endangered by Rothenberg Political Report or the Cook Political Report might have a much better chance of winning re-election than those ratings would indicate. Notably, Democrats like Alan Grayson (FL-08), Dina Titus (NV-03), and Tom Perriello (VA-05) are all fundraising better than they are polling right now."

http://elections.firedoglake.com/2010/08/05/will-fundraising-be-the-best-indicator-of-which-incumbents-are-in-real-trouble/

[Warpy]

1. It's starting to rub the party's nose in the fact that the DLC is wrong

and that progressives are the real party money makers, not tepid conservative imitations of Republicans.

It seems that in tough times, people don't want business as usual. What a surprise.

[damntexdem]

2. No, the best indicator will be the vote in November.

ALL other measures are only conjectural.

[notesdev]

3. Best indicator I've found is the 45% incumbent favorability threshold

If an incumbent can't poll better than 45% going into an election he's generally toast.