None of the best case scenarios have worked and now the worst case

[Ganja Ninja]

scenarios are being replaced with ever worse ones. Is it time to consider using a nuke yet?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

1. The relief well is what has been proposed since the beginning.

The problem is that "Just wait 2 months while we drill this" is not a satisfactory response. So in the meantime, they're trying everything else.

And in regards to a nuke, I'm going to say "no".

[dipsydoodle]

2. Sure

if want to completely destabilise the methane hydrate layer down there. Feel free.

[Javaman]

6. Very good point.

It's truly amazing how many people here on DU are pushing to nuke this thing.

It's wrong on so many levels, but yours, by and far, is probably the best insight I have read so far.

[dipsydoodle]

7. Plough through this sometime

http://marine.usgs.gov/fact-sheets/gas-hydrates/title.html

:hi:

[Javaman]

10. Thanks for the link.

I have keeping an eye regarding the methane that has been seeping out of the siberian tundra due to global warming.

It scares the hell out of me.

Then I think about the Triassic extinction event 250 million years ago.

when I saw the frozen hydrates on that "top hat" thing that BP tried, it gave me a bit of caution.

But it never once occurred to me the cause and effect of the detonation of an explosive and it's resulting effects on the hydrates.

Sometimes I'm a bit slow. :/

Never the less...

:scared:

[Turbineguy]

3. What we are finding out is that these problems

are not just merely difficult to solve but that they are astonishingly difficult. The only thing left is to keep trying and not give up.

[notesdev]

4. The worser than worst case scenario

is that they DO use a nuke and fuck it up just as badly as all the other things that should have worked.

[Statistical]

5. Relief well. The only proven method to seal blowout. Everything else is simply mitigation.

Australian blowout, tried dozens of strategies ultimately what capped the well was relief well - 4 months later.
Mexican blowout, tried dozens of strategies ultimately what capped the well was relief well - 9 months later.
Iranian blowout, tried dozens of strategies ultimately what capped the well was relief well - 26 months later.

Given relief well is going to take months not weeks or days to drill BP has plenty of time to try longshots and methods to at least reduce amount of oil going into Gulf. Still most likely the flow will continue until relief well intersects main well and floods it with drilling mud.

Relief wells have high chance of success with 2 major drawbacks
1) time - you need to drill a well
2) unlikely to succeed on first drill (Australians took 5 attempts)

[ThomWV]

8. I don't see it that way at all

Each failure has taught the engineers and scientists who are addressing the problem more and each new approach is better informed than its predecessor is another way to look at it.

[KharmaTrain]

9. The Ugly Truth...They Lied...And Still Are

BP and the other oil companies went full speed ahead in drilling as they had 30 plus years of getting their way with the government and the "regulators" who were supposed to keep them somewhat honest. They knew that oil is king...Americans are addicted to their cars and thousands of jobs and lots of campaign contributions roll in to the Gulf state legislators and on to others inside the beltway. Oil went from a corporate interest to a "national security" that meant spilling American blood to keep the oil flowing. We're now paying a long overdue bill for the excesses and lust for black gold.

The so-called "best case scenarios" were long shots at best...at best I heard the "Junk Shot" had a 60% of success...and that was from a BP source. Even 60% is a long way from 90 or 100%...and was still a failing grade where I come from. The drilling of relief wells has always been the best option...even better than the silly concept of "nuking".