Who's ahead, Brown or Coakley? Depends on the poll

[TomCADem]

Source: Boston Globe

No one could blame a Massachusetts voter for being confused about which way the electorate is leaning these days. A raft of polls over the past two weeks have offered widely varying snapshots of voter sentiments looking ahead to Tuesday, when they go to the ballot box to choose between Attorney General Martha Coakley, state Senator Scott P. Brown and independent Joseph L. Kennedy.

The polls are all attempting to measure the same thing, but they use widely different methodologies. Some are more scientific than others, and some are sponsored by partisan groups with an interest in the outcome.

"God, what a puzzle," said Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of pollster.com, who has been sifting through the results of eight polls released this month. "My advice to a voter would be to say that the only thing we can say with any scientific precision is that it's looking like it will be a close race, and go vote if you want your voice to be heard."

Pollsters love to argue, in any race, about which methods best determine who is likely to vote. An added concern this time around is how to fix on likely voters in a rare special election held in mid-winter.


Read more: http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/is_brown_pullin.html

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Well, it seems like the outcome is going to largely depend on turnout perhaps more than most elections.

[merwin]

1. If liberals turned out to vote at the same levels as cons

especially younger voters, we could win most every election. it's about motivation, and liberals tend to be (in general) less motivated... especially college students.

[No Elephants]

2. Exactly. the name of the game for Tuesday is turnout.

that can be a problem for both sides with a special election. However, in this case, Brown supporters will be fired up; and it's easy for Democrats in Massachusetts to be complacent.

I am hoping that publicizing polls showing Brown ahead will motivate Democrats to turn out. If not, we're screwn.