reading tea leaves of torture special prosecutor & health care reform

[yurbud]

Obama's appointment of a special prosecutor gives me hope for a good outcome of the health care debate.

One thing we learned about Obama in his campaign for the presidency is he is an excellent chess player. Although the fight with Hillary seemed to go on and on, Obama already knew the outcome. Likewise, several of McCain's best aimed shots at him either backfired or Obama turned them to his advantage.

What does this have to do with the health care debate? If the special prosecutor follows the evidence to its logical conclusion, indicting Bush & Cheney, the howls of the right (or more accurately their corporate owners)will make it look like they were taking a nap during the health care debate. To weather a storm like that, Obama will need substantial political capital and public support.

The special prosecutor's investigation will likely not get to the real players until after the health care debate is settled. If Obama doesn't have substantial, almost unassailable, public support and trust, he might not politically survive the shitstorm the right will cause over the torture investigation. How will he get so much wind at his back? By passing health care reform that progressives and independents (not necessarily blue dogs and other so-called "moderate" Democrats) will be happy with. To allow AG Eric Holder to appoint a special prosecutor, he must know that he has that health care outcome in the bag.

It could well be that some of his other unsettling actions were a way to neutralize players who could have jammed up that happy outcome. For example, as disgusted as I was by the Wall St. bailout, that will keep those assholes off his back for a while. Likewise, the deal with pharma will be easier to undo once a public option is in place, and has the real, not just hypothetical, power to demand lower drug prices.

All of this nonsense with the syphillically corrupt blue dogs may just be a repeat of his dance with Hillary in the primaries--he lets them thrash and bellow to distract from the fact that the deal is already done.

Obama is not stupid. He plans ahead. He will not let a handful of corrupt Democrats and the corrupter right screw up something that will cement the Democratic majority for a generation and secure his place in history (as well as his second term).

But I could be wrong.

[Vincardog]

1. I really really really hope you are correct. Time will tell

[yurbud]

2. it's a stretch, but it's hard to imagine Obama moving on torture if health care reform is going to

be a wash at best.