http://pnhp.org/blog/2009/11/04/cbo-on-premiums-and-cost-sharing-of-the-house-bill/http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/106xx/doc10691/hr3962SubsidiesRangelLtr.pdf"Letter from CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf
Congressional Budget Office
November 2, 2009
This letter responds to questions about the subsidies that enrollees would receive for premiums and cost sharing and the amounts that they would have to pay, on average, if they purchased a relatively low cost plan in the new insurance exchanges to be established under H.R. 3962, the Affordable Health Care for America Act, as introduced in the House of Representatives on October 29, 2009.
The enclosed table focuses on enrollees who purchase a “reference” plan (the premiums for which equal the average of the three lowest-cost “basic” plans, as defined in the bill), because federal subsidies would be tied to that average. Such a plan would have an actuarial value of 70 percent, which represents the average share of costs for covered benefits that would be paid by the plan.
Although premiums under H.R. 3962 would vary by geographic area to reflect differences in average spending for health care and would also vary by age, the table shows the approximate national average for that lower-cost reference plan — about $5,300 for single policies and about $15,000 for family policies in 2016. Enrollees could purchase a more expensive plan or more extensive coverage for an additional, unsubsidized premium — and CBO anticipates that many enrollees would do that, so the average premiums actually paid in the exchanges would be higher (although average cost-sharing amounts could be lower than those shown in the table).Estimate for “Reference Plan” in 2016 — Average of 3 Lowest-Cost Basic Plans:
Family Policy:
70% – Actuarial value
$15,000 – Average premium
$5,500 – Average cost sharing
One example – a family of four at a higher income level:
400-450% – Income relative to the federal poverty level
no cap – Premium cap as a share of income
$102,100 – Middle of income range
$15,000 – Enrollee premium in reference plan
0% – Premium subsidy (share of premium)
none – Average cost sharing subsidy
$5,500 – Average net cost sharing
$20,500 – Enrollee premium + average cost sharing
20% – Premium + cost sharing as a percent of income
......"