Open Left: Jobless Non-Recovery

[marmar]

Jobless Non-Recovery
by: Mike Lux

Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 09:00


(Speaking of populist backlash, apparently Wall Streeters think there is too. - promoted by Mike Lux)


I hate the phrase "jobless recovery". If people are not getting decent employment, there is no such thing as a recovery. It doesn't matter if corporate profits go up, if the Dow Jones rebounds, if Goldman Sachs honchos got record bonuses, if the Gross National Product rises. What matters is whether regular folks are feeling any difference in their lives. And when you hear the phrase "but jobs are a lagging indicator", let's be clear: that's just another way of saying trickle-down economics.

About 20% of adult Americans are either officially unemployed, have given up looking for work, or are involuntarily working part-time or at temporary jobs. As long as that stays true, we can be very clear about what the consequences are:

* Foreclosure rates will keep going up, and housing prices won't start to recover

* State and local government will continue to be broke, and the federal deficit will continue to rise

* Our manufacturing base will continue to be in desperate shape


In other words, our economy- the real economy- will not start getting better. I know that the big banks' executives will be getting huge bonuses, and I'm sure they will be spending that money around like manure, making things grow and all that. But the real economy will not be getting any better.

I hope the President understands that, and understands very keenly how much his fate is tied to real people getting real jobs. His political project will be dead in the water unless the real economy- not Wall Street profits, not the stock market, but real jobs for real people- starts to get better reasonably soon.

The American people like President Obama so far. They know he inherited a big mess, and they know he's working hard to fix it. They are willing to be patient for awhile. But they don't want to be the ones who are the lagging indicators.

There are some very specific things our government can do to create jobs: invest a lot more in infrastructure projects and green jobs, for example. Give the same kind of help to emerging industries that virtually every other industrialized country does. Negotiate tougher with China on currency manipulation. This ain't rocket science, and it needs to happen sooner rather than later.

There is a populist backlash brewing in this country. Folks are going to blame somebody for this economy. I would personally rather it be the banks than President Obama, but that will only be the case if President Obama is making real progress on jobs.


http://www.openleft.com/diary/13922/jobless-nonrecovery

[corpseratemedia]

1. I'm so sick of Greenspan's/Norquist's watersports economy

the msm will have to be covering MJ 24/7 for the next several years to hide the non-recovery

[CoffeeCat]

2. Unfortunately, this is Obama's problem...

...and the responsibility rests squarely on his shoulders.

Obama was handed a bag of bombs, as Junior exited the White House. The house of cards
began tumbling as Junior exited, but in a year or so--no one will remember that his disaster
was another Bush failure.

Obama will be blamed for all of this. Which is why I wish he would boot Geithner and the
rest of the Wall Street kow towers who helped create this mess. They don't have the solutions
because they were part of the problem.

We need a revolution. We need someone who will tell the banks, Wall Street, the credit-card
companies and the rest of corporate America that they are not entitled to untold profits
at the expense of the rest of the country.

Until that happens, the economy will not improve.

[Hydra]

6. Well said

This is what I did when Obama could have picked the brightest minds in the country to fix things, and hired the same people from Wall St. that created the problem:

:wtf:

We are told President Obama is a smart man...so why are the foxes still guarding the henhouse?

[OhioChick]

8. Bingo! n/t

[Greyhound]

3. Oh Goody! I get to send this to the Greatest Page.

I wish and hope that I am and always have been completely wrong about Obama, unfortunately we're six months in and it's still looking like I was right all along.

He hasn't done or supported one thing that will address the root causes of this debacle and the more time passes, and as the American memory sieve empties, he will get all the blame for the problems he didn't create, but failed to fix.
:kick: & R

[MannyGoldstein]

4. The Paulson/Summers/Geithner/Obama Plan Has Worked!

For bankers.

Screw the rest of us chattel. We suck.

[jmondine]

5. The people's patience will only last until November 2010

[bonzotex]

7. I'm gonna call a bit of BS on Lux's view

I read this earlier and it is some really pessimistic shit. Frankly, this echoes a lot of doom and gloom right wing propaganda, but with a progressive soundtrack overlaid. It also overestimates how much any Executive Administration or one gifted politician can achieve by themselves. Obama may get the lion's share of blame if we suffer 4 yrs of "jobless non-recovery" but the majority of the fault will lie with legislature that fights and waters down every substantive proposal for progressive change.

The United States is still the richest Nation in the world with the highest GDP by far. As bad as our trade deficits are, we are still the third largest exporter after China and Germany. We still manufacture a lot of premium goods and can do so much more. We have a well educated and very productive workforce and a strong entrepreneurial class that is just beginning to respond some of the opportunities of the Green economy. Yes these sectors need to be stimulated and given tax incentives, but we are seeing that already. He's right that Bush and the disaster capitalists have left us swimming in liquid shit, but a very strong recovery is absolutely possible, even probable, even with some of the 1/2 assed measures taken so far.

There is a lot that is poised to go very right with our politics and economy if we have the balls to force our government to make the necessary changes. National Health care reform is the first big piece that will make a huge difference for all Americans and American businesses - thus jobs. If the Obama admin and the gutless Dems screw that one up, then Lux's fears have more foundation.

I'm not going to write off the 2010, 2012 elections just yet. Rather than just wringing our hands over the tepid reforms so far; we have to keep pushing. We need better Democrats. Until then, we have to kick the ones we have in the ass until they do the right thing in spite of themselves.