Establishment Support Doesn't Necessarily Help Specter

[babylonsister]

http://www.openleft.com/diary/13605/establishment-support-doesnt-necessarily-help-specter

Establishment Support Doesn't Necessarily Help Specter
by: Chris Bowers
Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 00:00


snip//

Only 28% of Pennsylvania Democrats would prefer an uncontested primary for Senate next year. While such an awkwardly worded question does not have a direct implication on Joe Sestak's chances, it does show a potential danger for Arlen Specter in receiving so much establishment support. Voters don't like having elections decided for them.

There could be just as much, if not more, blowback than benefit, for Arlen Specter in trotting out endorsement after endorsement. One case in point would be Howard Dean's 2004 presidential election campaign, which began to backslide heavily in late December and early January even as Dean kept trotting out endorsement after endorsement. Another example would be Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Senate primary, when he was endorsed by virtually every Democrat in the country, including Bill Clinton. Further, in 2008, Barack Obama kept surging through January and February, even though Hillary Clinton kept the lead in superdelegate endorsements until early March.

Waves of endorsements often proved helpful for a short-term boast, but almost appear to be detrimental over the long term. "Vote for me, because X likes me," is not a very convincing argument. It shifts focus away from the candidate, and can even point of deficits between the candidate being endorsed and the famous Democrat doing the endorsing. "Senator X and I disagree on just about everything that is important, but vote for him anyway," is also not a convincing campaign argument.. Such endorsements might be especially ineffective for Democrats, who like to view themselves as unbiased individuals making up their own minds based on facts rather than pre-existing beliefs.

Endorsements don't necessarily seal anything in Democratic primaries. Further, as the poll above shows, there is clear potential for using such endorsements to create blowback among voters by arguing they sense that someone is trying to decide the election for them. Don't think for a moment that Pennsylvania Democrats say "how high" when Ed Rendell asks them to jump (Rendell wasn't even endorsed by the Democratic state committee when he ran for Governor). They probably will ask "how high" if President Obama asks them to jump, but it remains to be seen just how hard Obama will campaign for Specter.

[nolabels]

1. Nobody likes others deciding what should be best

Though many new homes have roomy bathrooms no home builder or remodeler would ever dare design a men's urinal in the plans.

Instinctively many know at very basic gut level what will get the nod and demand for more :shrug: