Census Trouble: California Could Lose House Seat

[Kadie]

Apr 28, 2010 1:55 pm US/Pacific
Census Trouble: California Could Lose House Seat


WASHINGTON (AP) ― Five states -- New York, California, Texas, Arizona and Florida -- are close to losing out on congressional seats because of lackluster participation in the U.S. census.

Statistics released Wednesday show those states are average or below average in mailing back the 10-question census forms when compared to other states.

Of the five states on the cusp, the biggest potential losers are California, which could end up losing a House seat, and New York, which could have a net loss of two seats.

Texas may end up gaining just three House seats instead of four. Arizona and Florida may lose out on adding one or two House seats.

more...
http://cbs13.com/breakingnews/census.california.trouble.2.1662395.html

[Beaverhausen]

1. I have been hearing that people are leaving California

so maybe it's not just that the census isnt' being filled out...it's that people are gone.

[DJ13]

2. That was what I was thinking as well

[cascadiance]

3. One of 'em was me... Did so a year ago.

And Oregon looks like a state ready to pick up a seat. And if you look at this Washington Post article, ironically Minnesota has the second-highest response rate to the census at 80%, despite their wingbat congresswoman Michele Bachmann's call for them to work against the census.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/28/AR2010042804073.html

Census mail results could be trouble for 5 states
...
States such as Minnesota and Oregon are next in line to pick up seats. Minnesota had the nation's second-highest mail response at 80 percent - a clear boost in its effort to avert the loss of a seat, even after Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., made clear her view that the 10-question census was an invasion of privacy.

Perhaps Minnesotans have had enough of her BS, and are telling her to go "f herself!"! :)

If we can stay in control of the House, and Minnesota can pick up a seat, perhaps we can find a way of gerrymandering her into losing the next election and get her out of congress if she doesn't get voted out this coming term.

There were a LOT of people leaving the San Diego area, even before the meltdown hit, as it was one of the two most overpriced housing markets due to speculation in the country (Boston was the other). I think some newspapers showed that even a couple of years ago that for the first time more people were leaving that area than coming in in many years.

And that has probably hurt California a LOT during this downtrend. People like me who become unemployed actually can collect unemployment from California and then whatever state they moved to before moving to federal extensions if they worked in both states sufficiently during the previous 18 months. That probably hurts California's budget as well, when people are leaving and at this time they are more apt to take from their budget in this way.

[glinda]

11. Bachmann has strong support from her area. There are tons of Minnesotans

that think she is a nut bag. Some in her district seem to be not as happy with her though. Her District is just south of us. Blech*

[cascadiance]

15. Her own district has turned in 83% of their forms, compared to Wisconsin and Minnesota's 81% and 80%

which lead the country. Hmm... How do they support her again?

http://www.dane101.com/current/2010/04/28/wisconsin_aces_mailin_portion_of_census_2010

...
Wisconsin is joined in the top five by all upper Midwestern states. Minnesota came in second with an 80 percent return rate (and for those of you wondering, Rep. Michelle Bachmann's district had a return rate of 83 percent), Iowa and Indiana tie for third at 78 percent, and Michigan sent in a healthy 77 percent. The Green Bay and Fox Valley region of Wisconsin really stepped it up averaging 84 percent overall. Appleton and Eau Claire had the highest return rates in the state at 85 percent. The City of Madison had a return rate of 80 percent.

...

[glinda]

20. She would have lost her seat if they failed to garnish a big number. the bidzness

owners do not want to loose her as well as the religious over the edgers and the wealthy. They do not care what she says. It is what she does for them.

[wellstone dem]

12. Better yet

donate to her opponent at www.tarrylclark.com , then we don't have to gerrymander.

[Johonny]

4. It's hard to believe

California has been under represented for years as it is. Screwing us out of yet another house seat doesn't help.

[krabigirl]

8. Well, that might be good. There are way too many people here.

[Berry Cool]

5. Well, if that many people have really left, the Census Bureau will find out

when they follow up door to door.

[flamingdem]

24. SO WHAT'S UP WITH DOOR TO DOOR? Isn't that supposed to catch the laggards? nt

[XemaSab]

6. Depends on where in California the seat is lost if it's good or bad

Let's hope to God it's California's second district.

[Cleita]

7. I live in what is supposed to be the reddest congressional district in

California, the 22nd. Let it be mine.

[XemaSab]

9. Good call

but the 2nd is a runner-up. :o

[cascadiance]

13. From the sounds of it the expensive coastal communities are hit the hardest by declines...

... and would be more likely to lose seats than the inland counties of the state.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060316/news_1n16pop.html

But if San Diego is one area that might lose a seat then hopefully we can have it be one of the Republicans in that area. Given that San Diego has been a recent center of the housing meltdown I wouldn't be surprised if it does.

But the trend of the census stats this year do seem to point to the heavily populated areas of the country all over the place are the ones that are suffering population loss (like New York and California). I think this is what happens when you lose the middle class and they can no longer afford big city rents and houses... Hopefully that doesn't f with the Dems too much in House seats.

That makes this election that much more important that we can maintain majorities, to help keep us from losing seats due to gerry mandering that will come later.

[Nikki Stone1]

16. Coastal San Diego: Brian Bilbray (R)

Here's hoping.....

[cascadiance]

18. or Darryl Issa... Maybe merge them into one district?

And have some of the coastal and southern part of the district areas brought more under some of Susan Davis's district in the 53rd.

Though from the sounds of it, district 50 is one that might flip to the Dems this election, so if that happens, then perhaps another strategy should be found to keep that district and shut down Issa's or Hunter's. Perhaps move a lot of Issa's district up into the growing Riverside county district to the north, and some of what's south down in to 50 or the 53rd in a way to strengthen both of them to be Democratic seats.

[XemaSab]

21. My impression is that the Valley has been the hardest hit

both with the housing collapse and the drought.

[bridgit]

10. I'll give back Duncan Hunter's seat sight unseen

[csziggy]

14. You can see how your area is doing on the Census

At this link: http://2010.census.gov/2010census/take10map/

My immediate neighborhood is at 73-78% return rate. Florida overall is at 72%, our county is at 70% which surprises me. Wonder why I have not gotten a call from the Census Bureau. I got a high score on the test so I should have been up for a job!

[fishwax]

19. Odd -- looks like 41 of the top 50 cities by response rate are from four states: MI, IL, MN, and WI

The top five states are all clustered in the Midwest/Upper Midwest, and most of the top towns are as well.

Cool site, though -- thanks for the link :toast:

[Odin2005]

23. Minnesota is 80% 2nd only after Wisconsin!

[Hawaii Hiker]

17. That would really suck for CA. to lose a House seat (and an electoral vote) esp. when

the population has increased since 2000...

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06000.html

[RobertPlant]

22. why would California lose a seat?

they've gained 2 or 3 million people over the last ten years