H1N1 flu pandemic could be mildest ever documented

[babylonsister]

Flu pandemic could be mild
H1N1 toll likely to be lower, but vaccinations are still encouraged

By Rob Stein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 8, 2009


With the second wave of H1N1 infections having crested in the United States, leading epidemiologists are predicting that the pandemic could end up ranking as the mildest since modern medicine began documenting influenza outbreaks.

Experts warn that the flu is notoriously unpredictable, but several recent analyses, including one released late Monday, indicate that the death toll is likely to be far lower than the number of fatalities caused by past pandemics.

The predictions are being met with a mix of skepticism, relief and trepidation: Public health officials worry that people may become complacent about getting vaccinated, which could prove disastrous if a third wave of infections swells later this winter or the virus mutates into a more dangerous form.

"I think it is very likely to be the mildest pandemic on record," said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, who led a federally funded analysis with researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and elsewhere published online Monday by the journal PLoS Medicine.

more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/07/AR2009120703162.html

[YOY]

1. Well that's a "no kidding"

n/t

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

2. Great news. This is what people at the CDC and public health agencies have beeen hoping for.

Hopefully the trend will continue.

[HuckleB]

48. +1

[Hannah Bell]

3. no! the 1918 flu! mutation! kills the young! aeeeiiiiiii!

[jwirr]

7. And came in waves. It does seem that it is slowing down.

[Mythbuster]

11. D255G... it's already mutated.

It's just a matter of whether the D255G mutation spreads human to human.

[Hannah Bell]

12. viruses mutate regularly.

[Mythbuster]

21. Why of course they do...

However the significance of the D255G mutation that has just occurred, is that it essentially turns H1N1 flu into one with the same characteristics that made the 1918 flu so incredibly deadly. The new mutation is responsible for pulmonary bleeding along with the devastating effects of the cytokine storm already seen with H1N1. The waiting game now is to see if the new, even deadlier mutation will pass human to human... if so, that ain't gonna be a good thing come February.

[mrs_p]

38. on the ha gene??

on the HA gene, 255 is kinda sorta near the binding pocket -- not an antigenic site. can you provide a link to why this is responsible for a cytokine storm? as an influenza researcher, i'm not sure this even means anything...

[Mythbuster]

72. Sorry about the phrasing

"The new mutation is responsible for pulmonary bleeding along with the devastating effects of the cytokine storm already seen with H1N1."

It wasn't intend to attribute cytokine storm to the mutation, I was referring to them happening together. Poor phrasing on my part.

[mrs_p]

74. no worries

but i think you should know that a mutation at the binding site "could" alter the conformation of the viral protein in such a way that it "could" affect what species the virus infects -- it actually wouldn't contribute to a host's response so much as to what host could be infected. hope that makes sense b/c it is an important point to consider...

[Hannah Bell]

73. i think you're a parrot. There's no confirmed H1N1 deaths involving "cytokine storm".

That's speculation, & "cytokine storm" itself is a construct.

"Recent reports of high mortality among healthy young adults in the 2009 swine flu outbreak has led to speculation that cytokine storms could be responsible for these deaths.<9> However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have indicated that symptoms reported from this strain so far are similar to those of normal seasonal flu,<10> with the CDC stating that there is "insufficient information to date about clinical complications of this variant of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus infection."

[Mythbuster]

75. Well... my bad then.

Sorry if I came across as a "parrot" to you. I'm not an epidemiologist or a virologist, so I suppose anything I post regarding H1N1 would be to some extent "parroting" of information I've read, similar to all the "non-politicians" that post political theories and opinions. Thanks for your perspective.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

22. Is there a point to your hysteria?

[taught_me_patience]

4. Probably due to the vaccination campaign

and tamiflu.

[endless october]

5. good, glad to hear it.

isn't that the optimal outcome? that the strategy we chose to fight the pandemic has worked, for the most part?

[NNN0LHI]

6. Every pandemic since 1918 has been milder than the last one

That is what advancements in medicine does.

Don

[theophilus]

8. Glad to hear it. I think we were pretty prepared but there needs

to be a faster way approved to make vaccines. Much too slow, imo.

[seabeyond]

17. pretty prepared? that would be vac coming out a good 2 months AFTER h1n1 came thru town

and on limited supply, way short to provide?

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

23. We could have had it out months sooner if we didn't test it.

[seabeyond]

28. ya... there is the answer. but not the point. others threads talk fear fear fear

so much fear our kids sit in house and dont play outside.

now with that, duers readily get on and sya, bad parents for buying into the fear

yet we have the same thing with the flu and other diseases.

oh no, we are all gonna die

and we dont. doesnt happen. the same fear tactics adn this h1n1 is just another of them. yet... it is du's pet cause and few people comeo on and call out there fear propaganda.

further

if anyone says it they are denigrated to a point of shutting up

we didnt all die

we didnt all die with sars, west niles and the others

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

30. So it's fear and not TVs Wi's and Xboxes keeping kids inside. LOL.

[seabeyond]

32. i was just telling you about the thread. AND could be that parents are working

and kids have to stay inside. i think there are a lot of factors. really doesnt have much to do with us.... my kids and neighborhood kids roam the neighborhood.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

34. I haven't seen a single thread telling parents to keep kids inside because of H1N1.

[seabeyond]

35. hm. cool enough. i havent either. but then that wasnt what i posted about either, lol. nt

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

39. You're right said so much fear our kids sit in house and dont play outside.

But then you said your kids do play outside as do all the nieghborhood kids. You seem confused.

[seabeyond]

43. i am sorry. the other thread was about kids being so afraid of stranger danger

they didnt play outside. my bad. i am reading a book, typing and have to get shopping, lol

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

46. Don't forget the coupons. Take care.

[HughMoran]

9. Yep, we lost dozens of man-hours to it and one woman ended up in the hospital with pneumonia

...but all are good now. I don't think I got it so I will probably get vaccinated.

[jumptheshadow]

10. Not in my world...

which is a more international world than most. It is alive and well and kicking posterior.

[parts]

13. great news /nt

[Fly by night]

14. Been saying that here for the past year (and getting slammed by trolls for it) ...

... so I am glad to see the WP reporting on it.

When I discovered that CDC (where I once worked) was reporting H1N1 incidence this year by combining the cases from two flu seasons to maintain the hype, I knew we were once again using a disease as a weapon of mass distraction.

Last year, I interviewed to be the pandemic disease coordinator for the TN Department of Health. Having seen so much damage caused by similar "the sky is falling!!" bull-shit early on in the HIV epidemic, I told them that I define epidemiologist as "truth-teller" and that I would not want a job that used epidemics (mild or not) to stir up (and distract) the population from other important issues, health and otherwise.

I didn't get the job.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

26. Why would they report the cases of a novel flu strain occuring out of flu season like seasonal flu?

[The Straight Story]

15. There is good money in vaccines :) (nt)

[seabeyond]

16. we arent gonna.... all die? nt

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

24. No one ever said we were. The worst case scenario calculations were at most 1%.

[seabeyond]

29. bullshit. people where flat out saying if you didnt get vac you were a murderer

how dare not get the shot (that wasnt available) cause you may cause someone else to die.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

31. Produce a link of someone saying that we were ALL going to die.

[seabeyond]

33. you know... that is an extreme. as you know, i am not off with the hyperbole of it either

mass panic here around the beginning of oct. and i believe, it was pointed out to you about the posters accusing people of murder if they didnt get the shot.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

37. You implied people said we were all going to die I said they didn't you said BS. LOL.

Now you say that you were talking about people calling people murderers.

[seabeyond]

44. i said we are all gonna die cause of the mentality. but i bet you get all that. nt

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

47. Thanks for clearing it up.

[mwb970]

18. I don't know, SARS seemed kind of mild.

What about bird flu? Alar? Killer bees?

[NNN0LHI]

19. So mild that none of those ever became pandemics

[The Backlash Cometh]

20. Thank God.

I would like to believe that modern prevention methods helped out a little bit. ,

[trotsky]

25. This reminds me of Y2K.

People sounded the alarm bells, and LOTS of work was done. At 12:00am on 1/1/2000 when nothing happened, all the uninformed said, "SEE? IT WAS NOTHING, YOU STUPID ALARMISTS!"

Completely oblivious to the millions of person-hours put in behind the scenes to ensure just that: nothing happening.

[Romulox]

27. I love our our gov't said: "Everybody MUST get the vaccine!", then "Ooops! Not enough vaccine!" nt

[trotsky]

36. I'm sorry, but when exactly did the government mandate H1N1 vaccination?

Perhaps you could link to the CDC announcement to this effect.

[Romulox]

40. Nobody said "mandate". The President "strongly recommended" all Americans receive the vaccine

Then later came out and told us that there wouldn't be nearly enough for everyone that he had "strongly recommended" receive the vaccine to actually, you know, receive the vaccine.

/constantly amazed at how 2 months ago is ancient history in DU terms. :shrug:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-on-2009-H1N1-National-Preparedness-and-Response/

[trotsky]

50. You said the government said we "MUST" get the vaccine.

Does "strongly recommend" = "MUST"?

Or did you misspeak, and you'd like to retract your original erroneous statement now?

[Romulox]

53. For your convenience, a link to M-W.com

An argument insisting that only one (of a half dozen) meanings of a word is the only one possible is a new low (even for DU).


http://m-w.com/dictionary/must

[trotsky]

56. You're the one who used quotation marks.

You claimed the government said: "Everybody MUST get the vaccine!"

I asked for a link to the announcement that said that.

Instead of simply admitting you exaggerated/misspoke/etc., you're now weaseling out and lashing back at those of us who are asking for accuracy.

You still have a chance, just admit you misspoke.

Or just lash out at me some more. That in no way is a low for DU - happens more often than not when someone gets called on to back up what they said.

[Romulox]

57. This is beyond pathetic. I have clarified my meaning. What more is there to discuss in this vein?

:eyes:

[trotsky]

58. What's left is to admit it wasn't a quote from the government.

I.e., admit you were wrong and simply exaggerating for effect. Can you do that?

[Romulox]

59. It was never represented as a quote from the government.

Again, arguing a point that was not intended after clarification has been (painfully) established is infantile.

[trotsky]

60. "I love our our gov't said: 'Everybody MUST get the vaccine!', then 'Ooops! Not enough vaccine!' nt"

That's what you wrote. It's the subject line of your post #27. So to claim "our government said" something and then put that something in quotes immediately after, is NOT representing it as a quote from the government?

You can continue to call me names and lash out at me - I find it hilarious the lengths to which you're willing to go in order to avoid admitting you were wrong. :rofl:

[Romulox]

61. If you think that "Oops! Not enough vaccine!" is being represented as a "quote from our gov't"

your education isn't complete. :shrug:

[trotsky]

62. Keep the insults coming!

Loving it! :rofl:

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

65. Here's your education.

Using Quotation Marks

The primary function of quotation marks is to set off and represent exact language (either spoken or written) that has come from somebody else.

http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/577/01 /

[Romulox]

67. This is the stupidest subthread I've ever been a part of. Kudos. nt

[trotsky]

69. Your dual juvenile obsession..

with A) not being able to simply admit you were wrong, and B) needing to put in the last word with an insult has kept it going. Nice job! :thumbsup:

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

71. You have certainly dumbed it way down. Congrats.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

41. You wouldn't have a link to our government saying that would you?

[Romulox]

42. constantly amazed at how 2 months ago is ancient history in DU terms.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7182766#7195881

:hi:

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

45. I was looking for that "Everyone MUST get the vaccine" statement you quoted.

[Romulox]

49. I provided a link to precisely what I was I referring to.

You'd like to argue a point I did not make, but I'm not interested in that. :hi:

[trotsky]

51. You should at least be interested in backing up your own words.

However, you appear to be running away from them now.

[Romulox]

52. And *you* should learn how a subthread works.

At any rate, why don't you two belligerent guys hook up with one another? You seem to be operating with the same mentality. :hi:

[trotsky]

54. Yeah, the same crazy mentality that insists people use accurate...

and not inflammatory, inaccurate words. :hi:

[Romulox]

55. You could've read the link to M-W.com in the time it took you to post this.

This is the most pathetic argument I've ever read on DU. :hi:

[Roon]

63. Who you all waving at?

:hi:

[Romulox]

68. Who in god's name are you? Come to argue the meaning of "must"

when the exact and precise meaning of my statement has been clear for hours? :silly:

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

64. Here's a little english lesson for you. It will help you in the future.

Using Quotation Marks

The primary function of quotation marks is to set off and represent exact language (either spoken or written) that has come from somebody else.

http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/577/01/

[Romulox]

66. Masters of the language can (and do) bend the rules all the time

especially when the intended meaning is blindingly clear from context.

At any rate, didn't you start this subthread by parsing the word "must"? You're ridiculous. :hi:

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

70. What ridiculous is making idiotic statements and getting pissed when you get called on them.