Palin endorsement backfires--Dem gains ground in New Hampshire Senate race

[book_worm]

NH looking more competitive

Kelly Ayotte's seen her appeal to moderate voters crumble in the wake of her endorsement by Sarah Palin and her lead over Paul Hodes has shrunk to its lowest level of any public polling in 2010- she has a 45-42 advantage over him, down from 47-40 in an April PPP poll.

There's not much doubt that the shift in the race is all about Ayotte. Hodes' favorability numbers have seen little change over the last three months. Where 32% of voters saw him positively and 39% negatively in April, now 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 40% with an unfavorable one. But Ayotte's seen a dramatic decline. Her favorability spread of 34/24 in April was the best we've measured for any Republican Senate candidate so far this year but her negatives have risen 15 points since that time while her positives have increased only 2 and she now stands at 36/39.

Most of the movement both in feelings about Ayotte and in the horse race has come with moderate voters. Moderates make up the largest bloc of the New Hampshire electorate at 47%, and Hodes' lead with them has expanded from just 8 points at 47-39 in April to now 21 points at 51-30. Ayotte's favorability with them has gone from +5 at 32/27 to -19 at 27/46.

The Palin endorsement may well be playing a role in this. 51% of voters in the state say they're less likely to back a Palin endorsed candidate to only 26% who say that support would make them more inclined to vote for someone. Among moderates that widens to 65% who say a Palin endorsement would turn them off to 14% who it would make more supportive.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[xultar]

1. Shhhhh oh... they don't read never mind.

:woohoo:

[RedCloud]

2. Come on Palin. Endorse all repugs, Fox, Rush, etc...

[pansypoo53219]

3. and the gnews sputter

butbutbut doesn't america love palin like we do?!?

[Carnage251]

4. Quitters never win

The dems need you in Kentucky sarah!

[tanyev]

5. She's not keeping her powder dry.

[EstimatedProphet]

6. Why, that's terrible!

Dems and Repubs are all exactly the same, so why would anyone want a Dem to win? Far better for a Repub to win, because that'll really show the Dems!

[Geoff R. Casavant]

7. Palin's endorsement has never worked.

Every candidate she has ever endorsed who has eventually won, was usually comfortably ahead in the polls anyway at the time of the endorsement, and usually the margin of victory is slimmer than the margin at the time of endorsement. In other words, if she endorsed a candidate who was ahead 55-45 when she gave her blessing, that candidate would win by a slimmer margin of 51-49, for example.

The other candidates she endorsed, just flat out lost.

[MAcciard]

8. Unfortunately for us, Kelly Ayotte's unpopularity has

less to do with sarah Palin's endorsement, than with the fact that she was a dolt as an attorney general, and did little or nothing for those who filed complaints with her office.