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Since 1972, the GOP has been trying to hold together a coalition of northern fiscal conservatives who are socially moderate and southern populist, religious social conservatives. The center of gravity of the party has been shifting ever southward. Virtually the entire leadership of the party is from the old Confederacy. They are now locked in a Faustian bargain with the Evangelicals (irony intended) which make them unable to compromise on social issues while their reputation on fiscal ones has eroded.
If southern states like Virginia and NC make a strong shift towards the Democratic party, and this holds for 8 years, the electoral college will be VERY bleak for the GOP for a long, long time UNLESS they can find a new coalition partner for their masters on the Christian right. There was some thought that Catholic Hispanics might be that group, but they place economic issues over social ones (that's why so many have migrated here instead of staying in a more culturally comfortable place) which leads them to the Democratic party.
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